※ [本文轉錄自 Darvish 看板 #1Ik017LI ]
作者: anijen (Yu#11/Hammy#32) 看板: Darvish
標題: [外電] 達比修有 vs 田中將大
時間: Mon Dec 23 17:20:03 2013
http://ppt.cc/zFYv
Comparing Japanese Phenom Masahiro Tanaka to Yu Darvish
Lost in the madness of whether Masahiro Tanaka will actually take the mound
for a Major League Baseball team in 2014 is the need to dissect what kind of
pitcher he is.
Via The Japan Times, MLB reportedly reached a basic agreement on a new
posting system with the Nippon Professional Baseball League (NPB), where
Tanaka has pitched the last seven years with the Rakuten Golden Eagles.
Rakuten team president Yozo Tachibana reportedly wants Tanaka to remain in
Japan and may not post him until 2014, though there hasn't been any official
word (again via the Times).
We have all heard the legends surrounding the 25-year-old: Tanaka went 24-0
with Rakuten during the 2013 regular season, going unbeaten in 30 starts from
August 2012 to November 2013.
Tanaka would have the unenviable task of being the first major Japanese
pitcher to come from Japan since Yu Darvish two years ago. Fairly or
unfairly, comparisons between the two will last for as long as the two pitch
in the same league. If they face off in the same game, imagine what the media
coverage will be like.
Until we get to that moment, if we ever do, now seems like a good time to
examine the similarities and differences between Tanaka and Darvish,
specifically examining how the pre-MLB scouting reports compare.
不管田中2014年到底會不會在大聯盟投球(樂天老闆說他還沒答應)
我們都知道這25歲投手的傳奇:2013年球季-24勝0敗。
達比修跟田中在日本都是在同一個聯盟投球，看看進入大聯盟前的球探報告吧。
Darvish, obviously, has more than lived up to the hype.
達比修-很明顯的，比當初評價的還優。
The Texas ace finished in the top 10 of AL Cy Young voting in his first two
seasons, including a second-place finish in 2013. He led the league with 277
strikeouts, 6.2 hits allowed per nine innings and 11.9 strikeouts per nine
innings last season.
進入大聯盟前2季在美聯CY票選都有進前10名，今年是第2，
去年球季領先美聯的277K,每9局6.2安打數及11.9的K/9。
That is a lofty bar for Tanaka to reach, which probably isn't fair to him. He
works and is built differently, so he will have to get hitters out in
different ways.
拿田中來比是有點不公平，因為他們解決打者的方式不同。
Let's examine Tanaka and Darvish as both were/are preparing to enter MLB for
the first time, using old scouting reports and analysis.
看看他們的進大聯盟前的球探報告吧
Physical Comparison 體格比較
When evaluating pitchers, particularly right-handers, you are looking for
height and weight right away. You don't want a guy to be too tall (think 6'6"
or above) because those players tend to have longer limbs that make it
difficult to repeat mechanics and throw consistent, quality strikes.
評估一位投手，尤其是右投，你馬上會看身高及體重。
你不會想要他太高(6呎6吋)，四肢長在投球重複的動作下，會影響一致性。
At the same time, you don't want a pitcher who is too small (around 5'11" or
6'0") because they can be frail and aren't able to get enough plane on the
fastball.
但你也不會想要他太矮(5呎5吋或6呎0吋)
Some players can buck the height trend, in either direction. Doug Fister is
6'8" and has carved out a very good career for himself as a pitcher whose
strength is a lot of sink on the fastball and throwing strikes. Tim Lincecum
won two Cy Young Awards despite not having an ideal frame at 5'11", though he
did fall apart rather quickly.
也有很高投得很好的Doug Fister(6呎8吋)，不高的Tim Lincecum(5呎11吋)也拿了2次CY。
Darvish has the look of a guy who is going to be a horse at the top of a
rotation. He's listed at 6'5" and 225 pounds. Looking at the length of his
arms and legs, you can see what made scouts drool over him coming out of NPB.
Tanaka is no slouch in the height/weight department. He's listed at a very
solid 6'2" and 205 pounds, which is roughly on par with the measurements for
Zack Greinke.
達比修看起來就像是前段先發的工作馬，6呎5吋 220磅，還有他手腳的長度，
這也難怪一堆大聯盟球探，流口水也要把他跩離NPB。
田中將大6呎2吋 200磅，跟Zack Greinke差不多。
Yu Darvish Scouting Report 達比修-球探報告
Here is where you will find the greatest separation between Darvish and
Tanaka. Any comparisons between these two players run dry when you get to the
sheer volume of pitches Darvish throws and quality of the pitches.
We know, based on two years of evidence in MLB, that Darvish is not just a
No. 1 starter. Clayton Kershaw is arguably the best pitcher in baseball, but
not even he is working with the kind of stuff Texas' ace has.
依據這2年的表現，達比修不僅只是1號投手，當然Clayton Kershaw 目前是地球上最好的
投手，也不代表他有跟達比修一樣的stuff。
This didn't come out of nowhere. One reason the Rangers bid a record-breaking
$51.7 million just to negotiate with Darvish, even after Daisuke Matsuzaka
flamed out in Boston, is they understood what he could be.
即使松坂大輔在紅襪的表現，也不影響遊騎兵花了51.7M的入札表示對他的信心。
In January 2012, prior to Darvish's debut season in Texas, Jim Callis of
Baseball America answered a reader question about putting an overall grade on
Darvish's future projection.
2012年的時候，Baseball America 的Jim Callis回答讀者有關達比修未來的預測:
Darvish is a frontline starter who has a proven track record in the Japanese
major leagues. I'd give him a 70/Low (and rank him as baseball's fourth-best
prospect behind Trout, Moore and Harper), and I also could see him as a
75/Medium.
達比修將會是前段先發輪值，我給他最低是70級(當年僅次於Trout, Moore and Harper)，
預估可達75級。
For those who don't know, baseball players and tools are scouted using a
20-80 grading scale; 50 is average, 60 is plus, 40 is below average, etc.
Anything or anyone at a 70 is the rarest of rare, while an 80 is Mike Trout's
all-around game, Andrelton Simmons' arm and glove or Miguel Cabrera's hit
tool.
PS.球探用語:通常以20-80為範圍，50是平均，60是不錯，40略低於平均，
任何人任何事在70已是少見的少見，80大概就是Mike Trout全部=Andrelton Simmons的手臂
+手套=Miguel Cabrera的打擊。
Putting a 70 on Darvish before he ever threw an MLB pitch speaks volumes
about how highly regarded he was around the game.
在達比修一球未投就給他評70說明了一切。
Using the scouting report to evaluate Darvish's stuff, Baseball America
(subscription required) listed six pitches (four-seam and two-seam fastball,
slider, curveball, splitter, changeup), all of which graded out as at least
plus (60 grade).
達比修的stuff，6顆球種(four-seam and two-seam fastball, slider, curveball,
splitter, changeup)，至少都評為60起。
He also earned high marks for athleticism, which "allows him to consistently
repeat his delivery and command his pitches."
Do you know how rare it is for a pitcher to have one 60-grade pitch, let
alone six? I guarantee that you can search scouting reports for days and not
find another pitcher who grades out like Darvish does.
知道有一顆球種被評為60有多少見? 6顆?
保證你去找球探報告，還不可能找到跟達比修一樣的。
In addition to the overall quality of his stuff prior to pitching for the
Rangers, Darvish has progressed and gotten better.
達比修還更進化
Yu Darvish Pitch Velocity, 2012-13 /達比修2012-2013球種均速
Season 4縫線速球 2縫線速球 卡特球 指叉 滑球 曲球
2012 92.6 92.7 89.7 87.2 81.6 70.9
2013 94.1 95.2 91.0 85.6 82.7 69.9
He may not be the best pitcher in baseball—at least not yet—but Darvish
might have the best scouting report in the sport.
他可能不是地球上最棒的投手-起碼目前還不是，但可能擁有最棒的球探報告。
Masahiro Tanaka Scouting Report 田中將大球探報告
Unlike Darvish, who has two years of MLB experience, the books haven't been
written on Tanaka or his stuff yet. There are reports breaking down what the
25-year-old has to offer, but they aren't as comprehensive or in-depth as
Darvish's. There will likely be more after he signs with an MLB team,
whenever that happens.
跟已經有2年大聯盟投球經驗的達比修不同，他的大聯盟經歷目前還是空白，
對他的了解可能還是要等他加入大聯盟球隊之後才能更清楚。
The most accessible scouting report available for Tanaka is on YouTube,
showing highlights from his time in the World Baseball Classic. However, that
can be a bit misleading, as most short-form videos will only show a player at
his absolute best.
目前對於田中的球探報告-大部分在YOUTUBE或WBC比賽的精華片段，
不過球員短期比賽的精華表現不是很準。
But we can still glean information from the video. Specifically, look at the
splitter Tanaka throws at the 34-second mark. It may not be quite at Koji
Uehara's level, but that's about as close as you can get.
根據youtube影片，仍然可以看出一些端睨，看看影片34秒這顆指叉球，
有可能跟上原的等級有得拚。
One big concern I have about Tanaka is his delivery. There is nothing
inherently wrong with the arm action or mechanics to make me think arm
problems are coming, but look how wide his step to the plate is.
我對田中最大的疑點是他投球的出手，不是說他的他的手臂動作或重複什麼的
讓我覺得他手臂有問題，而是他投球前跨的那一大步。
Sometimes, having a long stride to the plate can serve a pitcher well,
because the ball comes out of the hand closer to the plate and gives hitters
less time to react.
有時候跨大步一點沒什麼問題，畢竟球飛去打者距離更近，打者反應時間變短。
In this case, however, Tanaka's stride is so pronounced that it actually
takes plane off his fastball and makes it easier for hitters to elevate it.
This wouldn't be a problem if he had movement on the pitch, but it's a fairly
straight offering.
然而，田中的跨步太明顯了，讓打者很容易去評估他的速球，但如果他的速球位移
很大的話那也沒問題，但看起來是相當的平。
Darvish also has a long stride to the plate, but he gets such great natural
movement on the fastball and is three inches taller than Tanaka, so he is
able to get away with it more often.
達比修的跨步也是很大，但他的速球有非常自然的位移，而且他身高又比田中高
三吋，所以相較容易解決。
Baseball America's Ben Badler offered up a brief scouting report on Tanaka in
an August piece about the new posting system.
球探網站Baseball America的Ben Badler提供一份8月份調查田中的報告。
At 6-foot-2, 205 pounds, Tanaka throws a low-90s fastball that can touch 96
mph. Even though Tanaka can reach the mid-90s, his fastball is the pitch that
gives some scouts pause because it comes in on a flat plane, making it more
hittable than the velocity might suggest. Tanaka has two secondary pitches that
have earned grades of 60 or better on the 20-80 scouting scale, including a 70
splitter with late downward action to keep hitters off his fastball. His low-
to mid-80s slider is another plus weapon, while he’ll mix in a curveball as
well.
6呎2吋. 205磅，田中速球均速90初，最快可達96mph，即使這樣，還是讓很多球探遲疑，
的地方，因為速球看起來相當的平，這樣很容易被打出去，即使有球速護體。
擁有2種第二顆球種，級距分給60 (級距20~80之間)，評為70的是指叉，可讓打者揮空，
球速80初的滑球也是一個武器，另外他也會曲球。
A profile like that gives Tanaka a legitimate No. 2 starter ceiling.
However, therein lies another problem: How many players actually reach their
ceiling?
That's not to say he can't do it, but if the biggest questions scouts have
are about the fastball, even though the velocity is strong, it can be harder
to have success in the big leagues. Tanaka might have to start pitching
backward (using off-speed stuff early in counts) to keep hitters off the
heater.
這樣的報告讓田中的天花板，起碼可以達到2號先發的地位。
然而，有問題是:誰都能達到自己的天花板嗎?
不是說他不行，球探們對他懷有最大疑問是速球，即使有球速，但是在大聯盟
是不太能吃得開的，田中似乎也有比賽一開始投變化球搶好球數的傾向。
Some of the hype has gotten overblown. George King of the New York Post
quoted one MLB scout as saying that Tanaka is better than Darvish.
He is better than Darvish because he is a strike thrower. Overall, Darvish’s
stuff might be a little bit better, but this guy knows how to pitch. He is like
Kuroda, he has a lot of guts. He throws four pitches but when it gets to
[stone]-cutting time, it’s fastball and splitter.
但也有球探報告說的超神，New York Post的George King就說他覺得田中比達比修好。
他比達比修好，因為他會丟好球，整體來說，達比修的stuff比較好，但田中知道怎麼投球
他就像黑田，他有4球種，關鍵時刻會丟4縫線跟指叉。
I'd like to get a better gauge of what this particular scout sees, because
there's nothing about Tanaka that screams he's going to be better than
Darvish. Doug Fister throws as many strikes as anyone, but that doesn't make
him better than Darvish.
我不太去管這位特別球探怎麼看的，不過田中是絕不可能比達比修好的，
Doug Fister也是一個比誰都還會丟好球的人，但不代表他就贏達比修。
Even though it sounds like I'm picking him apart, I still think Tanaka is the
best starter available on the free-agent market this winter. (This assumes
Rakuten will post him this year.) He has the potential to be very good—but
even at his best, he won't be Darvish.
看起來好像我有點挑剔田中，沒有我仍然覺得他是今年FA市場中最棒的投手
(如果樂天願意讓他入札的話)，他是有潛力可能成為一個很好的投手，但即使
已經達到他的最佳狀態，他不可能是達比修。
Despite the inevitable comparisons that will come out if Masahiro Tanaka gets
posted and signs with an MLB team, it's not fair to think the young
right-hander will come to the big leagues and be exactly like Yu Darvish.
儘管兩人難免會被比較，但預設他未來在大聯盟表現用達比修標準比較，是不公平的。
Tanaka seems likely to end up as a high-end No. 3 starter or a low-tier No.
2. That still puts him among the top 40 starting pitchers in the game, which
isn't too shabby in this pitching-rich era.
田中看來應該會是3號投手(或可能是2號)，仍在大聯盟前40大投手之列。
Darvish is different from anyone we have seen come from Japan. He had the
body, stuff and performance to suggest a sure-fire No. 1 starter, which is
exactly what has happened.
達比修跟其他人不一樣，他擁有的身材、stuff、表現無疑是1號先發。
Regardless of the differences between Tanaka and Darvish, some team is going
to get a really good, young starting pitcher this winter, if only we could
get Rakuten to ensure he's available to MLB clubs.
如果田中今年冬天可以入札的話，某隊將會擁有一位年輕且很棒的投手。
Note: All stats courtesy of Baseball Reference unless otherwise noted.