COVID-19’S PAINFUL LESSON ABOUT STRATEGY AND POWER
美國要從防疫中吸取慘痛教訓
原文：https://tinyurl.com/wavjcmw
譯文：http://comment.cfisnet.com/2020/0403/1319129.html
作者：Joseph Nye
In 2017, President Donald Trump announced a new National Security Strategy
that focused on great-power competition with China and Russia. While the
plans also note the role of alliances and cooperation, the implementation has
not. Today, COVID-19 shows that the strategy is inadequate. Competition and
an “America First” approach is not enough to protect the United States.
Close cooperation with both allies and adversaries is also essential for
American security.
2017年，美國總統唐納德 ‧ 川普及其同事們，制定了一項全新的國家安全戰略，其重點
強調的是，與中俄展開所謂的大國競爭。雖然該計畫也闡述了聯盟和合作的作用，但在實
際的實踐操作中，卻沒有得到絲毫的落實，以至於被完全的忽視。現階段，美國對新型冠
狀病毒防控的糟糕表現證明，上述這些策略的失敗性和遲滯性。“戰略競爭”和“美國優
先”的兩大全球方針，目前甚至已經不足以保護美國本土的安全了。與盟國和對手開展有
針對性的密切合作，才是當前美國國家安全所應考慮的至關重要的問題。
Under the influence of the information revolution and globalization, world
politics is changing dramatically. Even if the United States prevails in the
traditional great-power competition, it cannot protect its security acting
alone. COVID-19 is not the only example. Global financial stability is vital
to U.S. prosperity, but Americans need the cooperation of others to ensure
it. And while trade wars have set back economic globalization, there is no
stopping the environmental globalization represented by pandemics and climate
change. In a world where borders are becoming more porous to everything from
drugs to infectious diseases to cyber terrorism, the United States must use
its soft power of attraction to develop networks and institutions that
address these new threats. For example, this administration proposed halving
the U.S. contribution to the World Health Organization’s budget — now we
need it more than ever.
在信息革命和經濟全球化的影響下，世界政治正在發生著劇變。即使美國在大國的傳統競
爭中獲得了勝利，也不能保證自身的絕對安全。美國現階段防疫的局面，並不是唯一的例
子。一直以來，金融穩定對美國和全球經濟的繁榮至關重要，但必須認清和別無選擇的是
，美國需要其他國家的合作和參與，才能夠保證全球經濟和金融系統的穩定。貿易戰雖然
能夠使經濟全球化的組織力受挫，但它並沒有能力去阻止和控制，以環境或衛生領域為代
表的其他全球化議題的展開，典型的例子就是大流行病和氣候變化的問題。在一個從毒品
到傳染病再到網絡恐怖主義的世界裡，美國必須在利用自身的軟實力和尊重他國行為體軟
實力的雙重基礎之上，來打造應對這些新威脅的體系和機制。例如，川普政府提議將美國
對世界衛生組織的預算捐款減半，無疑，現在的美國人比以往任何時候都更需要這筆錢。
A successful national security strategy should start with the fact that “
America First” means America has to lead efforts at cooperation. A classic
problem with public goods (like clean air, which all can share and from which
none can be excluded) is that if the largest consumer does not take the lead,
others will free-ride and the public goods will not be produced. As the
technology expert Richard Danzig summarizes the problem: Twenty-first century
technologies are global not just in their distribution, but also in their
consequences. Pathogens, AI systems, computer viruses, and radiation that
others may accidentally release could become as much our problem as theirs.
Agreed reporting systems, shared controls, common contingency plans, norms
and treaties must be pursued as a means of moderating our numerous mutual
risks. Tariffs and border walls cannot solve these problems. While American
leadership is essential because of the country’s global influence, success
will require the cooperation of others.
從傳統意義上而言，一個成功的國家安全戰略，的確應該從“國家優先”這一事實展開思
緒，但這也同時意味著，美國必須時刻把握，國際間所有的合作與努力動向。這無疑是不
切實際的。公共產品往往成為一切合作和努力的核心問題之一。(比如清潔的空氣質量，
優越的衛生條件。人人都可以分享，沒有哪個國家行為體可以被排除在外)。如果消費者
和生產者不能切實和積極地協調響應，就會產生頻繁的搭便車行為，公共產品的生產和保
障，也會受到一定的影響。正如技術專家們所總結的那樣：“在二十一世紀，技術分佈呈
現全球性，技術後果也呈現全球性。病原體、人工智能系統、計算機病毒和其他輻射，可
能會像技術本身一樣成為全球的問題。”——全球各國必須隨時做好準備，制定靈活的措
施和達成長久的共識：共同應急、共同響應，共同控制、共同規範（自身的行為）和共同
履約，以減輕共同的風險。貿易關稅和邊境壁壘絕不是長久之計。儘管大國具有絕對的全
球影響力，但未來的成功離不開與其他國家的合作。
On transnational issues like COVID-19 and climate change, power becomes a
positive-sum game. It is not enough to think of American power over others.
We must also think in terms of power to accomplish joint goals, which
involves power with others. On many transnational issues, empowering others
helps us to accomplish our own goals. The United States benefits if China
improves its energy efficiency and emits less carbon dioxide, or improves its
public health systems. In this world, institutional networks and
connectedness are an important source of information and of national power,
and the most connected states are the most powerful. Washington has some
sixty treaty allies while China has few. Unfortunately, as Mira Rapp-Hooper
recently argued, the United States is squandering that power resource.
在新型冠狀病毒和氣候變化等跨國問題上，國際政治間的權力已成為一種正和博弈。僅僅
考慮美國相對於其他國家的實力是遠遠不夠的。還必須要考慮的是，實現涉及權力和其他
權力因素的共同目標——適當賦予他人權力，可以幫助美國實現在許多跨國問題上的目標
。如果全球各相關國家，提高能源效率，減少二氧化碳排放，改善公共衛生系統，美國也
將會從中受益。在當今這個世界上，機制體系和信息聯通是一切國家權力的重要來源，信
息聯通最為密切的國家，往往是最為強大的那一個。美國目前大約有60個條約型盟友，但
不幸的是，美國近期防疫的表現，正在使自身的信譽下降，使這種資源流失。
In the past, the openness of the United States enhanced its capacity to build
networks, maintain institutions, and sustain alliances. But will that
openness and willingness to engage with the rest of the world prove
sustainable in the current populist mood of American domestic politics? Even
if the United States possesses more hard military and economic power than any
other country, it may fail to convert those resources into effective
influence on the global scene. Between the two world wars, America did not
and the result was disastrous.
在過去，美國的全球開放性增強了它建立體系、創新機制和保持聯盟的能力。但是，在當
前，美國國內政治民粹主義的情緒驅動下，與世界其他國家行為體接觸的開放性和意願性
還會繼續保持下去嗎？即使目前美國比世界上其他任何國家擁有更強的軍事和經濟實力，
它也可能無法將這些資源轉化為對全球局勢的有效影響了。在兩次世界大戰之間，美國沒
有參與國際事務，但結果卻是災難性的。
The key to America’s future security and prosperity is learning the
importance of “power with” as well as “power over” others. Every country
puts its interests first, but the important question is how broadly or
narrowly it defines those interests. This administration has shown an
inclination toward short-term, zero-sum, transactional interpretations, with
little attention to institutions and allies. “America First” is defined too
narrowly. It steps back from the long-term, enlightened self-interest that
marked the security strategy designed by FDR, Truman, and Eisenhower after
1945. The new threat to America’s security is not just from transnational
forces like COVID-19 and climate change, but from Americans’ domestic
failure to adjust their own attitudes to this new world. That is the painful
lesson that COVID-19 is teaching us.
國際間未來安全與繁榮的關鍵在於，需認識到“合作”和“凌駕”辯證關係的重要性。每
個國家都把自己的利益放在第一位，但重要的問題是，它在多大程度上（或在狹義上）能
夠界定和把握這些利益，並管控自己的慾望。目前的情況是，本屆美國政府更傾向於短期
的零和收益，很少關注體系和聯盟的重要性。對“美國優先”的定義過於狹隘。迴避了長
期且開明的利益觀，標誌著羅斯福、杜魯門和艾森豪威爾在1945年前後製定的國家安全戰
略開始走向湮滅。當前美國國家安全面臨的新威脅，不僅來自於新冠病毒和氣候變化等跨
國因素，更來自於目前美國國內未能適應和左右新世界的秩序和規則。這是美國要從新冠
病毒防疫中吸取的最為慘痛的教訓之一。