Orioles Defying the Odds
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/orioles-defying-the-odds/
by Jeff Zimmerman - September 11, 2012
Over this past weekend, the Orioles split a 4 game series with the New York
Yankees. Baltimore was able win 2 games and stay only 1 game behind the
Yankess in the AL East standings, even though they were outscored 31 to 23.
This trend of winning while being outscored is not uncommon for the Orioles
this season.
上周金鶯跟洋基展開四連戰。金鶯贏了兩場 目前只落後美東龍頭洋基一場勝差
雖然這系列賽洋基得了31分 金鶯則是23分
這贏球的趨勢其實對於今年的金鶯來說是很正常的
The most remarkable part about the Orioles keeping pace with the elite teams
in the AL is that they have done it with a negative run differential, (608
Runs scored vice 637 Runs Allowed). It may seem that it would not be too
uncommon for a team to be a few wins over .500 and have a allowed a few more
runs then they have scored, but it isn’t. Only the San Francisco Giants
achieved the feat in 2011 (86-76, -17 runs) and no teams in 2010. Since 1962,
when both leagues went to 162 games, 54 teams have been able to reach this
feat, or just about 1 per season. The average run differential for the teams
was -18.6 runs and the average number of games over .500 was 6.8 games.
金鶯這季與其他美聯菁英球隊並駕齊驅
而且最讓人意外的是他們是負得失分(得分608,失分637)
當一個球隊勝率超過5成 有負得失分的狀況是不尋常的
在2011年只有巨人(86-76 -17分) 2010年則沒有
自從1962年開始(兩聯盟都是打162場) 總共有54隊達成此項壯舉
平均得失分是-18.6分 勝率超過5成的勝敗場差則是6.8場
Baltimore is doing more than defying the Lords of Math, they have a chance of
having the best record ever for a team with a negative run differential. Of
the 54 teams with a negative run differential, only 11 have been 10 games or
more over .500.
金鶯這季的表現是在違背數學之神(XDDDDD) 他們極有可能成為最佳負得失分的球隊
在上述54隊中 只有11隊有贏超過10場
Team Season W L Diff RS RA Diff
Arizona Diamondbacks 2007 90 72 18 712 732 -20
San Francisco Giants 1997 90 72 18 784 793 -9
New York Mets 1984 90 72 18 652 676 -24
Baltimore Orioles 2012 78 62 16 608 637 -29
Seattle Mariners 2007 88 74 14 794 813 -19
Baltimore Orioles 1981 59 46 13 429 437 -8
San Francisco Giants 1982 87 75 12 673 687 -14
Houston Astros 2008 86 75 11 712 743 -31
Boston Red Sox 2006 86 76 10 820 825 -5
San Francisco Giants 2011 86 76 10 570 578 -8
New York Mets 1972 83 73 10 528 578 -50
Houston Astros 1989 86 76 10 647 669 -22
The best a team has ever done in the W-L column was 18 games over .500 (3
times). The key for those teams wasn’t their great record in close games.
All teams that are 18 games over .500 have to perform decently in 1-run games
to have that good of a record. The difference for the 3 teams is how they do
in blowouts. Here is a graph with the percentage of times the teams had a
certain point difference.
在負得失分的情況下 最佳情況是贏超過18場 這一共有出現3次
這些隊伍在一分差的比賽有相當好的紀錄 差別在於這3對在大爆炸的情況
以下用圖表來表示
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/wp-content/uploads/2012/09/Orioles.jpg
Normally teams that are 18 games over .500 are blown out 5% of the time and
blow teams out 7% of the time. The 3 teams instead get blown out 9% of the
time and win in blowouts in 5% of their games.
一般球隊在5成勝率之上 且勝敗場差18場的情況下
大概有5%的球賽會被對方轟炸 而自己轟炸對方機率是7%
而上述這3隊(負得失分且勝敗場超過18場的)
有9%的球賽被對方轟炸 只有5%的時間是霸凌別人
The Orioles have two distinction from the distribution. First, they have
rarely lose by 1 runs (5%). They have lost by 2, 3, 4 and 5 runs more than
they have be one run. Also, Baltimore has won by 2 runs more than average.
今年金鶯有兩個走向
1. 他們幾乎不輸1分差比賽(5%)
2. 他們輸2,3,4,5分甚至之上的比賽 比1分還多
對了他們贏兩分差的比賽也是高於平均
Not one root cause exists for the discrepancy between the wins and runs the
Orioles are seeing, but several different causes add up. The main way a team
can have some control over their difference in runs scored and allowed is how
their pitching staff performs in certain instances. Teams can just give up in
blowouts and let them get those games get out of hand. On the other hand,
they can then make sure they stay in every close game with a good bullpen.
基本上球隊在爆炸的情況下就放棄了 另一方面依靠著好的牛棚把比分接近的比賽維持住
The Orioles’ starters are 9th in the A.L. with an ERA of 4.58 ERA and 10th
in QS. The starters have had a problem of keeping the game close and getting
to the bullpen. Once the bullpen takes over, they have been lights out. In
the AL, they are 1st in WPA and shutdowns and 4th with a team 3.07 ERA. For
example, the Orioles have correctly leveraged Jim Johnson, their closer, in
close games and he has performed great. He has the league’s highest WPA
among relievers.
今年金鶯的先發成績: ERA:4.58 排美聯第9 QS則排第10
先發投手群無法有效將比分控制在接近的狀態 但是當牛棚上來一切都不一樣了
在美聯 金鶯牛棚在WPA及關門(上來不失分) ERA則是3.07(排第4)
金鶯守護神J.Johnson有全聯盟後援投手中最高的WPA
Another way the Orioles have been able to win close games is because of their
performance in extra inning games. They are 12-2 and have scored 25 runs and
only allowed 5.
另一個金鶯能贏接近比賽的原因是他們在延長賽的極佳表現
12勝2敗 得25分 僅僅失5分
The Orioles have been defying the odds by being 16 games over .500 with
negative run differential. They kept up the trend this weekend with their
series with the Yankees. While it has been a unique way to get a winning
record, it has worked for them this season.
金鶯正在對抗前輩的紀錄(目前勝敗場差16場,5成勝率以上且為負得失分)
這已經成為他們今年賽季獨特的取勝紀錄