http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/five-questions-miami-marlins/
by Nick Fleder
March 06, 2012
How will the free agent digs fare in the coming years?
挖來的FA在未來的幾年會表現如何？
Heath Bell signed a three-year, $27 million deal with a fourth year vesting
option
Heath Bell： 27M/ 3Y，成績達標的話將自動執行 2015 年的 9M 選擇權
Bell is projected by THT’s Oliver forecast to be a 1.4 WAR player, with fine
ratio stats of 3.38 and 1.23 in ERA and WHIP, respectively. Bell’s a risky
property, however, as he saw his K/9 rate go down considerably in 2011 (more
than a 2.0 K/9 drop from career to 2011) and his WAR plummeted as a result. He
was worth $2.3 million last year per Fangraphs, and has been worth upwards of
$9.0 million only twice in his career.
硬球時報的 Oliver 預測 Heath Bell 會有 1.4 的 WAR，ERA 3.38，WHIP 1.23
這是個冒險的投資，畢竟他在 2011 年的 K9 比生涯平均低 2 個，WAR 也因此直線下滑
Fangraphs 顯示他去年價值是 2.3M，而他生涯僅有2季的價值超過 9M
Mark Buehrle signed a four-year, $58 million deal
Mark Buehrle： 58M / 4Y
Oliver doesn’t love Buehrle, projecting him to put up 2.8 WAR and an ERA above
four, likely due to the 20-hit bump projected to occur in 2012. Buehrle is a
model of consistency, though, putting up between 3.4 and 4.6 WAR in the last
five years, including two years of 3.4 and two years of 3.7. Those four seasons
have been worth between $15 and $15.5 million, so Buehrle will have to fare
similarly for his contract to be a boon. Unfortunately, Oliver projects him to
slip below 2.0 WAR in his final Miami year.
Oliver 不甲意 Buehrle，只給他 2.8 的 WAR 和高於 4 的 ERA
大概是因為他也預估 Buehrle 在 2012 年會被多打 20 支安打
Buehrle 是穩定教科書，近 5 年的 WAR 都在 3.4 ~ 4.6 之間遊走，2度 3.4、2度 3.7
這 4 個球季他的價值大概是 15 ~ 15.5M，所以他應該可以讓這成為一個好約
可惜 Oliver 預估他在邁阿密的最後一年 WAR 會低於 2
Jose Reyes signed a six-year, $102 million deal
Jose Reyes： 102M / 6Y
Reyes’ health is a glaring, larger-than-life question mark, and he’s had
mixed results because of nagging injuries and slow recoveries. See his WAR for
the last four years, the results of which are comparable to dartboard throws:
5.8, 0.8, 3.1, and 6.0. Enigmatic would be the word if he weren’t so darned
talented. But the Marlins expected to pay for production rather than raw
talent, and Oliver isn’t cheery about the prospects of the deal long term. The
elephant in the room, as noted, is that the guy’s been on the field for 98
games, on average, over the last three years. Oliver projects 500-plus at-bats
throughout the life of the contract—how could the system account for injury,
after all—but a range of 3.2 WAR-2.3 WAR. I wouldn’t expect so much
consistency, but rather the sporadic Reyes ways we’ve come to know.
Jose Reyes 的健康比什麼都還重要，他曾被一些傷和漫長的復健所困擾
5.8、0.8、3.1、6.0，近四年他的 WAR 就像在玩射飛鏢一樣
除非他真有那該死的天份，不然這就只能用「霧裡看花」來形容了
但馬林魚希望買到的是實際產出，而非純天分
Oliver 也不看好這個長約，就像房裡的大象一樣，他近 3 年平均只出賽 98 場
Oliver 預估他在這份合約能平均有 500+ 的 AB、3.2 ~ 2.3的 WAR
我不覺得他能這麼穩定，反而比較有機會像之前那樣「偶爾來 Reyes 一下」
What are the ideal lineup configurations?
先發打線怎麼排？
The ideal lineup might look differently than the projected one. Assuming Reyes
to hit first, Emilio Bonifacio to hit behind him, and the three-four-five punch
of Hanley Ramirez, Mike Stanton and Logan Morrison to drive in the speedsters,
you’d have a top five that mixes speed, power and superior on-base skills, or
an assortment of those traits. RotoChamp does think that the lineup will look
as such in the top half, followed by Gaby Sanchez, John Buck, Omar Infante and
the pitcher, but perhaps there’s a better makeup.
理想的先發打線不會和預測的一樣。
如果讓 Reyes 開路，Bonifacio 緊隨，Hanley、Stanton、LoMo 負責三四五棒
就可以得到一個兼具速度、力量、上壘的五連星
RotoChamp 預測，這個後有 Gaby Sanchez、John Buck、Infante、投手的打線
將會有前段的成績
不過他們恐怕有更好的組合方式
RHP LHP
1 Ramirez Ramirez
2 Coghlan Reyes
3 Sanchez Morrison
4 Stanton Stanton
5 Morrison Sanchez
6 Reyes Bonifacio
7 Infante Buck
8 Buck Infante
This is on the basis of lineup optimization findings by Tom Tango, eloquently
stated by “PGP” on a 2011 DRaysBay blog post:
這是根據 Tom Tango 所研究出的最佳化打線而來
“In a nutshell, Tango's analysis suggests that the first two slots should go
to good OBP hitters (who are also good quality overall), the fourth and fifth
are the next most important and should go to good power hitters, and the 3-hole
should go to a home-run hitter who might not necessarily have the best OBP.
From then on, descending order of hitter quality is a good idea. The general
order of hitter quality according to this is something like 1, 2, 4, 5, 3, 6,
7, 8, 9 although obviously there is differing emphasis at different lineup
spots.”
簡單講，Tango 的研究建議前兩棒最好是高上壘率的球員（甚至整體評價都好的）
四五兩棒最重要，所以應該擺上長打者；
三番是全壘打製造機，但不一定需要最好的上壘率
按照球員的能力從前面往下排棒次是個不錯的主意
依據 Tango 的研究，最理想的順序大概是長這樣：1, 2, 4, 5, 3, 6, 7, 8, 9
即使每一個棒次強調的特性都不太一樣
Essentially, this lineup revitalization would take away every-day duties from
Bonifacio, who is incredibly inept against righties when compared to Chris
Coghlan, who gets on base at a 36 percent clip against right-handed pitchers in
his career (roughly 4 percent more than Bonifacio does). Coghlan’s wRC+
against RHP is 39 points higher than Bonifacio’s, and his career OPS against
righties is over 150 points higher. Sure, this rides heavily on Coghlan’s
health, ability, and success in gaining the trust of new manager Ozzie Gullen.
And furthermore, Bonifacio plays a better center field than Coghlan; but a
time-share could be a worthy exploration, as the former’s .360 OBP in 2011 was
largely smoke and mirrors.
照理說，他們不應該讓 Bonifacio 可以天天先發的，他打右投手的能力差 Coghlan 太多了
Coghlan 打右投的上壘率比 Bonifacio 還要高 4%
wRC+ 高39
OPS 高 0.150
當然，這都要端看 Coghlan 是否健康、表現如何、得不得 Ozzie 疼
目前 Bonifacio 在中外野的表現比較好
但他們的上場時間會怎麼分配值得觀察，畢竟他2011年的 .360 上壘率看起來太假了
The lineup changes would also drop Jose Reyes from the leadoff spot…
permanently. “What?” you scream. I know, I know. Let me explain myself.
Reyes, despite an on-base percentage of .384, was playing far above his talent
level. His career on-base percentage is a relatively average .341, and his walk
rate is low at 6.9 percent. Sure, he makes contact, and sure, he beats out a
lot of infield hits and bunts, but perhaps his speed should be used elsewhere
while the true leadoff hitter regains his rightful throne.
不管怎麼排，Jose Reyes 都不會被放在第一棒......
「蝦毀！？」我知道你一定會這樣大叫，現在就來解釋給你聽吧
去年的上壘率高達 .384，遠高於他的天分水平，生涯平均是.341
而且他的保送率低到只有 6.9%
沒錯，他 contact 很好並能打出很多內野安打
但正牌的一棒在重回他的寶座之後，Reyes 的腳程應該可以用在其他地方
Hanley Ramirez has a career .380 OBP, though you may find that easy to forget
after a .333 showing during last year’s disaster. Ramirez has a career triple
slash in the leadoff spot of .309/.385/.536, and his slugging percentage is
particularly noteworthy as it’s .55 points higher in the leadoff spot than in
the three-hole, his other home. Unless you believe Reyes was at his true,
sustainable talent level last year (not to be confused with his peak), and that
Hanley is truly a different player today than he was in the past, the move
makes sense when you consider Reyes’ .294/.344/.447 triple-slash in the
leadoff spot.
Hanley Ramirez 生涯的上壘率是 .380，看到這你很容易就會忘記去年的災難
他在打第一棒的三圍是驚人的 .309/.385/.536
特別值得一提的是，這個長打率還比他打三棒的時候還要高 .055
除非你相信去年 Reyes 的表現才是他該有的 level （而非生涯年）
同時你也相信 Hanley 真的完全變成另一個球員
這樣子的話，把生涯 .294/.344/.447 的Reyes 推到第一棒或許是個不錯的點子
（待續）