CPHC在報文中表示霍涅有可能跨線 但原則上還是認定在跨線前消散機率較大
It should be noted that Hone or its remnants could become involved with a
large mid- to upper-level low near the International Dateline at about 120 h,
with the global models showing a surface low in the area. Currently, it is
not clear whether if this low is Hone or a new formation, and until there is
more clarity, the forecast continues to show Hone dissipating by this time.
主要參考資料是GFS
https://i.meee.com.tw/XizQYiD.png
EC似乎不支持這個系統了
https://i.meee.com.tw/kOQUI94.png
向日葵九號已經可以看到他了 基本上還是有對流在維持結構
https://i.meee.com.tw/xaZy70e.jpg
霍涅所在的地區風切仍然很大 但看起來再撐一陣子沒被切死就還好了
https://i.meee.com.tw/HfkDjZR.png
同樣地，再撐一陣子就能到暖水區了
https://i.meee.com.tw/1RhPvQU.png
如果真的撐過去了，估計又會活過來了
感覺是可以觀察的系統