1.媒體來源:
New York Times
2.完整新聞標題:
North Korea’s Nuclear Strength, Encapsulated in an Online Ad for Lithium
3.完整新聞內文:
North Korea’s Nuclear Strength, Encapsulated in an Online Ad for Lithium
By DAVID E. SANGER and WILLIAM J. BROADAPRIL 3, 2017
WASHINGTON — The online ad reads like something only a metallurgist could
love: an offer to sell 22 pounds of highly pure lithium 6 every month, set
for delivery from the port of Dandong, China.
華盛頓——這則網路廣告似乎只有冶金學家會感興趣：每月出售22磅（約合10公斤）高純
度鋰6，從中國丹東港發貨。
But it caught the attention of intelligence agencies around the world for a
simple reason: Lithium 6 offers a fast way to turn an ordinary atom bomb into
a hydrogen bomb, magnifying its destructive power by up to 1,000 times. The
seller listed in the ad — who even provided his cellphone number — was
identified in a recent United Nations report as the third secretary in the
North Korean Embassy in Beijing.
但它引起了全球情報機構的注意，原因很簡單：鋰6能迅速讓普通的原子彈變成氫彈，將
其破壞力最高放大1000倍。在最近的一份聯合國報告中，廣告中標明的賣方——此人甚至
提供了自己的手機號碼——身份被確認為朝鮮駐北京大使館三等秘書。
When President Trump meets with President Xi Jinping in Florida this week,
administration officials say, his top agenda item will be pressing China to
sign on to the most powerful set of economic sanctions ever imposed on North
Korea over its nuclear weapons and ballistic missile programs. Mr. Trump has
repeatedly vowed to stop the North’s nuclear efforts, telling The Financial
Times in an interview published on Sunday: “If China is not going to solve
North Korea, we will. That is all that I am telling you.”
聯邦政府官員稱，本週在佛羅里達州會見中國國家主席習近平時，川普總統的首要議程將
是向中國施壓，讓其同意一系列針對朝鮮的經濟制裁措施。它們將是朝鮮因核武器和彈道
導彈計劃而受到的最嚴厲制裁。川普多次發誓要阻止朝鮮的核計劃。在《金融時報》
(The Financial Times)週日刊登的採訪中，川普說：「如果中國不解決朝鮮問題，我們
解決。我只能告訴你這麼多。」
But experts say the offer to sell excess lithium is evidence that North Korea
has produced so much of the precious material that it is too late to prevent
the nation from becoming an advanced nuclear power.
但專家稱，那則銷售多餘的鋰的廣告證明，朝鮮已經大量生產了這種珍貴原料，現在阻止
該國成為先進的核國家為時已晚。
If that is the case, Mr. Trump may find little success in borrowing from the
playbook of the four presidents before him, who fruitlessly tried, with
differing mixes of negotiations, sanctions, sabotage and threats of
unilateral strikes, to force the North to give up its program. And it remains
unclear exactly what the president meant when he said he would “solve” the
problem of North Korea.
如果是這樣的話，川普借鑒四位前任的策略也許會效果欠佳。為了逼朝鮮放棄核計劃，川
普的前任們對談判、制裁、故意破壞和威脅進行單邊打擊進行了不同的組合，但未果。尚
不清楚川普說他會「解決」朝鮮問題究竟是什麼意思。
While experts doubt the declaration last year by Kim Jong-un, the North’s
leader, that the country had tested a hydrogen bomb, intelligence estimates
provided to Mr. Trump in recent weeks say the mercurial young ruler is
working on it. The acceleration of Mr. Kim’s atomic and missile programs —
the North launched four ballistic missiles in a test last month — is meant
to prove that the country is, and will remain, a nuclear power to be reckoned
with.
儘管專家對朝鮮領導人金正恩(Kim Jong-un)去年宣稱朝鮮已進行氫彈試驗的說法持懷疑
態度，但最近幾週提供給川普的情報評估報告認為，這位反覆無常的年輕統治者正致力於
氫彈研發。金正恩的原子彈和導彈計劃加速——朝鮮在上月的一次試驗中發射了四枚彈道
導彈——是為了證明朝鮮現在是、並且將來依然是一個不容小覷的核國家。
For Mr. Trump, that reckoning is coming even as his strategy to halt the North
’s program remains incomplete and largely unexplained, and as some experts
say the very idea of stopping Pyongyang’s efforts is doomed to failure. Mr.
Trump’s budget is expected to include more money for antimissile defenses,
and officials say he is continuing a cyber- and electronic-warfare effort to
sabotage North Korea’s missile launches.
對川普來說，在朝鮮要求受到重視的同時，他在阻止朝鮮核計劃上的策略卻仍是不完整的
，且基本上沒有給出解釋，還有一些專家稱阻止平壤核計劃這個想法註定會失敗。川普的
預算應該會增加對反導彈防禦系統的投入，且官員稱他正在繼續進行一項網路和電子戰行
動，以破壞朝鮮的導彈發射。
The president’s insistence that he will solve the North Korea problem makes
it hard to imagine a shift toward acceptance of its arsenal. But in private,
even some of his closest aides have begun to question whether the goal of “
complete, verifiable, irreversible disarmament” — the policy of the Obama
and Bush administrations — is feasible anymore.
川普堅稱自己會解決朝鮮問題，讓外界難以想像他會轉而接受朝鮮核武庫的存在。但私下
裡，就連他最親密的一些助手都已經開始懷疑「完全、可核查和不可逆轉地拆除」這個目
標——歐巴馬和布希政府的政策——是否可行。
“We need to change the fundamental objective of our policy, because North
Korea will never willingly give up its program,” Michael J. Morell, a former
deputy director of the C.I.A., and James A. Winnefeld Jr., a retired admiral
and a former vice chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, wrote last week on
the website The Cipher Brief.
「我們需要改變最基本的政策目標，因為朝鮮永遠不會自願放棄核計劃，」中情局(CIA)
前副局長邁克爾·J·莫雷爾(Michael J. Morell)和退役海軍上將、前參謀長聯席會議副
主席小詹姆斯·A·溫內費爾德(James A. Winnefeld Jr.)上週在The Cipher Brief的網
站上寫道。
“Washington’s belief that this was possible was a key mistake in our
initial policy thinking,” added the two men, experienced hands at countering
the North. The United States and China, they argue, should abandon the idea
of denuclearizing the Korean Peninsula and turn to old-fashioned deterrence.
「我們最初的政策思路中的一個關鍵性錯誤，就是華盛頓相信這是有可能的，」他們寫道
，兩人在朝鮮問題上有著豐富經驗。他們認為，美國和中國應放棄讓朝鮮半島無核化的想
法，轉向老式的威懾。
Similarly, Robert Einhorn, a former senior State Department nonproliferation
expert, writes in a new report for the Brookings Institution that a “
dual-track strategy involving both pressure and negotiations” would be more
likely to “bring China on board.” The technique is reminiscent of what was
used to push Iran into nuclear negotiations.
同樣，前國務院高級防擴散專家羅伯特·艾因霍恩(Robert Einhorn)在為布魯金斯學會
(Brookings Institution)撰寫的一份新報告中寫道，「既施壓又談判的雙軌戰略」更有
可能「讓中國加入」。這樣的手法讓人想起了當初用來逼迫伊朗參加核談判的策略。
But Mr. Einhorn cautioned that “while the complete denuclearization of North
Korea would be the ultimate goal of negotiations, there is virtually no
prospect that it could be achieved in the near term.”
但艾因霍恩告誡稱，「儘管朝鮮完全無核化是談判的最終目標，但在近期實現這個目標的
希望幾乎沒有。」
The Chinese appear unlikely to make more than token efforts to squeeze North
Korea, fearing the repercussions if the regime were to collapse, and Mr. Kim
has made it clear that he is not about to negotiate away what he sees as his
main protection against being overthrown by the United States and its allies.
由於害怕朝鮮政權崩潰的後果，除象徵性的措施外，中國似乎不太可能採取其他逼迫朝鮮
的動作。金正恩已表明不會通過談判放棄核計劃，在他看來那是防止被美國及其盟友推翻
的主要保護措施。
“China will either decide to help us with North Korea, or they won’t,” Mr.
Trump said in the Financial Times interview. If the Chinese fail to act, he
added, “it won’t be good for anyone.”
「中國要麼決定幫助我們解決朝鮮問題，要麼不幫，」川普在《金融時報》的採訪中說，
並接著表示，如果中國不行動起來，「對誰都不好」。
It is unclear how close North Korea is to constructing a hydrogen bomb. But
Siegfried S. Hecker, a Stanford University professor who once directed the
Los Alamos weapons laboratory in New Mexico, and has visited the North’s
main nuclear complex, said the ad for lithium 6, while surprising, was a
reminder that North Korea, though a backward country, was still capable of
major technical advances.
尚不清楚朝鮮離製造一枚氫彈的目標有多近。但曾擔任新墨西哥州洛斯阿拉莫斯武器實驗
室主任，並參觀過朝鮮主要核設施的坦福大學教授西格弗里德·S·赫克(Siegfried S.
Hecker)稱，銷售鋰6的廣告令人意外，同時也提醒我們，儘管是一個落後的國家，朝鮮依
然有能力取得重大技術進步。
“I can’t imagine they’re not working on true thermonuclear weapons,” Dr.
Hecker said in an interview.
「他們要是沒有在研製真正的熱核武器，我會很驚訝的，」赫克在採訪中說。
As Mr. Trump and Mr. Xi meet on Thursday and Friday, Mr. Kim, on the other
side of the world, may have a plan of his own for the summit meeting:
Satellite photographs suggest he is preparing for a sixth nuclear test.
Workers have dug a deep tunnel, which can block radioactive leaks if
carefully sealed, leaving intelligence experts struggling to estimate the
North’s progress.
在川普和習近平在週四、週五兩天舉行會面時，在世界的另一端，金正恩也許為這次首腦
會談安排了自己的計劃：衛星照片顯示，他正在準備第六次核試驗。工作人員已經挖好了
一條幽深的隧道。如果仔細密封，這條隧道可以封鎖泄漏的放射性物質，讓情報專家難以
估計朝鮮的進展。
American intelligence officials, and their South Korean and Japanese
counterparts, are debating whether the next blasts will mark major steps down
the road to a true thermonuclear weapon.
美國情報官員正在和韓國及日本的情報官員討論，接下來的爆炸會不會標誌著朝鮮在製造
真正的熱核武器的道路上取得了重要進步。
The lithium 6 ad is evidence that Mr. Kim is following a road map that the
United States drew up back in 1954. That was when it tested its first
thermonuclear weapon fueled by the isotope. The blast, code-named Bravo, was
the most powerful the United States ever detonated. In minutes, its mushroom
cloud rose to a height of 25 miles.
鋰6的廣告證明，金正恩正在按照美國1954年制定的路線圖行事。當時，美國試驗了第一
枚以同位素為燃料的熱核彈。代號為「布拉沃」(Bravo)的那次爆炸，是美國引爆的威力
最大的。幾分鐘內，蘑菇雲便升到了25英里（約合40公里）的高度。
Though difficult to make, hydrogen bombs became the symbol of Cold War power
— they are awesomely destructive and relatively cheap. The weapon relies on
a small atom bomb, inside a thick metal casing, that works like a match to
ignite the hydrogen fuel. For decades, bomb makers have used lithium 6 as a
standard way of making hydrogen fuel for nuclear arms.
儘管難以製造，但氫彈成了冷戰中的實力象徵。它們極具破壞性，同時又相對廉價。這種
武器依靠的是一枚小型原子彈。它被一個厚厚的金屬外殼包裹著，用於像火柴一樣點燃氫
燃料。幾十年來，炸彈製造者一直把鋰6作為製造用於核武器的氫燃料的標準方式。
Last month, two Los Alamos scientists argued that the rocky North Korean test
site the United States monitors could confine explosions of up to 282
kilotons — roughly 20 times as strong as the Hiroshima blast. Although a
hydrogen bomb can be that powerful, so can large atom bombs. Previously, the
largest blasts at the site were in the Hiroshima range.
上月，洛斯阿拉莫斯的兩位科學家認為，美國監視的那個布滿岩石的朝鮮試驗場，可以承
受威力高達282千噸的爆炸——大致相當於廣島爆炸威力的20倍。儘管氫彈可以達到這樣
的威力，但大型原子彈也可以。以前，該試驗場進行的威力最大的爆炸和廣島的水平相當
。
When Mr. Kim declared last year that the North had set off a hydrogen bomb,
there was no evidence to back up the claim, such as enormous shock waves felt
around the globe. More likely, experts said, Mr. Kim’s scientists had
created a “boosted” atomic bomb in which a tiny bit of thermonuclear fuel
resulted in a slightly higher explosive yield but fell well short of a true
hydrogen bomb.
在金正恩去年宣稱朝鮮已引爆一枚氫彈後，沒有證據支持這一說法，比如全球都能感受到
的強烈衝擊波。專家稱，更有可能是金正恩組織起來的科學家製造了一枚「加強版」原子
彈，裡面的少許熱核燃料導致爆炸威力略微變大，但還遠遠沒達到真正的氫彈水平。
“It’s possible that North Korea has already boosted,” said Gregory S.
Jones, a scientist at the RAND Corporation who analyzes nuclear issues. Like
other experts, he pointed to the nation’s two nuclear blasts last year as
possible tests of small boosted arms.
「可能朝鮮已經進行了加強，」蘭德公司(RAND Corporation)分析核問題的科學家格雷戈
裡·S·瓊斯(Gregory S. Jones)說。和其他專家一樣，他也認為朝鮮去年的兩次核爆可
能是在試驗小型的加強版武器。
A next logical step would be for the North to turn the material it was
advertising online, lithium 6, into a more complex kind of thermonuclear fuel
arrangement for a much more powerful bomb. The first Soviet thermonuclear
test, in 1953, used that method. It was more than 25 times as strong as the
Hiroshima bomb.
朝鮮的下一步理應是把它在網上做廣告的鋰6變成一種更複雜的熱核燃料，用於威力大得
多的炸彈。蘇聯在1953年進行的第一次熱核試驗用的就是這個辦法。那枚熱核彈的威力是
投在廣島那枚原子彈的25倍多。
“It’s a big step,” Dr. Hecker, the Stanford professor, said of a true
hydrogen bomb, adding that it was perhaps beyond the North’s skill. But over
all, he said, the North has shown technical savvy in carefully pacing its
nuclear tests, suggesting that it would eventually learn the main secrets of
nuclear arms.
「那是很大的一個跨越，」前述史丹佛大學教授赫克說到真正的氫彈時說，並接著表示它
或許超出了朝鮮的能力範圍。但總體上，他說，朝鮮已經表現出了慎重把握核試驗節奏的
技術實力，這表明，它最終可能得到核武器的主要祕密。
“They’ve done five tests in 10 years,” he said. “You can learn a lot in
that time.”
「十年時間裡他們試驗了五次，」他說。「在這期間，可以學到很多。」
4.完整新聞連結 (或短網址):
https://nyti.ms/2n3vvxo
5.備註: