新聞來源：認證過Bumbler的經濟學人
http://goo.gl/I96J4Y
A plan to send old people to the countryside
一個將老人送到鄉下的計畫
IN SUGAMO, a district of Tokyo, the river of human traffic turns greyer and
slower as it files past shops selling thermal underwear and orthopaedic
socks. Pavements have been modified to accommodate wheelchairs. Hand-written
signs replace neon. The main street hosts ten chemists, two funeral arrangers
and a karaoke bar where the song list stops in the 1970s.
在東京巢鴨這個地方，人流變得更「灰」更「慢」，不僅馬路被改造成更適合輪椅，卡拉
OK店的歌單也還停在1970年代。
By 2060 Japan’s population is projected to fall from 127m to about 87m, of
which almost 40% will be 65 or older (see chart). Last year the government
created a new cabinet position for “overcoming population decline and
revitalising local economies”. It is now mulling a proposal aimed at
repopulating rural areas and cutting the cost of looking after grandma:
persuading old people in the capital to move to the countryside.
2060年的日本人口預計從1億2700萬人下降到8700萬人，其中65歲以上的老人將超過40%。
去年日本政府內閣決議新目標──「克服人口下降，以及振興地方經濟」，正在考慮
農村再造的提案，以說服老人從首都遷往農村。
Over the next decade, the population of over-75s in greater Tokyo will grow
by 1.75m, says the Japan Policy Council, a think-tank. Looking after 5.7m
very old people will overwhelm already stretched services, it warns; well
over 100,000 could be left without beds in care homes. Encouraging them to
leave would pep up rural economies, suggests Yoshihide Suga, the chief
cabinet secretary. The idea has raised eyebrows. Shigeru Ishiba, the minister
in charge of regional revitalisation, had to deny this month that the
government was bringing back ubasute, the mythical ancient custom of dumping
the elderly on mountains to die. “Nobody is talking about forcing people to
move,” he insisted.
在下個十年裡，東京都李超過75歲的老人會增加175萬人。一位日本政策委員會的智庫
說到：「照顧這其中570萬的老人將使政府捉襟見軸，」他警告。
「有超過10萬的人將不用待在老人照料院裡，內閣官房長官菅義偉鼓勵這些人離開，或許
會刺激鄉下經濟。」
這個想法迫在眉睫。負責振興區域的大臣石破茂則必須否認這是政府強迫性的
「うばすて（姥捨て）」一個把老人丟到山中讓他死去的傳說。
「沒有人會強迫他們。」他強調
Yet mass migration of the elderly is not as implausible as it sounds, says
Hideki Koizumi of the University of Tokyo. Population decline threatens
hundreds of Japanese villages with extinction. Meanwhile, a small army of
care workers would be needed to look after all the old people expected to
live in Tokyo. If these extra workers were to move in from the countryside,
the capital would get even more crowded and rural decline would accelerate.
The solution: build rest homes in the boondocks and fill them with aged
urbanites.
然而，大規模的遷移老人或許沒那麼令人難以置信。東京大學都市工學專攻教授小泉秀樹
表示，人口下降威脅到數百個村落可能消失，同時，負責照顧老人的人將遷往東京，如果
這些人士來自鄉村的話，這會使首都東京更加擁擠，鄉下的人口流失將更為迅速。
而解決方法就是：在偏僻的鄉下建立老人院，並將有年紀的都市老人遷往這裡。
The think-tank has identified 41 regional areas that could take the pressure
off Tokyo. Several are considering the proposal. Kitakyushu city, in the
south-west, says it has just one concern: the government has yet to present
anything like a concrete plan for how to pay for it all. The central
government will need to offer heavy subsidies for housing, nursing and so on,
say experts, and it can ill afford to. Such details are still being worked
out, admits Keisuke Takayama, a spokesman for the council.
智庫已經決定了可以減輕東京人口壓力的41個地區，數個仍在考慮的地方。在西南的
北九州市則提出一個問題：政府對於如何執行還沒有提出任何實際的計畫方法，中央政府
需要提供大量的住房補貼、護理照顧，「政府可能承受不起」一位專家說到。
「許多的細節仍在商討中」議會發言人高山圭佑說。
There is another problem: old people may not want to move. Most prefer to
live in places they know, surrounded by their families, says Mr Koizumi.
「這裡還指出另外一個問題：老人不一定想要搬離，他們比較喜歡他們熟識的環境，以及
待在家人的旁邊。」小泉秀樹說
Florian Coulmas, a German scholar, notes that Tokyo is at the vanguard of
demographic change. Its wealth and excellent health care have created a “
catastrophic success”: the world’s longest life expectancy. Other countries
will one day face similar challenges (some already are), and perhaps consider
equally desperate solutions.
Florian Coulmas，一位德國的學者指出東京將是人口變化的先鋒，他的財富和健康照顧
已經漸漸的形成一種「災難式的成功」，使他變成世界上壽命最長的城市。
其他的城市將來可能也會面臨類似的挑戰（有些已經是了），或許他們也會考慮同樣讓人
覺得絕望的解決方法。
奇怪的是這個新聞不知道為什麼台灣媒體沒在關注
我的建議是把未來會倒掉的大專院校改成養老院
畢竟一方面不必在興建新的建築，一方面校園環境其實也滿適合養老的