關於有沒有保底這回事，誰也拿不出證據。
爭論沒有意義，不如做點實驗，
大家用自己喜歡的觀點看待都市傳說就好。
用python跑點簡單的實驗 觀察數字分布
沒有保底，81取2，每張機率均等抽10000張
python code
http://survivor.ntu.edu.tw/maybaodi.py
黑妍數量: 248
10000抽之中中黑妍的編號
[9, 11, 59, 126, 141, 153, 220, 222, 233, 248, 250, 448, 467, 483, 487, 512,
541, 563, 602, 615, 668, 671, 724, 727, 753, 801, 857, 920, 1005, 1009, 1083,
1220, 1250, 1294, 1310, 1321, 1460, 1498, 1518, 1551, 1667, 1697, 1721, 1735,
1764, 1810, 1842, 1845, 1884, 1969, 1989, 2030, 2032, 2056, 2061, 2074, 2131,
2146, 2224, 2289, 2339, 2361, 2367, 2387, 2482, 2565, 2588, 2644, 2645, 2650,
2657, 2679, 2698, 2720, 2772, 2776, 2781, 2782, 2950, 2956, 2994, 3028, 3031,
3046, 3100, 3159, 3239, 3265, 3308, 3318, 3477, 3492, 3495, 3575, 3579, 3623,
3682, 3884, 3950, 3955, 3992, 4041, 4092, 4101, 4102, 4167, 4235, 4267, 4269,
4276, 4295, 4311, 4313, 4413, 4490, 4502, 4554, 4669, 4735, 4751, 4773, 4803,
4908, 4971, 5058, 5065, 5127, 5159, 5169, 5249, 5250, 5269, 5276, 5308, 5319,
5343, 5426, 5457, 5519, 5558, 5561, 5563, 5585, 5651, 5653, 5753, 5878, 5914,
5935, 5939, 5941, 6077, 6117, 6168, 6192, 6194, 6256, 6298, 6315, 6364, 6387,
6502, 6547, 6564, 6576, 6584, 6631, 6671, 6702, 6726, 6738, 6816, 6874, 6892,
6982, 7006, 7136, 7166, 7168, 7182, 7240, 7249, 7263, 7304, 7338, 7547, 7614,
7639, 7659, 7661, 7749, 7754, 7792, 7806, 7842, 7872, 7910, 7924, 7980, 8080,
8086, 8088, 8248, 8266, 8298, 8332, 8340, 8360, 8452, 8466, 8539, 8575, 8629,
8663, 8699, 8708, 8758, 8781, 8855, 8892, 8938, 9086, 9119, 9168, 9178, 9283,
9287, 9303, 9324, 9480, 9494, 9514, 9547, 9569, 9582, 9624, 9626, 9695, 9707,
9716, 9751, 9816, 9838, 9851, 9894, 9938, 9940, 9967]
兩次抽到黑妍之間的張數
[2, 48, 67, 15, 12, 67, 2, 11, 15, 2, 198, 19, 16, 4, 25, 29, 22, 39, 13, 53,
3, 53, 3, 26, 48, 56, 63, 85, 4, 74, 137, 30, 44, 16, 11, 139, 38, 20, 33,
116, 30, 24, 14, 29, 46, 32, 3, 39, 85, 20, 41, 2, 24, 5, 13, 57, 15, 78, 65,
50, 22, 6, 20, 95, 83, 23, 56, 1, 5, 7, 22, 19, 22, 52, 4, 5, 1, 168, 6, 38,
34, 3, 15, 54, 59, 80, 26, 43, 10, 159, 15, 3, 80, 4, 44, 59, 202, 66, 5, 37,
49, 51, 9, 1, 65, 68, 32, 2, 7, 19, 16, 2, 100, 77, 12, 52, 115, 66, 16, 22,
30, 105, 63, 87, 7, 62, 32, 10, 80, 1, 19, 7, 32, 11, 24, 83, 31, 62, 39, 3,
2, 22, 66, 2, 100, 125, 36, 21, 4, 2, 136, 40, 51, 24, 2, 62, 42, 17, 49, 23,
115, 45, 17, 12, 8, 47, 40, 31, 24, 12, 78, 58, 18, 90, 24, 130, 30, 2, 14,
58, 9, 14, 41, 34, 209, 67, 25, 20, 2, 88, 5, 38, 14, 36, 30, 38, 14, 56,
100, 6, 2, 160, 18, 32, 34, 8, 20, 92, 14, 73, 36, 54, 34, 36, 9, 50, 23, 74,
37, 46, 148, 33, 49, 10, 105, 4, 16, 21, 156, 14, 20, 33, 22, 13, 42, 2, 69,
12, 9, 35, 65, 22, 13, 43, 44, 2, 27]
有保底
保底機制:
(1)先隨便抽，機率均等，並記錄累積未中數量
(2)當累積未中數量達到30 黑妍機率變45%
31 50%
32 55%
...
39 90%
大於等於40 95%
(3)無論於均等機率或是提升機率時抽中黑妍，累積未中數量重置
一樣抽10000張
python code
http://survivor.ntu.edu.tw/yobaodi.py
黑妍數量: 455
10000抽之中中黑妍的編號
[13, 17, 48, 79, 110, 119, 125, 156, 188, 193, 200, 226, 257, 288, 319, 323,
354, 363, 386, 417, 448, 474, 486, 498, 529, 559, 590, 621, 652, 683, 711,
742, 772, 795, 827, 844, 875, 888, 895, 900, 931, 948, 979, 1005, 1036, 1067,
1098, 1129, 1130, 1132, 1163, 1168, 1197, 1200, 1205, 1236, 1249, 1256, 1286,
1318, 1349, 1365, 1386, 1417, 1418, 1424, 1440, 1456, 1470, 1501, 1512, 1525,
1553, 1584, 1602, 1616, 1647, 1659, 1679, 1710, 1719, 1750, 1752, 1783, 1803,
1828, 1834, 1849, 1880, 1911, 1927, 1958, 1990, 2022, 2053, 2085, 2104, 2115,
2116, 2118, 2146, 2177, 2208, 2239, 2270, 2301, 2318, 2349, 2380, 2411, 2415,
2422, 2429, 2435, 2466, 2487, 2499, 2529, 2543, 2549, 2554, 2557, 2582, 2613,
2644, 2675, 2686, 2717, 2733, 2764, 2795, 2826, 2857, 2880, 2912, 2913, 2944,
2975, 3006, 3037, 3040, 3050, 3061, 3093, 3122, 3127, 3159, 3176, 3208, 3239,
3243, 3274, 3304, 3335, 3366, 3381, 3408, 3409, 3413, 3436, 3454, 3485, 3510,
3541, 3554, 3583, 3614, 3645, 3676, 3703, 3728, 3759, 3790, 3822, 3828, 3859,
3861, 3874, 3905, 3936, 3951, 3968, 3999, 4008, 4024, 4055, 4056, 4088, 4119,
4150, 4172, 4203, 4234, 4235, 4252, 4283, 4314, 4345, 4346, 4366, 4397, 4428,
4432, 4463, 4478, 4509, 4526, 4551, 4575, 4598, 4607, 4628, 4650, 4681, 4712,
4725, 4747, 4778, 4809, 4840, 4871, 4897, 4928, 4930, 4961, 4992, 5023, 5048,
5071, 5077, 5108, 5112, 5120, 5128, 5159, 5178, 5209, 5241, 5242, 5273, 5277,
5278, 5304, 5336, 5347, 5378, 5400, 5431, 5462, 5493, 5524, 5555, 5587, 5601,
5632, 5663, 5694, 5725, 5736, 5749, 5780, 5799, 5819, 5830, 5861, 5864, 5878,
5909, 5928, 5954, 5985, 5991, 6014, 6039, 6070, 6075, 6079, 6110, 6129, 6160,
6191, 6204, 6217, 6248, 6267, 6294, 6325, 6340, 6364, 6377, 6400, 6431, 6462,
6473, 6504, 6507, 6523, 6554, 6574, 6605, 6606, 6637, 6668, 6678, 6709, 6740,
6750, 6753, 6755, 6786, 6817, 6828, 6839, 6870, 6901, 6932, 6963, 6964, 6991,
7022, 7053, 7084, 7096, 7120, 7151, 7182, 7194, 7211, 7220, 7239, 7270, 7298,
7329, 7360, 7391, 7422, 7453, 7465, 7493, 7521, 7552, 7563, 7568, 7599, 7610,
7641, 7663, 7693, 7724, 7755, 7780, 7811, 7842, 7873, 7904, 7921, 7953, 7984,
8010, 8034, 8044, 8049, 8080, 8111, 8116, 8117, 8120, 8151, 8153, 8184, 8215,
8216, 8223, 8254, 8271, 8302, 8303, 8314, 8343, 8374, 8405, 8436, 8468, 8491,
8522, 8544, 8575, 8579, 8593, 8625, 8634, 8650, 8661, 8662, 8693, 8724, 8751,
8774, 8805, 8825, 8856, 8874, 8899, 8905, 8936, 8947, 8960, 8963, 8980, 8989,
9020, 9051, 9082, 9113, 9134, 9136, 9169, 9176, 9197, 9228, 9234, 9260, 9291,
9322, 9353, 9357, 9358, 9389, 9420, 9421, 9439, 9470, 9501, 9532, 9558, 9589,
9616, 9641, 9644, 9676, 9707, 9739, 9770, 9801, 9832, 9851, 9852, 9883, 9895,
9898, 9929, 9950, 9956, 9961, 9992]
兩次抽到黑妍之間的張數
[4, 31, 31, 31, 9, 6, 31, 32, 5, 7, 26, 31, 31, 31, 4, 31, 9, 23, 31, 31, 26,
12, 12, 31, 30, 31, 31, 31, 31, 28, 31, 30, 23, 32, 17, 31, 13, 7, 5, 31, 17,
31, 26, 31, 31, 31, 31, 1, 2, 31, 5, 29, 3, 5, 31, 13, 7, 30, 32, 31, 16, 21,
31, 1, 6, 16, 16, 14, 31, 11, 13, 28, 31, 18, 14, 31, 12, 20, 31, 9, 31, 2,
31, 20, 25, 6, 15, 31, 31, 16, 31, 32, 32, 31, 32, 19, 11, 1, 2, 28, 31, 31,
31, 31, 31, 17, 31, 31, 31, 4, 7, 7, 6, 31, 21, 12, 30, 14, 6, 5, 3, 25, 31,
31, 31, 11, 31, 16, 31, 31, 31, 31, 23, 32, 1, 31, 31, 31, 31, 3, 10, 11, 32,
29, 5, 32, 17, 32, 31, 4, 31, 30, 31, 31, 15, 27, 1, 4, 23, 18, 31, 25, 31,
13, 29, 31, 31, 31, 27, 25, 31, 31, 32, 6, 31, 2, 13, 31, 31, 15, 17, 31, 9,
16, 31, 1, 32, 31, 31, 22, 31, 31, 1, 17, 31, 31, 31, 1, 20, 31, 31, 4, 31,
15, 31, 17, 25, 24, 23, 9, 21, 22, 31, 31, 13, 22, 31, 31, 31, 31, 26, 31, 2,
31, 31, 31, 25, 23, 6, 31, 4, 8, 8, 31, 19, 31, 32, 1, 31, 4, 1, 26, 32, 11,
31, 22, 31, 31, 31, 31, 31, 32, 14, 31, 31, 31, 31, 11, 13, 31, 19, 20, 11,
31, 3, 14, 31, 19, 26, 31, 6, 23, 25, 31, 5, 4, 31, 19, 31, 31, 13, 13, 31,
19, 27, 31, 15, 24, 13, 23, 31, 31, 11, 31, 3, 16, 31, 20, 31, 1, 31, 31, 10,
31, 31, 10, 3, 2, 31, 31, 11, 11, 31, 31, 31, 31, 1, 27, 31, 31, 31, 12, 24,
31, 31, 12, 17, 9, 19, 31, 28, 31, 31, 31, 31, 31, 12, 28, 28, 31, 11, 5, 31,
11, 31, 22, 30, 31, 31, 25, 31, 31, 31, 31, 17, 32, 31, 26, 24, 10, 5, 31,
31, 5, 1, 3, 31, 2, 31, 31, 1, 7, 31, 17, 31, 1, 11, 29, 31, 31, 31, 32, 23,
31, 22, 31, 4, 14, 32, 9, 16, 11, 1, 31, 31, 27, 23, 31, 20, 31, 18, 25, 6,
31, 11, 13, 3, 17, 9, 31, 31, 31, 31, 21, 2, 33, 7, 21, 31, 6, 26, 31, 31,
31, 4, 1, 31, 31, 1, 18, 31, 31, 31, 26, 31, 27, 25, 3, 32, 31, 32, 31, 31,
31, 19, 1, 31, 12, 3, 31, 21, 6, 5, 31]
當然萬一有保底，大家也不知道MH設定的機制，
所以小弟姑且隨意提供一種。
大家可以隨意改改機制或多跑幾次實驗，
看看能不能逼近MH的玩法XD

滿滿的都是數字眼睛都花了

請...請給我懶人包 好花

快推，不然會被説看不懂，其實我真的看不懂

先給箭頭

第五行的敘述有點問題, 即使是假設沒有保底, 但目前的樣本資料看來, 新妍希卡的機率並不是81取2, 是更高的3.x%

光給數據很難看出結論 至少用個圖表統計

快推，不然人家會知道我們看不懂！！

看不懂 懶人包呢?

我推！

看"兩次抽到黑妍之間的張數" 前提沒保底很明顯跟統計的數據差很多 因此結論是有保底 而且保底的算法是照原PO寫的那樣遞增的機率 結論就是有保底的意思

先推 好猛啊

講!重!點!

依我玩艦娘的經驗統計才2%的東西也會天天有過百場的人崩潰，能沒人超過40次還沒保底那是奇跡

喂 你才是原PO好嗎XDDDDDDDD

看不懂還是推了

看統計數字感覺是預設機率比2/81更低，後面提升更多

推個，跟爐石40包一定有一張傳說差不多意思...

尤其是幾乎沒有人連兩張黑金，但統計下來機率高達3%多其他卡更低的機率都在連發了XD

推, 雖然看不懂不過謝謝結論和跑程式XD

或者說不要侷限於連兩張，連續五張或十張以內黑金的次數都比其他那些1% 2%的卡還低^出現兩張

不管辣，保底只是都市傳說，這都是統計數據的正常呈現zzz我先幫樓下發言

我連發光古希ww

有保底 那就是看個人願不願意花150石買一張卡 或是繼續用以小搏大的心態去抽

http://i.imgur.com/qcgeQX2.jpg看起來抽超雷ww

150石也只是是個大概而以

我最後一次看這個公式已經是一年前寫研究報告的時候了嗚嗚頭好痛啊

我相信機率是遞增 但遞增曲線應該不是線性

花了6000 ,抽到一火一水剩100顆石頭應該有保底只是付出的代價很大之前使魔，古希，省下來沒抽，現在一次吐出來

真的是看自己要不要花那個錢

直接計算版上統計機率來看，3.78%的機率中黑金，不保底的情況下，一直抽到30~39抽中一張的機率是10.46%，29抽以內中的機率是67.29%，40抽以後中的機率是22.25%。跟版上統計一比，答案應該明顯了吧

這次MH真的是賺翻了 下次一定複製這模式

今天他在GOOGLE PLAY的排行榜已經衝到第4了耶 平常都30上下

這模式真的還不錯阿 35抽 大概就很穩了 連無課都能考慮存

這模式每次都要掏個至少3600耶 有很好嗎

我比較喜歡一般那種一次出五張，然後單日加倍的

apk不到3000有190顆，有興趣入坑可考慮

不是剛好3000買190顆嗎

嗯嗯，我也是這樣想的!

這篇正解了

原來mycard價錢也調整了@@，那改用mycard比較便宜一點

看來明年新年中國神有可能比照這模式了？

跟我昨天跑的數值差不多

完全沒抽~反正我光古蒼蠅沒半隻也是撐到現在 不想花3000抽1隻

看推文才知道mycard也降價了，感謝分享

有很多管道可買到9.x折，例如1x3的app，大概2800，190顆

有沒有人連續三張妍希都同一張?已經兩張水了，怕又重復，考慮要不要繼續拼

我也沒有光古蒼蠅 幫哭哭

蒼蠅我們工會反而很多人抽到

3000抽一隻 算了吧

看不懂推

有一堆my card...卻不會用APK...

John 我也是兩張水在掙扎要不要拼

皮朋怎麼常常賣萌

我們家這邊 mycard 有 95 折 ㄎd