標題: How China Could Shut Down America’s Defenses
中國如何能使美國的國防停止運作
新聞來源: Foreign Policy
原文：https://tinyurl.com/yyez8286
中譯 (觀察者)：https://www.guancha.cn/KeithJohnson/2019_06_19_506156.shtml
Advanced U.S. weapons are almost entirely reliant on rare-earth materials
only made in China—and they could be a casualty of the trade war.
先進的美國武器幾乎完全依賴於僅在中國製造的稀土材料 – 而它們可能成為貿易戰的犧
牲品
BY KEITH JOHNSON, LARA SELIGMAN | JUNE 11, 2019, 5:10 PM
President Donald Trump has often argued that China has much more to lose than
the United States in a trade war, but critics say his administration has
failed to address a major U.S. vulnerability: Beijing maintains powerful
leverage over the warmaking capability of its main strategic rival through
its control of critical materials.
美國總統川普經常說，在中美貿易戰裡中國可能失去的比美國多得多，但批評人士指出，
美國有個要害是川普政府沒法防守的：對關鍵材料的掌控為中國提供了強大的槓桿，使其
得以控制主要戰略對手的戰爭能力。
Every advanced weapon in the U.S. arsenal—from Tomahawk missiles to the F-35
fighter jet to Aegis-equipped destroyers and cruisers and everything in
between—is absolutely reliant on components made using rare-earth elements,
including critical items such as permanent magnets and specialized alloys
that are almost exclusively made in China. Perhaps more worrisome is that the
long-term U.S. supply of smart bombs and guided munitions that would have to
be replenished in a hurry in the event of U.S. conflict in Syria, Iran, or
elsewhere are essentially reliant on China’s acquiescence in their continued
production.
美國軍火庫裡的每一種先進武器——從戰斧巡航導彈到F-35戰鬥機，再到配備宙斯盾的驅
逐艦、巡洋艦等各式艦隻——都絕對依賴於用稀土元素製造的零部件，包括永磁體、特種
合金等關鍵物品，它們幾乎全部產自中國。更令人擔憂的或許是，如果美國在敘利亞、伊
朗或其他地方介入衝突，就必須迅速補充智能炸彈和精確制導彈藥，而它們的長期供應基
本依賴於中國對持續生產此類物資的默許。
Chinese threats to cut off U.S. supplies of rare earths, first floated by
Beijing in late May, haven’t abated. Over the weekend, Chinese state media
suggested that high-end, finished products using rare earths that the U.S.
defense industry requires could be included in China’s technology-export
restrictions, themselves a response to U.S. pressure on the telecoms giant
Huawei. “China is capable of impacting the US supply chain through certain
technical controls,” said an editorial in China’s Global Times that
pointedly referred to processed rare earths.
5月下旬，北京方面放出風聲中國可能切斷美國的稀土供應，這個威脅至今沒有消除。六
月初，中國官方媒體稱，可能將美國國防工業所需的高端稀土製成品納入中國限制技術出
口清單，這種限制本身是在回應美國向通信巨頭華為施壓的做法。中國《環球時報》的一
篇社論頗有針對性地提到了稀土加工，它寫道：“有能力通過一些技術管制對美國企業的
供應鏈完整造成衝擊。”
“China has effectively altered the way we manage war, and potentially the
outcome,” said James Kennedy, the founder of ThREE Consulting, a rare-earths
consultancy focused on security implications.
釷與稀土元素諮詢公司（ThREE Consulting）是一家專注於安全問題的稀土諮詢公司，其
創始人詹姆斯·肯尼迪表示：“中國實際上已經改變了我們美國管理戰爭的方式，還可能
改變戰爭的結果。”
For all the hints of a new cold war with China, Kennedy said, U.S.
warfighting capabilities are to a large extent in the hands of the one
country that has come to be seen by U.S. national security officials as a
peer competitor and a strategic rival.
肯尼迪說，中美新冷戰的跡像已經浮現，美國國家安全官員把中國看作一個勢均力敵的競
爭者和戰略對手，而美國的作戰能力在很大程度上卻掌握在中國手裡。
“Rare earths are actually a hegemonic trigger. If the United States gets
into a conflict, China is supplying the majority of the upscale weapons,” he
said. “China can determine the outcome of the conflict, and that could
result in a hegemonic shift.”
他表示：“稀土實際上是一種霸權觸發器。如果美國陷入衝突，它使用的大部分先進武器
是中國供應的，也就是說中國能夠決定衝突的結果，這可能導致霸權轉移。”
If rare-earth elements have become the key ingredient in all sorts of
advanced civilian technology such as cell phones, electric cars, and
renewable energy equipment, they’re doubly important for defense. Each
Virginia-class attack submarine needs 9,200 pounds of rare-earth materials,
while each F-35 needs 920 pounds, according to a 2013 Congressional Research
Service report.
稀土元素是各種先進民用技術的關鍵成分，比如手機、電動汽車和可再生能源設備。它們
對國防的重要程度更加不言而喻。美國國會研究服務中心2013年的報告顯示，每造一艘弗
吉尼亞級攻擊核潛艇需要9200磅（4173公斤）稀土材料，每架F-35需要用920磅（417公斤
）。
The defense industry, unlike most other sectors, doesn’t need low-end
rare-earth materials that—contrary to their name—are actually commonly
found in many places around the world. Rather, what the defense industry most
needs are highly processed rare-earth products, especially permanent magnets,
that are essentially made only in Japan and China. And while Japan, itself
stung by a Chinese rare-earth embargo in 2010 and 2011, has made some
progress emancipating itself from reliance on Chinese suppliers, its
rare-earth value chain is still deeply enmeshed with China, leaving it with
little ability to ramp up production volumes to bail out U.S. consumers while
still meeting its own domestic needs.
國防工業與大多數其他行業不同，不需要低端稀土材料。稀土雖然名字有個“稀”字，但
其實世界各地儲量都不少。然而國防工業最需要的是高度加工的稀土產品，特別是永磁體
，而其生產者基本只有日本和中國。日本2010年和2011年曾受中國稀土禁運影響，儘管此
後它在一定程度上降低了對中國供應商的依賴，但其稀土價值鏈仍與中國緊密相連，幾乎
沒有能力提高產量在滿足其國內需求的同時照顧到美國。
The highest-end products are high-powered magnets, which are what make the
guidance systems on smart bombs and cruise missiles work and what runs Aegis
missile-tracking and secure communications.
最高端的稀土產品是高功率磁材料，它應用於智能炸彈和巡航導彈的制導系統，對宙斯盾
的導彈跟蹤和安全通信也不可或缺。
But there are a host of other rare-earth products that the defense industry
relies on, Kennedy said. Those include temperature-resistant coatings and
alloys for jet engines and stealth coatings for fuselages, all advanced
targeting systems, advanced radar and sonar, and even night-vision goggles.
肯尼迪表示，美國國防工業對其他許多稀土產品也十分依賴，包括用於噴氣發動機的耐高
溫塗層和合金以及用於機身的隱形塗層，所有先進的瞄準系統，先進的雷達和聲納系統，
甚至還包括夜視鏡。
The Pentagon has been grappling with the importance—and vulnerability—of
rare earths in the defense industrial base for years. Successive
administrations have sought to either revitalize the once-booming U.S.
rare-earths industry, stockpile critical materials, or line up alternative
suppliers—but with little success so far.
多年以來，五角大樓一直努力想要克服重要稀土材料給國防工業基礎帶來的脆弱性。歷屆
美國政府都試圖重振盛極一時的美國稀土行業，儲備關鍵材料，以及安排替代供應商，但
迄今收效甚微。
China often subsidizes its rare-earth firms and sells at or below cost, which
makes it very difficult for private firms to make a go in the business.
Alternative supplies of rare-earth ore abound, but China has a dominant
position in the processed rare-earth products that the defense industry
needs. The Department of Defense has no clear definition of just what
critical materials are needed, and defense stockpiles of critical materials
often are not in usable form.
中國經常補貼其稀土公司，以成本價或低於成本價出售，這使得私營公司很難涉足這個行
業。能代替中國提供稀土礦石的供應商比比皆是，但中國在稀土加工產品上佔據了統治地
位，而這些產品才是美國國防工業所需要的。美國國防部對到底需要哪些關鍵材料缺乏明
確定義，其儲備的關鍵材料也往往不是可用的形式。
“DOD has no comprehensive, department-wide approach to determine which rare
earths are critical to national security, and how to deal with potential
supply disruptions to ensure continued, reliable access,” concluded the
Government Accountability Office in 2016.
2016年，美國政府問責辦公室得出的結論是：“美國國防部沒有全面的、統一的方法來確
定哪些稀土對國家安全最重要。一旦發生供應中斷，缺乏應對措施來確保持續、可靠的來
源。”
The Pentagon most clearly outlined its concerns in a 2018 review ordered by
the White House, which accused China of deliberately leveraging its monopoly
on these minerals to squeeze the U.S. defense industrial base. The report
specifically warned that China is the sole source or primary supplier for a
number of critical materials used in munitions and missiles. For example, the
United States used to make neodymium ion boron permanent magnets, the gizmo
that helps guide guided missiles to their targets; today, they are almost all
made in China, and none are manufactured in the United States.
在白宮要求之下，2018年五角大樓發佈了評估報告，清楚地表達了美軍方對稀土問題的擔
憂，該報告指責中國故意利用其對稀土礦的壟斷來擠壓美國國防工業基礎。該報告特別警
告說，中國是美軍許多種彈藥和導彈所使用的某些關鍵材料的唯一來源或主要供應商。例
如一種幫助導彈制導的小玩意兒叫做釹-鐵-硼永磁體，過去美國自己就能生產，而今幾乎
全部靠中國製造，美國完全不生產了。
In many cases there is no alternative for this material, and in others the
time and cost to test and qualify alternatives would be “prohibitive,” the
report found.
報告發現，在多數情況下，這種材料缺乏替代品，而在另一些情況下，測試和鑑定替代品
的時間和成本高得令人“望而生畏”。
“China represents a significant and growing risk to the supply of materials
and technologies deemed strategic and critical to U.S. national security,”
the report concluded. And it underscored the potential national security
vulnerabilities as Washington’s trade war with Beijing heated up.
報告總結道：“一些關鍵材料和技術對於美國國家安全具有戰略意義，而它們的供應受到
來自中國的重大且不斷增長的風險。”隨著中美貿易衝突升溫，這種依賴性凸顯出美國潛
在的國家安全漏洞。
“China’s trade dominance and its willingness to use trade as a weapon of
soft power increases the risks America’s manufacturing and defense
industrial base faces in relying on a strategic competitor for critical
goods, services, and commodities,” the report said.
報告稱，“美國製造與國防工業基礎依賴戰略競爭對手提供關鍵貨物、服務和商品，而中
國的貿易主導地位及其以貿易作為軟實力武器的意願增加了美國面臨的風險。”
Former defense officials stress that despite years of attention to the
potential vulnerability, it’s not clear that the United States yet has a
solution.
美國前國防官員強調，儘管這種潛在的脆弱性多年來備受關注，但目前尚不清楚是否有解
決方案。
“Rare-earth elements are critical for defense applications, and there are no
easy alternatives for their functionalities, so we absolutely need them,”
said Andrew Hunter, the director of the Defense-Industrial Initiatives Group
at the Center for Strategic and International Studies and a former senior
Pentagon official. “It would be a major blow to the defense industrial base
if we were cut off from rare earths.”
曾任五角大樓高官的美國戰略與國際研究中心國防工業倡議組主任安德魯·亨特說：“稀
土元素對國防應用至關重要，它們的功能性沒有簡單的替代品，所以我們絕對是需要它們
的。如果我們的稀土供應被切斷，國防工業基礎將受到沉重打擊。”
Having weathered one Chinese embargo on rare-earth exports nearly a decade
ago, which led to price spikes but only temporary disruptions, many Pentagon
officials put their faith in market solutions, Hunter said. “I sense that
still holds, but I’m not sanguine that it will remain that way without more
government intervention,” he said.
亨特表示，中國近十年前的稀土出口禁運曾一度導致價格飆升，但僅造成暫時性干擾，所
以許多五角大樓官員寄希望於市場解決方案。但他認為：“我覺得市場方案仍然可行，但
如果政府不採取更多干預措施，我對其未來的可行性無法保持樂觀。”
Still, it is far from clear that Beijing will make good on implicit threats
to cut off U.S. access to certain critical minerals. Hu Xijin, the editor of
the Global Times tabloid, which is owned by the Chinese Communist Party, said
in late May that the government was considering the idea but cautioned that
it may not act right away. Such a curtailment would be seen in Beijing and
Washington as an extremely provocative step—especially after China has spent
the last decade trying to rebuild its reputation as a reliable supplier of
critical rare earths.
儘管如此，目前還不清楚北京方面是否真的會切斷美國獲取某些關鍵礦物的渠道。 5月底
，中國《環球時報》主編胡錫進表示，政府不是沒有考慮這個想法，但可能不會立即採取
行動。中美雙方都知道，稀土斷供將是極具挑釁性的一步棋——特別考慮到中國過去十年
來一直試圖重新成為重要稀土材料的可靠供應商。
“I think Chinese government won’t do this immediately,” Hu wrote on
Twitter, “but it’s seriously evaluating the need to do so.”
胡錫進在推特上寫道：“我認為中國政府不會立即這樣做，但它正在認真評估這樣做的必
要性。”
China has had a laser focus on rare earths and their importance to advanced
technologies since the Deng Xiaoping years—the former Chinese leader
reportedly likened the leverage it gave Beijing to the Middle East’s control
of oil supplies.
自鄧小平時代以來，中國一直高度重視稀土及其在先進技術領域的重要性。鄧小平曾把稀
土對中國的重要性與控制石油供應對中東的重要性相提並論，他指出：“中東有石油，中
國有稀土。”
And that industrial dominance has come to complement China’s breakneck race
to match the U.S. military’s technological dominance, put on explosive
display during the Gulf War, when smart bombs revolutionized modern warfare.
That development convinced Chinese leaders they would have to catch up
technologically to pose a credible threat to U.S. military might, and Beijing
has spent the last 30 years doing just that, noted former U.S. Deputy Defense
Secretary Robert Work and his former Pentagon colleague Greg Grant in a new
study for the Center for a New American Security on China’s own “
military-technical offset.”
中國稀土產業的主導地位對軍用技術奮起直追提供了支持與配合。海灣戰爭展示了美國軍
用技術的先進性，美軍的智能炸彈徹底改變了現代戰爭。美國前國防部常務副部長羅伯特
·沃克及其同僚格雷格·格蘭特在為新美國安全中心撰寫的關於中國“軍事-技術抵消戰
略”新報告指出，海灣戰爭使中國領導人堅信必須在技術上迎頭趕上，要對美國軍事力量
構成可信威脅，這也是過去30年來中國一直在做的事。
It didn’t used to be this way. From the 1960s into the 1980s, the United
States dominated both the mining and processing of rare earths. But that
started to change, partly because of challenging economics in what is still a
niche industry, and partly because China’s lax environmental standards give
it an advantage in the dirty business of extracting the stuff, which is often
mixed with radioactive material.
然而，在上世紀60年代到80年代時，主導稀土開採和加工的曾經是美國。但由於稀土是個
難以大幅牟利的小眾行業，再加上中國較為寬鬆的環境標準（稀土往往與放射性物質混合
在一起）使其在開採方面佔據優勢，美國的主導地位開始動搖。
One important blow to the U.S. industry was a 1980 regulatory change
regarding the handling of thorium, a radioactive element, that drove
conventional miners of iron, zinc, and other raw materials—once the source
of most rare-earth production—to dispose of rare-earth ores rather than use
them. Combined with China’s state subsidies, lax standards, and desire to
corner the market, it amounted to a wholesale shift in who controlled what
would become one of the key building blocks of the modern economy—and modern
militaries.
1980年，美國修改了處理放射性元素釷的監管政策，禁止傳統礦業公司在開採鐵、鋅等原
材料的同時對伴生的釷元素加以利用，迫使它們將稀土礦處理掉。這對美國稀土行業造成
了沉重打擊，再加上中國保持寬鬆政策以搶佔市場，種種因素疊加在一起，帶來了一場徹
底的轉變：作為現代經濟和現代軍隊關鍵組成部分的稀土，掌握權易手了。
The shift of rare-earth dominance to China happened to coincide with a
revolution in military affairs, where high-tech weapons using ever more
difficult-to-acquire materials became the go-to arrows in the U.S. quiver.
Tomahawk missiles, for example, are about the most ubiquitous and most used
weapon in the U.S. arsenal, but they can’t read terrain and find their
targets without the critical materials now controlled by China.
稀土主導權轉向中國的同時，另一場軍事革命也在進行中，美軍的高科技武器越來越多地
採用那些難以獲取的材料。以美國軍火庫中最常見的戰斧巡航導彈為例，如果得不到由中
國控制的關鍵材料，戰斧導彈就無法讀取地形並找到目標。
Next-generation weapons will likely be even more reliant on highly processed
rare-earth materials, Kennedy said, including hypersonic missiles,
directed-energy weapons, and even quantum computing.
肯尼迪表示，高超音速導彈、定向能武器等下一代武器以及量子計算，都可能更加依賴高
度加工的稀土材料。
The Pentagon does maintain a stockpile of lots of different critical
materials and rare earths—but mostly in raw or intermediate form, not in the
highly processed finished form that defense platforms actually require.
Rare-earth oxides, for example, still must be further processed or refined
into metals, alloys, and eventually the permanent magnets that run guidance
systems for missiles or navigation systems for American Abrams battle tanks.
The United States has very little rare-earth processing ability, and it would
take years to rebuild it.
儘管五角大樓儲備了多種關鍵材料和稀土，但主要是原始或中間形式，而不是國防平台所
需要的高度加工的成品形式。例如，稀土氧化物必須進一步加工或精煉才能形成金屬、合
金，並最終製成永磁體用於導彈制導系統和M1艾布拉姆斯系列主戰坦克的導航系統。美國
加工稀土的能力很差，重建需要許多年時間。
“The critical materials stockpile is a joke,” Kennedy said.
肯尼迪說：“關鍵材料儲備就是個笑話。”
The Trump administration and many lawmakers are redoubling efforts to restart
domestic rare-earth mining, and the Department of Commerce this month
released a report calling for the United States to address its reliance on
imported critical minerals.
The Defense Department recently asked Congress for federal funds to bolster
domestic production of these minerals. The Mountain Pass mine in California
is currently the only operating U.S. rare-earths facility. Notably, China’s
Shenghe Resources Holding Co. is a minority investor, and MP Materials, the
owner of Mountain Pass, ships the roughly 50,000 tons of concentrate it
extracts from California each year to China to be processed, according to
Reuters.
川普政府和許多議員正在極力重啟美國國內稀土開採，美國商務部本月發佈報告呼籲美國
解決對關鍵礦物的進口依賴問題。美國國防部最近向國會申請聯邦資金，用於支持稀土礦
物生產。加州的芒廷帕斯礦山是美國目前唯一運營的稀土設施。值得注意的是，據路透社
報導，中國的盛和資源控股股份有限公司持有該礦山的少數股權，該礦山所有者MP材料公
司每年將加州開採的約5萬噸濃縮礦運往中國加工。
At least three U.S.-based companies are planning to open rare-earth
processing plants, including one at Mountain Pass mine set to open next year
that will reportedly produce about 5,000 tons of rare earths a year, Reuters
reported.
據路透社報導，至少有三家美國公司計畫開設稀土加工廠，其中位於芒廷帕斯的那一家將
於明年開工，每年稀土產量約為5000噸。
But more mines and intermediate processing facilities likely won’t blunt
China’s control of the whole production chain—from mine to magnet. Even
highly touted announcements, such as Lynas Corp.’s decision to build a
rare-earth separation plant in Texas, don’t solve the Pentagon’s problem,
because the oxides must still be shipped overseas to be turned into alloys or
permanent magnets.
但即使美國開設更多礦山和加工廠，可能也難以削弱中國對從礦山到磁體的整個生產鏈的
控制。即使高調如萊納斯公司，其在得克薩斯建立稀土分離工廠的舉措也無法解決五角大
樓的問題，因為稀土氧化物仍然不得不運往海外，才能製成合金或永磁體。
One possible solution that has been rattling around Washington for years,
which Kennedy advocates, is to allow technology firms to create a
cooperative. That would be a way to provide soup-to-nuts rare-earth services:
mining the stuff, separating it, processing it, and finally turning it into
advanced metals, magnets, and more, without risking the serial bankruptcies
that have plagued the sector for decades.
多年來一直有人建議美國政府允許技術公司成立合作社——這也是肯尼迪提倡的辦法。它
將提供一條龍式的稀土服務：從開採、分離、加工，到製成先進的金屬與磁體等，而無需
擔心困擾該行業數十年的連續破產問題。
Some House Republicans have been urging the administration to take such a
step, and the White House could issue an executive order essentially
dictating the same measures.
眾議院的部分共和黨人在敦促政府盡快走出這一步，白宮可以通過簽發行政命令來實現這
些措施。
But for now, the United States is still left without an answer to its
rare-earth dilemma.
但就目前而言，美國的稀土困境仍然沒有解決。
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