O's Sweep Rays, Jake McGee Sweeps O's
http://ppt.cc/nuRz
by Jeff Sullivan - September 14, 2012
Rays reliever Jake McGee has, at this writing, struck out seven consecutive
batters. McGee has not, as I was led to believe by a certain other
distinguished FanGraphs author, struck out nine consecutive batters. This
fact was uncovered embarrassingly late in the research and
article-development process. A streak of seven is less impressive and less
unlikely than a streak of nine. But a streak of seven is still impressive,
and still unlikely, and of course, McGee’s streak of seven is still alive,
pending the next plate appearance. So McGee’s streak is still worth writing
about. Consider for reference that Aaron Cook registered seven strikeouts
through his first ten starts, spanning 237 batters. McGee has done that
against 230 fewer batters.
在我寫這篇文章的時候 光芒的南面爪Jake McGee已經連續三振7位打者
是的 他不是連續三振9位打者。但連續三振7位一樣是讓人印象深刻
他連續三振紀錄還是持續著(按:已經在9/15破功 最後只連續三振7人次)
Tampa Bay has a critical series coming up against New York, but they’re
coming off a critical series against Baltimore, a critical series in which
they got swept. Their Cool Standings playoff odds dropped from about 61
percent to about 27 percent, as the Rays went from looking like favorites to
looking like underdogs. They’re left now to lick their wounds and try to
bounce back against the Yankees, but one Ray who has nothing to feel bad
about is McGee, who did the best against the Orioles that he possibly could
have.
光芒接下來有對洋基的硬仗 但前一個系列也很硬而且他們被金鶯橫掃
光芒進入季後賽的機率從61%掉到27% 他們試著要在與洋基對戰中反彈
但他們對McGee感覺非常好
(按:光芒對洋基已經以1-2 輸掉系列賽)
In fairness, McGee didn’t pitch in the first game of the three-game series,
which the Rays lost 9-2. He pitched in the second and again in the third,
facing four batters in the former and three batters in the latter. A log of
those plate appearances:
McGee在與金鶯系列賽中 僅在第2戰及第3戰出賽 分別面對4位及3位打者
以下是打擊表現:
Wilson Betemit strikes out swinging
Mark Reynolds strikes out swinging
Chris Davis strikes out looking
Manny Machado strikes out swinging
Lew Ford strikes out swinging
Adam Jones strikes out swinging
Chris Davis strikes out looking
(全部三振 包含5位揮棒落空 2位拿香振)
I suppose, if McGee had truly been perfect, he would’ve racked up these
seven strikeouts on 21 pitches, instead of 34 pitches. He threw 13 pitches
more than were necessary, but now we’re stretching the definition of “
perfect”. Actually, no, that isn’t true, perfection is perfection and true
perfection is essentially unachievable. But we’re stretching our standards
of perfection as we try to apply it to baseball. McGee faced seven guys and
they all struck out. Perfect.
如果McGee真的完美 他應該用21球就拿下7次三振 而不是34球
恩... 完美是完美 但基本上是不可能達到的
那重新調整標準 他面對7位打者 然後三振7位 真是完美
One of those guys was Mark Reynolds, sure. One of those guys, twice, was
Chris Davis. McGee didn’t plow through a bunch of Marco Scutaros, but if you
’re interested in very simple math, let’s take McGee’s 2012 strikeout rate
— 34.8 percent — as an accurate measure of his strikeout probability. The
odds of seven consecutive strikeouts, then, would be about six-hundredths of
one percent. Once per 1,618 trials, basically.
The all-time record for consecutive strikeouts, as far as I can tell, is ten.
Tom Seaver did it in one game, and Eric Gagne did it over a few games. McGee
still has a chance to get there, since his streak is active, although his
odds of three more consecutive strikeouts are about four percent or so. He
doesn’t even yet have the Rays’ franchise record, since Joaquin Benoit
struck out nine consecutive batters in May 2010. Benoit’s streak ended when
he walked Kevin Youkilis on four pitches. Now that’s a fact you know.
連續三振的紀錄是Tom Seaver的10位(同場球賽) 然後Eric Gagne是在幾場球賽內
McGee還有機會可以挑戰
他也還沒破光芒的隊史紀錄 Joaquin Benoit在2010年5月的連續三振9人次
Benoit的紀錄終止於連續4顆球保送Kevin Youkilis
So how did McGee manage to do what he did against the Orioles? Fastballs.
McGee threw 34 pitches, and one of those pitches was a non-fastball. It was a
slider, and it is embedded below:
所以McGee是怎麼做到連續三振的? 「速球」
他投了34球 只有一球不是速球(而是滑球)
看看下面
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/wp-content/uploads/2012/09/McGeeSL.gif.opt_.gif
Nothing particularly remarkable about that slider, although it did serve its
purpose. Everything else was heat, and McGee didn’t even have to rely on
Jose Molina‘s pitch-framing. Here’s the one borderline strike McGee was
given in Baltimore:
這顆滑球沒甚麼特別的地方
但其他球都是火球 而且McGee並沒有靠Jose Molina的接球技巧
下面是其中一顆他投在邊邊角角的速球
http://ppt.cc/SWun
Certainly not egregious, and Davis didn’t even complain. McGee wasn’t
getting calls in his favor; he was getting swings in his favor. We will now
watch all seven strikeout pitches, by which I mean all seven strikeout
fastballs, just for fun, because it’s Friday, and Friday should be fun.
完全不過份 而且Davis也沒抗議
McGee三振不是靠打者站著不動 相反的是讓他們揮棒落空
我們接著看連續7次三振秀 全部速球 只是好玩
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/wp-content/uploads/2012/09/McGee1.gif.opt_.gif
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/wp-content/uploads/2012/09/McGee2.gif.opt_.gif
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/wp-content/uploads/2012/09/McGee3.gif.opt_.gif
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/wp-content/uploads/2012/09/McGee4.gif.opt_.gif
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/wp-content/uploads/2012/09/McGee5.gif.opt_.gif
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/wp-content/uploads/2012/09/McGee6.gif.opt_.gif
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/wp-content/uploads/2012/09/McGee7.gif.opt_.gif
You’ll note that McGee is left-handed, and that five of those hitters were
right-handed. It’s rare for an opposite-handed pitcher to be able to
dominate hitters just with his heat, but McGee made it work, and he’s been
making it work all season long.
McGee是左投 其中5位打者是右打
很難見到左(右)投對上右(左)打是用火球強力壓制的
但McGee做到了 事實上他一整季都是如此
Of McGee’s 34 pitches, 25 were strikes. Interestingly, he generated only
seven whiffs. In his first outing, he generated three whiffs, all on the
final pitches of the at-bats. In his second outing, he got rid of Lew Ford
with his fourth whiff, and then he picked up three whiffs from Adam Jones.
Chris Davis struck out twice against McGee, but he didn’t whiff once.
他投的34球中有25球是好球 有趣的是他的投球中打者總共只有七次揮空
在他面對金鶯的第一場 有三次揮空 全部都是該打席的最後一球
第二次出賽 Lew Ford揮空一次 Adam Jones揮空三次
Chris Davis則是站著被三振
Among relievers with at least 40 innings on the season, McGee’s got the
eighth-highest strikeout rate. He’s got the 37th-lowest contact rate, which
is good, but not as good. McGee’s thing is that he’s a strike-thrower now.
He’s thrown strikes with about 69 percent of his pitches, so he’s
constantly ahead, so he’s constantly in strikeout situations. When you’re
pitching ahead, you don’t need as many swings and misses to rack up the
strikeouts.
這季至少投40局的所有投手中 McGee有第8高的三振率 在打者擊球率上他是第37低
他的投球中有69%是好球 他幾乎不落後球數 所以常面臨三振局面
當你常常球數領先 就不必製造很多揮空來增加三振
Clearly, McGee has taken to his bullpen role and flourished. At present, he’
s chasing history. Even if he falls short, he’ll still be one hell of a
reliever. Wade Davis, too, in case you were unaware of how that’s been
going. Before the 2008 season, Baseball America ranked McGee baseball’s #15
prospect, and Davis baseball’s #17 prospect. They were back-to-back in a
stacked Rays system, and they looked like promising future starters. They’ve
turned into promising present and future relievers, and McGee in particular
has put up numbers that are just off most of the charts. By throwing
fastballs almost exclusively. The best relievers can make relieving look so
damned simple.
明顯的McGee在牛棚的角色越來越重要 現在他正在締造歷史的的道路上
假設他失敗 他還是牛棚的要角 就像Wade Davis一樣
2008年BA百大新秀排名McGee是第15名 而Davis是17名
當時他們一前一後排名在人才濟濟的光芒農場前方 而且像是充滿希望的先發
現在他們都轉變成為牛棚要員 McGee成績尤其耀眼
好的牛 就讓後援看起來是XXX的容易阿
2008 百大新秀前20名
(1.Jay Bruce, 2.Evan Longoria, 3.Joba Chamberlain, 4.Clay Buchholz,
5.Colby Rasmus, 6.Camron Maybin, 7.Clayton Kershaw, 8.Franklin Morales,
9.Homer Bailey, 10.David Price, 11.Travis Snider, 12.Matt Wieters,
13.Jacoby Ellsbury, 14.Andrew McCutchen, 15.Jake McGee, 16.Brandon Wood,
17.Wade Davis, 18.Mike Moustakas, 19.Elvis Andrus, 20.Fernando Martinez )
紅人*2
光芒*4
洋基*1
紅襪*2
紅雀*1
馬林魚*1
道奇*1
落磯*1
藍鳥*1
金鶯*1
海盜*1
天使*1
皇家*1
遊騎兵*1
大都會*1