BMW M部門副總裁Peter Quintus說，再過幾年，自手排DCT和手排變速箱將被淘汰，
從M車消失，傳統自排最後將會勝出。
前幾天，他在接受澳洲汽車雜誌Drive訪問時作出以上表示。
Quintus預期「手排」M車未來只剩6~7年可活，他也相信DCT自手排M車很快就會改用傳統
自排變速箱。
☆☆BMW M車的DCT自手排和手排變速箱終將被淘汰，本文PTT圖文版☆☆
https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/car/M.1492858659.A.6A8.html
(圖) BMW M4 Competition Sport的DCT自手排排檔照片，444hp，0~96kph加速 4.0秒。
http://i.imgur.com/9tICM7n.jpg
(圖) 1973年BMW 2002手排, 2011年BMW 1M Coupe手排與2016 BMW M2 DCT三台小跑車
https://i.imgtc.com/l0cjwJ3QxY.jpg
M's vice-president of sales and marketing, Peter Quintus, has given both the
conventional manual and the double-clutch transmission just a handful of years
to live.
Having already predicted the end of manual transmissions in the next six or
seven years, Quintus confirmed that he believed we would all soon be making a
return to the torque converter automatic.
◇DCT自手排優勢不再
Quintus說，「重點是DCT自手排還能延續多少年？」
「DCT自手排的兩大優點是重量輕、換檔速度快。」
「但我們也看到現在新型的9速和10速自排變速箱有導入很多新科技，
現在自排變速箱越來越棒，越來越聰明，DCT自手排的換檔優勢大都已經消逝不見了。」
(圖) BMW M2 DCT排檔座照片，
一位前WRC車手曾說他開M2手排的換檔速度會比DCT慢0.1秒
https://i.imgtc.com/dtiA1yh.jpg
(圖) BMW 1M coupe 手排排檔座特寫
https://i.imgtc.com/3FjOOvV.jpg
"It's more a question of how long has the DCT got to go," he said.
"How long will it last?"
"The DCT once had two advantages: it was light and its shift speeds were
higher.
"We are now seeing automatic transmissions with nine and even 10 speeds,
so there's a lot of technology in modern automatics," he said.
"Now, a lot of that shift-time advantage has disappeared as automatics get
better and smarter."
◇手排的強度耐用度已達先天極限
至於手排的問題則是在於強度無法承受新世代引擎的超大扭力。
Quintus說手排耐用度的極限大約在450匹 以及61.2公斤米左右，再往上就會有耐用度
的疑慮。
Drive雜誌記者問說，那怎麼不考慮美國那些很強壯，專門給V8大排氣量巨獸的手排變速
箱？
Quintus說美國那些強壯手排變速箱重量很重，而且換檔品質不佳到很可怕的地步。
Quintus說，他甚至不確定下一代M3/M4是否還會有手排款。
(圖) 1984 BMW E24 M635CSi 是史上第二款M車，3.5L直六自然進氣 286bhp
標配5速手排，0~100kph加速6.4秒
https://i.imgtc.com/3x2QifC.jpg
(圖) E39 M5 (1999~2003)，4.9L V8 400PS，
唯一標配6速手排，0~96kph 4.8秒
https://i.imgtc.com/32O4o4QGH7.jpg
(圖) E39 M5車尾
https://i.imgtc.com/f3bmuCG.jpg
(圖) E46 M3車側 338hp，手排加速5.1秒 (2000~2006)
https://i.imgtc.com/3bKUJ9VxbZ.jpg
it's a case of being able to make a manual gearbox strong enough for the
super-torquey new generation of engines. He said about 450 horsepower (335kW)
and 600Nm was more or less the limit of manual-gearbox durability.
Beyond that, he said, durability couldn't be guaranteed.
So why not just shop somewhere like the USA for a manual transmission that
can cope with the output of big, burly V8 engines?
"We looked at US gearboxes. We found they were heavy and the shift quality
was awful," he said.
"I'm not even sure the next generation of M3 and M4 models from BMW will
have the option of a manual gearbox.
==心得==
傳統自排的性能日益強大，DCT自手排和傳統手排的M車會逐漸滅絕，
BMW未來將全部改用傳統自排變速箱，想買DCT M車還剩下幾年時間。
下一代新M5已經改用ZF 8速自排變速箱，不再使用DCT自手排了。
下一代M3/M4如果馬力和扭力太大的話，搞不好也會改成8速自排，希望不會那麼快發生
延伸閱讀
[情報] 下一代BMW M5原廠規格曝光 4.4T V8 600匹 四驅 8速自排變速箱 (圖)
https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/car/M.1489138558.A.8AF.html
出處
[Drive] BMW M-Division: Dual-clutch gearbox dead on water
And the days looked numbered for manual transmission too.
https://is.gd/PuijpL