What Kind of Numbers can the Brooklyn Nets Expect From Him?
籃網隊可以期待林書豪繳出怎樣的場均數據呢? http://tinyurl.com/ztsowlr
The Brooklyn Nets are going to play Jeremy Lin in a bigger role than he’s
ever had, and more minutes than he’s ever played. This means a whole
different set of stats for Lin, and this is an attempt to gauge what kind of
offensive numbers we’re going to see from him next season.
籃網將讓林書豪承擔他從未有過的重大角色, 以及給他比從前更多的上場時間, 這表示
林書豪所有的數據都將變的不同, 也讓我們試著去推估下季林會有怎樣的攻擊端數據
The numbers I was thinking of are these: Lin taking 15 shots per game, going
to the line at least 6 times, and shooting four times from beyond the arc, at
least. Now, there are 7 NBA players with these kind of numbers last season:
James Harden, Paul George, Kyle Lowry, Russell Westbrook, Damian Lillard,
Isaiah Thomas and Kevin Durant. Is this aiming a bit too high for Lin, or is
it how dominant he’ll be for the Nets? I sorted their seasons by points per
game, assists per game and usage ration.
我是這樣想的: 每場15次出手, 上罰球線至少6次, 包含4次三分線出手, 上季有7名球員
有這樣的數據: 鬍子 & Paul George & K.Lowry & 西河 & Lillard & I.Thomas & KD.
這目標對林書豪來說會太高嗎? 還是說這說明了他在籃網隊中將會有的主宰性? 連結點
開後可以看到這幾位球員相關的數據整理
Is expecting Lin to put up so many shots, and maybe close to these numbers
(20 points, 8 assists per game, or something close to that) being too
optimistic. Maybe. His per 36 minutes numbers from last season: 16.1 points,
4.4 assists per game, taking 12.8 shots a game, including 4 from beyond the
arc and 5.1 free throw attempts per game. Lin averaged 26.3 minutes per game
last season, but only on a 22.2 usage ratio. Kyle Lowry, who shares the ball
with DeMar DeRozan, was the lowest ranked among the 7 players mentioned at
26.1%, and he still averaged 21.2 points with 6.4 assists per game. Everyone
on that list averaged over 21 points per game.
預期林書豪出手這樣多次並獲得20分8助攻左右的場均, 會太樂觀嗎? 或許吧, 他上季
數據用36分鐘來看會是16.1分4.4助攻場均, 出手12.8次, 包含三分線出手4次, 以及上
罰球線5.1次. 他上季場均26.3分鐘, 但只有22.2%使用率.
跟DeRozen一起上場分享球權的K.Lowry, 是這7名球員中使用率最低的, 但也還有26.1%
, 他上季場均繳出21.2分以及6.4助攻, 這7位球員場均得分都高於21分
One thing worth mentioning is three points. Westbrook, at 4.3, is the only
player on that list to take less than 5.5 three pointers a game. He’s also
the only player on that list to make less than 35% of his three pointers. Lin
made 33.6% of his three point shots last season, a decline after the constant
incline he had since the beginning of his career with his outside shot. Maybe
it was the matter of confidence from Clifford constantly using him in
different roles and minutes. Maybe it was his elbow injury, or the new
shooting motion. One thing is for sure: Lin hitting his 3’s at 37.5%-40%
makes him extremely dangerous.
其中值得一提的就是三分球, 西河三分場均出手4.3是這7位球員中唯一低於5.5的, 西河
上季的三分命中率也是這7位中唯一低於35%的; 林書豪上季三分僅有33.6%, 是生涯最低
, 或許這是因為來自Clifford對他的信任導致, Clifford通常給林不同的角色以及不同
的上場時間
但能確定一件事, 就是當林書豪三分命中率來到37.5%~40%之間時, 他是對手眼中最危險
的林書豪
Another thing worth considering is pace. It’s not mandatory: The Raptors
were tied with the Utah Jazz at 92.9 possessions per 48 minutes, and the
Brooklyn Nets were at 95.2, but they’ve constantly been around the lower
regions of the league in recent years. The Rockets, Thunder, Pacers and
Celtics were all ranked in the top 11 in possessions per 48 minutes last
season. The last season Mike D’Antoni coached, the Los Angeles Lakers were
2nd in the league in possessions per 48 minutes. The Atlanta Hawks were 8th
last season in that aspect, with Kenny Atkinson as one of the assistants.
When Lin was playing, the Hornets had a 98.4 pace factor, which would have
placed them 6th in the NBA. Lin being the point guard means high tempo.
另一個值得探討的是球隊節奏pace, 暴龍跟爵士的pace都是92.9, 籃網是95.2卻長年在
聯盟墊底, 上季火箭雷霆溜馬跟青賽全都是聯盟前11快節奏的球隊; D'Antoni在湖人執
教的最後一季, 湖人pace是聯盟第二快; Atkinson上季在老鷹當助教時, 老鷹pace是聯
盟第8, 而上季當林書豪上場時黃蜂的pace飆高到98.4, 可以排上聯盟第6, 讓林書豪當
控衛就表示快速度的節奏
However, Lin is different from the players on this list, who are all
shot-first players. Lin might have been forced into that situation last
season and at times with the Lakers and the Rockets, but he’s first about
making others around him better. Obviously, if the best thing for the Nets
will be for Lin to be their main scorer, he shouldn’t avoid it, but with
Brook Lopez expecting good service, and a lot of players who need someone to
create shots for them, Lin might have an opportunity to put up some
impressive assist numbers, but that 20 points per game might be difficult to
reach with so many players depending on him to operate them.
然而林書豪跟上述7位球員截然不同, 那7位都是"自己出手優先"的球員, 雖然林書豪之前
被迫有過得自己優先出手, 但他還是會優先去讓他周遭的隊友變得更好.
顯然的, 如果對籃網來說讓林書豪當主砲手最好, 那林就不該去避免; 但當Brook Lopez
等著更好的供輸, 以及許多其他隊友嗷嗷待哺等著某人替他們創造更多出手機會時, 林書
豪或許將有機會把他的場均助攻數據推上高峰, 那麼場均20分就將會很難去達成, 畢竟那
麼多隊友都依賴林去替他們創造機會
So is 18 points and 8 assists per game a solid expectation from him next
season? Only three players last season averaged better than 18-8 last season:
Chris Paul, John Wall and Westbrook. But totals and even averages can be
misleading. SO maybe dial down the expectations? To 16 points, 7 assists per
game? Maybe, although we still don’t know the rotation minutes Atkinson is
going to be using. Lin’s biggest season in terms of minutes was in
2012-2013, averaging 32.2 a night with the Rockets, 2640 in total. Assuming
there are no injuries, he should expect around 2800 minutes at least. Point
guards, players who are the basis of everything their team does, play these
kind of minutes, and from the looks of the team the Nets built for this year,
Lin is going to be hard to keep off the floor.
好的, 那18分8助攻對林書豪下季的表現來說, 是個過苛的期待嗎? 上季只有三位球員場
均高於18分8助攻: Chris Paul, John Wall跟西河, 那下調一些到16分7助攻??
一切都還無法確定, 因為Atkinson要怎樣調度陣容各自的上場時間還不知道; 林場均上場
最多的是2012-13球季, 那時在火箭的他場均打32.2分鐘, 該季共打了2640分鐘; 所以一
切健康順利的話, 新球季林應該至少能打2800分鐘, 這是一般球隊裡先發控衛會有的上場
時間, 所以如果再考慮到籃網新球季對林書豪的厚望.......豪期待啊啊!!!