來源:
CNBC
內容:
標題
The race to succeed Germany’s Angela Merkel just got more exciting
接替德國總理安格拉‧默克爾(Angela Merkel)的競選變得更加激動人心
The race has just become even more complicated, with two rivals contesting
the conservative ticket.
競選變得更加復雜，兩個競爭對手正在爭奪保守派候選人的席位
CDU lawmakers will discuss who that should be on Tuesday and hope to come to
a decision this week. But it will be a difficult choice between their party
leader and someone as popular as Soeder.
基督教民主聯盟的立法者們將在週二討論誰將擔任總統，並希望在本週做出決定。
但是，在他們的黨派領袖和像索德這樣受歡迎的人之間，將是一個艱難的選擇。
The CDU/CSU are polling about 27%, but are closely followed by the Green
party, which currently has about 21% of the public support and has been going
up in recent surveys.
基督教民主聯盟/基督教社會聯盟的支持率約為27% ，但緊隨其後的是綠黨，
目前綠黨擁有約21% 的公眾支持率，而且在最近的調查中支持率一直在上升。
LONDON — It was never going to be easy to find a successor to Angela Merkel,
German chancellor for the last 16 years. But the race has just become even
more complicated, with two rivals contesting the conservative ticket.
倫敦ー要找到一位接替過去16年德國總理安格拉‧默克爾(Angela Merkel)的繼任者，從
來都不是件容易的事。但是競選變得更加復雜，兩個競爭對手正在爭奪保守黨的席位。
The obvious conservative candidate in the upcoming German election would be
Armin Laschet, head of the North Rhine-Westphalia state. He was elected
leader of Merkel’s CDU party in January and claims he wants to modernize
Germany.
在即將到來的德國大選中，明顯的保守派候選人將會是德意志北萊茵-威斯特法倫的領袖
Armin Laschet。他在一月份被選為默克爾的基民盟黨的領導人，並聲稱他想要使德國現
代化。
That was until Markus Soeder, from the Bavarian sister party, the CSU, threw
his hat in the ring. Soeder is arguably the most popular man in German
politics.
直到來自巴伐利亞姊妹黨基督教社會聯盟的馬庫斯 · 索德加入競選。索德爾可以說是德
國政壇最受歡迎的人物。
“It has always been clear that the race to Angela Merkel’s succession will
be long and will not follow a straight line. It might not be a blockbuster
movie but rather a binge-viewing-worthy political series,” Carsten Brzeski,
chief economist at ING Germany, said in a note on Tuesday.
“安格拉‧默克爾(Angela Merkel)接班人的競爭將會很漫長，而且不會走直線，這一點
一直是明確的。荷蘭國際集團(ING Germany)首席經濟學家卡斯滕‧布爾澤斯基(Carsten
Brzeski)在週二的一份報告中表示: “這部電影可能不是一部轟動一時的電影，而是一部
值得一看的政治連續劇。”。
Party leader or Mr Popularity 黨的領導人或者人氣先生
When it comes to federal elections, the CDU and CSU act together — and so
will only field one candidate.
在聯邦選舉中，基督教民主聯盟和基督教社會聯盟共同行動，因此只會推出一名候選人。
CDU lawmakers will discuss who that should be on Tuesday and hope to come to
a decision this week. But it will be a difficult choice between their party
leader and someone as popular as Soeder.
基督教民主聯盟的立法者們將在週二討論誰將擔任總統，並希望在本週做出決定。但是，
在他們的黨派領袖和像索德這樣受歡迎的人之間，將是一個艱難的選擇。
Elisabeth Motschmann, a lawmaker for the CDU, told CNBC’s Squawk Box Europe
on Tuesday that she supports Soeder.
基督教民主聯盟的立法者伊麗莎白 · 莫茨曼週二告訴 CNBC 的 Squawk Box 歐洲頻道，
她支持索德。
“For this very hard job, I think that Markus Soeder will do his best and is
able to win,” she said. “I don’t think that (Laschet) would be hard enough
and he can’t decide like Soeder.”
她說: “對於這項艱巨的工作，我認為馬庫斯 · 索德爾將會盡最大努力贏得比賽。”。
“我不認為(拉謝特)會很難，他不能像索德那樣做出決定。”
Jens Suedekum, professor at Dusseldorf Institute for Competition Economics,
told CNBC via email that, “what characterizes Soeder is his unique degree of
flexibility, you may call it opportunism, when it comes to political
principles.”
杜塞爾多夫競爭經濟研究所(Dusseldorf Institute for Competition Economics)教授延
斯 · 蘇德庫姆(Jens Suedekum)通過電子郵件告訴 CNBC，“蘇德的特點是他獨特的靈活
度，在涉及政治原則時，你可以稱之為機會主義。”
Germany’s conservative party has seen its popularity fall since January,
when the coronavirus pandemic began to worsen in the country.
自今年1月冠狀病毒開始在德國蔓延以來，德國保守黨的支持率一直在下降。
It is finally set to harmonize lockdown rules in an effort to contain a third
wave of cases. This comes after the population expressed frustration at how
the rules have differed from region to region ever since the initial outbreak
of the Covid-19.
為了遏制第三波案件，最終將協調禁閉規則。在這之前，人們對於自從2019冠狀病毒疾病
疫情爆發以來各個地區規則的不同表示失望。
Vaccination boost 疫苗接種
But things could be about to look up for the conservatives.
但保守派的形勢可能會好轉。
“Once the CDU/CSU’s official election campaign starts in full force and
vaccinations ramp up, things will look better for them,” Naz Masraff,
director at consultancy firm Eurasia Group, said in a note on Tuesday.
咨詢公司歐亞集團(Eurasia Group)董事納茲‧馬斯拉夫(Naz Masraff)週二在一份報告中
表示: “一旦基督教民主聯盟/基督教社會聯盟(CDU/CSU)的正式競選活動開始全面展開，
疫苗接種量也開始增加，情況對他們來說就會好轉。”。
However, she stressed that Laschet would likely have a more difficult time
consolidating the CDU/CSU’s voter base and winning back centrist voters from
the Green party.
不過，她強調，拉謝特很可能在鞏固基民盟/基社聯的選民基礎和從綠黨贏回中間派選民
方面遇到更多困難。
Laschet’s candidacy would benefit the Greens and the Social Democrats. It
would also increase the chances of a Green chancellor after September’s
elections. 拉謝特的候選人資格將有利於綠黨和社會民主黨。這也將增加九月份選舉後
綠黨總理的機會
“He will also have to work hard to change his image as a weak and
equivocating leader who hasn’t taken as strong a line on the pandemic, or on
corruption in the party’s ranks, as many Germans expected,” Masraff added.
馬斯拉夫補充說，“他還必須努力改變自己的形象，即作為一個軟弱、模棱兩可的領導人
，在這場流行病或黨內腐敗問題上沒有像許多德國人預期的那樣採取強硬路線。”。
Whoever the CDU chooses to be its running candidate could ultimately have an
impact on what kind of coalition will emerge in September.
無論基民盟選擇誰作為其競選候選人，最終都可能對9月份將出現的聯合政府產生影響。
“Laschet’s candidacy would benefit the Greens and the Social Democrats. It
would also increase the chances of a Green chancellor after September’s
elections,” Masraff said.
“拉謝特的候選資格將有利於綠黨和社會民主黨。這也將增加9月大選後綠黨總理產生的
機會。”。
心得:
索德高人氣似乎更有機會成為接班人