Engineers, not racers, are the true drivers of success in motor sport
原文出處：
https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/10/17/engineers-not-racers-are-the-true-drivers-of-success-in-motor-sport
摘要：
經濟學人引用Andrew Bell的數學模型分析F1,結論認為現代F1冠軍靠車比較多。
最優秀的F1車手不是舒馬赫，也不是小黑，而是Juan Manuel Fangio。
蠻有趣的文章。
“Ialways thought records were there to be broken,” Michael Schumacher, a
star Formula 1 (f1) driver, said in 2013. At the time, his record of 91
career f1 victories looked safe: the closest active racer had just 32. Yet on
October 11th Lewis Hamilton of Britain equalled the mark. Mr Hamilton is also
on pace to tie Mr Schumacher’s record of seven f1 championships later this
year.
Mr Hamilton’s ascent has ignited debate over whether he is f1’s best driver
ever. Comparing athletes across eras is always hard—especially in motor
sports, where a racer depends on his car. Moreover, f1 has regularly changed
its scoring system and its number of races, drivers and teams.
However, statistical analysis can address many of these nuances. We have
built a mathematical model, based on a study by Andrew Bell of the University
of Sheffield, to measure the impact of all 745 drivers in f1 history. It
finds that Mr Hamilton’s best years fall just short of those of the all-time
greats—but so do Mr Schumacher’s.
The model first converts orders of finish into points, using the 1991-2002
system of ten points for a win and six for second place. It adjusts these
scores for structural effects, such as the number and past performances of
other drivers in the race. Then, it splits credit between drivers and their
vehicles. (Today, f1 has ten teams, each using two drivers and one type of
car.)
Disentangling these factors is tricky. Mr Schumacher spent most of his peak
at Ferrari, as Mr Hamilton has at Mercedes, leaving scant data on their work
in other cars.
However, their teammates varied. And drivers who raced alongside Mr Hamilton
or Mr Schumacher tended to fare far better in those stints than they did
elsewhere. If Ferrari’s and Mercedes’ engineers boosted lesser racers this
much, they probably aided their stars to a similar degree. Because most
drivers switch teams a few times, this method can be applied throughout
history.
Between the two racers with 91 wins, the model prefers Mr Schumacher. He won
1.9 more points per race than an average driver would have done in the same
events and cars, edging out Mr Hamilton’s mark of 1.8. Limited to their five
best consecutive years, the gap widens, to 2.7 points per race for Mr
Schumacher and 2.0 for Mr Hamilton.
This difference stems mostly from the impact of their cars. Both stars raced
in the finest vehicles of their day. But 20 years ago, cars from Williams and
McLaren were nearly as strong as Ferrari’s. In contrast, Mercedes now towers
over its rivals, enabling Mr Hamilton and Valtteri Bottas, his teammate, to
coast past lesser cars. Before joining Mercedes, Mr Bottas had never won a f1
race. He now has nine victories.
Yet on a per-race basis, the greats of yesteryear beat both modern stars.
Three of the model’s top four drivers stopped racing by 1973; the leader,
the Argentine Juan Manuel Fangio, won five titles in the 1950s.
These pioneers had short careers. Fangio started just 51 races, to Mr
Schumacher’s 306. However, the model is impressed by them, because the
impact of cars relative to drivers has grown over time. On average, it
assigns drivers in the 1950s 58% of their teams’ points; today, that share
is 19%. Fangio, who was a mechanic by training and won titles using cars from
four different firms, was known as “the master”. The masters of modern f1
are engineers who sit behind laptops, not steering wheels.