[討論] 如果新北市議會選區為單一選區

作者: Neptunium (第九十三號元素)   2020-06-14 23:58:47
目前台灣各縣市議會是施行複數選區制
有就是在一個選區中只要是前幾名就可以當選
跟立委單一選區不一樣
我以我想說
如果有一天台灣如果變得跟美國一樣
地區議會也是單一選區的話
那選區會怎麼話分呢
藍綠的比例會怎麼分部?
所以我做了一些圖
盡量是依照村里分布去化圖,同時讓人口盡可能一樣(依2020有效票為依歸)
沒有特地傑利蠑螈
扣除原住民選區的話,新北市有64席席位
結果如下:
https://i.imgur.com/ChrG91W.png
標號版本:
https://i.imgur.com/FoJh2lL.png
https://i.imgur.com/oEUd8id.png
各區的藍綠基本盤如下:
選區 宋 韓 蔡 宋% 韓% 蔡% 總得票 相對基本盤
1 1565 15145 21041 4.15% 40.12% 55.74% 37751 -1.39%
2 1773 16586 20288 4.59% 42.92% 52.50% 38647 -4.64%
3 1929 16456 21452 4.84% 41.31% 53.85% 39837 -3.28%
4 1816 14857 22308 4.66% 38.11% 57.23% 38981 0.10%
5 2179 16350 20141 5.63% 42.28% 52.08% 38670 -5.05%
6 1756 14192 22303 4.59% 37.10% 58.31% 38251 1.18%
7 1791 14137 23122 4.59% 36.20% 59.21% 39050 2.08%
8 1642 11115 26085 4.23% 28.62% 67.16% 38842 10.03%
9 1883 11940 25440 4.80% 30.41% 64.79% 39263 7.66%
10 1762 12221 25132 4.50% 31.24% 64.25% 39115 7.12%
11 1773 12368 24104 4.64% 32.34% 63.03% 38245 5.89%
12 1663 11661 24401 4.41% 30.91% 64.68% 37725 7.55%
13 1708 11176 25395 4.46% 29.20% 66.34% 38279 9.21%
14 1706 12236 23529 4.55% 32.65% 62.79% 37471 5.66%
15 1866 13388 22717 4.91% 35.26% 59.83% 37971 2.70%
16 1683 11588 24558 4.45% 30.63% 64.92% 37829 7.79%
17 1778 12799 24209 4.58% 33.00% 62.42% 38786 5.29%
18 1818 12747 24306 4.68% 32.79% 62.53% 38871 5.40%
19 1794 13742 23014 4.65% 35.65% 59.70% 38550 2.57%
20 1747 12788 23454 4.60% 33.66% 61.74% 37989 4.61%
21 1683 12361 24719 4.34% 31.89% 63.77% 38763 6.64%
22 1759 13311 22701 4.66% 35.24% 60.10% 37771 2.97%
23 1862 12749 24193 4.80% 32.85% 62.35% 38804 5.22%
24 1806 12227 24432 4.70% 31.79% 63.52% 38465 6.39%
25 1772 12599 24433 4.57% 32.47% 62.97% 38804 5.83%
26 1923 13307 22679 5.07% 35.10% 59.82% 37909 2.69%
27 1813 13143 23610 4.70% 34.08% 61.22% 38566 4.09%
28 1874 13315 23629 4.83% 34.30% 60.87% 38818 3.74%
29 1880 15856 19680 5.02% 42.38% 52.60% 37416 -4.53%
30 1693 13971 22710 4.41% 36.41% 59.18% 38374 2.05%
31 1855 14501 22720 4.75% 37.11% 58.14% 39076 1.01%
32 1782 13392 22709 4.70% 35.35% 59.95% 37883 2.81%
33 1893 14246 22846 4.86% 36.54% 58.60% 38985 1.47%
34 1732 13414 22223 4.63% 35.90% 59.47% 37369 2.34%
35 1827 13483 22901 4.78% 35.29% 59.93% 38211 2.80%
36 1831 14294 22848 4.70% 36.68% 58.63% 38973 1.49%
37 1750 14726 22714 4.47% 37.58% 57.96% 39190 0.83%
38 1745 14793 22173 4.51% 38.21% 57.28% 38711 0.15%
39 1790 13839 23542 4.57% 35.33% 60.10% 39171 2.97%
40 1778 12611 25203 4.49% 31.85% 63.66% 39592 6.53%
41 1639 12948 23527 4.30% 33.97% 61.73% 38114 4.60%
42 1753 14217 22335 4.58% 37.12% 58.31% 38305 1.18%
43 1876 15674 21570 4.80% 40.07% 55.14% 39120 -1.99%
44 1785 15082 21988 4.59% 38.82% 56.59% 38855 -0.54%
45 1711 15298 20948 4.51% 40.30% 55.19% 37957 -1.94%
46 1738 16435 20475 4.50% 42.52% 52.98% 38648 -4.15%
47 1816 17554 19390 4.69% 45.29% 50.03% 38760 -7.10%
48 1639 20026 16232 4.32% 52.84% 42.83% 37897 -14.30%
49 1828 19287 18025 4.67% 49.28% 46.05% 39140 -11.08%
50 1727 19560 17814 4.42% 50.02% 45.56% 39101 -11.57%
51 1739 19461 17908 4.45% 49.76% 45.79% 39108 -11.34%
52 1882 19442 17768 4.81% 49.73% 45.45% 39092 -11.68%
53 1681 19304 16840 4.44% 51.04% 44.52% 37825 -12.61%
54 1697 20159 16533 4.42% 52.51% 43.07% 38389 -14.06%
55 1571 20504 15915 4.14% 53.97% 41.89% 37990 -15.24%
56 1677 18819 17232 4.44% 49.88% 45.67% 37728 -11.46%
57 1647 19958 16895 4.28% 51.84% 43.88% 38500 -13.25%
58 1641 20517 16951 4.20% 52.46% 43.34% 39109 -13.79%
59 1490 16011 21100 3.86% 41.48% 54.66% 38601 -2.47%
60 1588 16613 21534 4.00% 41.81% 54.19% 39735 -2.94%
61 1797 15994 21050 4.63% 41.18% 54.20% 38841 -2.94%
62 1654 16264 19577 4.41% 43.38% 52.21% 37495 -4.92%
63 1819 15350 21293 4.73% 39.91% 55.36% 38462 -1.77%
64 1545 15524 21372 4.02% 40.38% 55.60% 38441 -1.53%
總計:
鐵藍 ( ~-15%) 1
深藍 (-15%~-10%) 10
中藍 (-10%~- 5%) 2
淺藍 (- 5%~- 2%) 8
中間 (- 2%~ 2%) 14
淺綠 ( 2%~ 5%) 14
中綠 ( 5%~ 10%) 14
深綠 ( 10%~ 15%) 1
鐵綠 ( 15%~ ) 0
https://i.imgur.com/sBjAdH7.png
https://i.imgur.com/xFCbthX.png
作者: wupaul (22222)   2020-06-15 00:04:00
新北那麼綠喔 跟我想的不太一樣呢
作者: akway (生活就是要快樂)   2020-06-15 00:05:00
因為侯友宜可以藍綠通吃 還好他不會影響議員立委綠營席次可以切割投票
作者: elainakuo (黑黑)   2020-06-15 00:06:00
新北也是因為蔡 才會比較高 議員就不好說了
作者: rayisgreat (竹楓嵐雪)   2020-06-15 00:06:00
我覺得若不是韓導的話 侯新北站台會讓DPP倒掉幾席
作者: yuxds (cody)   2020-06-15 00:07:00
議員是 藍的33席 綠的25席 你說會影響議員選票嗎
作者: MagicSword (...)   2020-06-15 00:08:00
選區越小,越是看人選本身吧,無關黨派吧。
作者: rayisgreat (竹楓嵐雪)   2020-06-15 00:09:00
這次新北因韓導倒了好幾個 沒他的話kmt應該有4席左右
作者: MagicSword (...)   2020-06-15 00:11:00
就美白小腿那席吧,不過,是討論議員嗎?
作者: akway (生活就是要快樂)   2020-06-15 00:11:00
新北議員時力全部都是落選頭 這個對泛綠影響比較大
作者: rayisgreat (竹楓嵐雪)   2020-06-15 00:15:00
時力新北落選頭彭彭QQ 希望2022要上啊
作者: SuperBMW (超級O賓士)   2020-06-15 00:23:00
早就說過時代力量去貼侯友宜跑剪綵,反而是加分XDD這篇數據還我一個清白 呼XD
作者: chiangdapang (蔣大胖)   2020-06-15 01:38:00
單一選區下,選民會趨向於兩黨制
作者: cusco3334 (龍武神)   2020-06-15 08:32:00
這麼說那其他黨解散算了

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