R.A. Dickey and the Myth of One Great Year
by Dave Cameron - December 11, 2012
http://ppt.cc/_~nT
Like many others, I’ve expressed some bewilderment on Twitter about how the
Mets are handling their negotiations with R.A. Dickey. Dickey was one of the
game’s best players in 2012, and the Mets were reportedly offering him the
same kind of contract Joe Blanton just signed for, and have now improved
their offer to make it equal to what Jeremy Guthrie just signed for. There’s
a discount involved with signing an extension a year out from free agency,
but the discount has to be reasonable, and these offers don’t strike me as
overly reasonable. They don’t strike Dickey as overly reasonable either.
However, there’s a common retort from some folks whenever it is suggested
that the Mets pay Dickey like a top-shelf starter. “It was just one year.”
Here, see for yourself.
Boston Red Sox Buzz 4 Dec 12
Over the Monster >> Daily Red Sox Links: Mike Napoli, R.A. Dickey, Jonny
Gomes http://t.co/pOEoM8hW
Greg Boucher
@redsoxbuzztap please stay away frm RA Dickey. He's a one year wonder not
worth the asking price!
Jordon
Though, I don’t think it is true. Bluejays do not trade J.P for R.A Dickey.
One good year! Plus he's 37.
DodgersBeat
Not for a 38 yr old w/one good year RT @NYDNHarper Source says Mets could get
speedy Dee Gordon & top pitching prospect Zach Lee for Dickey.
Dustin Funk
I really hope @BlueJays don't overpay for a guy that was good for one year
(Dickey)
Apparently, there’s this idea that pre-2012 R.A. Dickey was a worthless
nothing, and after his fluke season, he’s headed right back to being a trick
pitch sideshow. That idea is just hilariously wrong.
61 pitchers threw at least 350 innings between 2010 and 2011. During those
two years, Dickey posted an ERA- of 81, meaning that he prevented runs at a
rate 19 percent better than the league average. We’re using ERA- for Dickey
because knuckleballers have a long exhibited history of being an exception to
FIP, by the way. That put him squarely between Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum,
and ahead of guys like Hiroki Kuroda, Dan Haren, Chris Carpenter, and Mat
Latos. Not bad company.
在2010到2011只有61個投手投到至少350局 Dickey的ERA-是81
大概是跟Cain跟Lincecum同級 然後在黑田,哈倫,木匠,Latos前面
However, most of those guys had been a little more consistent than Dickey,
and had a track record of excellent pitching prior to 2010. His success is a
little newer, so if we’re going to look at a comp for Dickey, we need to
find a guy who really established himself for the first time in 2010.
Thankfully, there’s a highly touted ace who has performed at nearly the
exact same level as Dickey in each of the last three years, and his track
record in terms of run prevention is a dead on match for Dickey; that guy is
named David Price.
然而以上的投手都比Dickey穩定
我要找個在2010年開始證明自己的投手而且跟Dickey近三年表現差不多的
他是David Price
It might sound like heresy, but take a look at their last three seasons side
by side.
這可能聽起來像是胡說 但我們來看看這三年的成績
Season Name IP K/BB HR/9 BABIP LOB% ERA- FIP- xFIP-
2010 Price 208 2.38 0.65 0.270 79% 69 86 92
2010 Dickey 174 2.48 0.67 0.276 77% 73 94 94
2011 Price 224 3.46 0.88 0.281 73% 90 86 82
2011 Dickey 208 2.48 0.78 0.278 75% 89 101 103
2012 Price 211 3.47 0.68 0.285 81% 66 77 75
2012 Dickey 233 4.26 0.92 0.275 80% 72 87 84
They got there different ways, but it’s hard to tell 2010 Dickey from 2010
Price. Their K/BB, HR/9, BABIP, and LOB% are all basically the same, and not
surprisingly, they both were among the league leaders in run prevention;
Price ranked #7 in MLB in ERA-, Dickey was #10.
兩位投手的K/BB HR/9 BABIP LOB%相當接近
In 2011, both went backwards in terms of results, as they both gave up more
hits and home runs which led to lower strand rates, and again, they basically
posted the same ERA-, though this time, it represented good results rather
than great ones. Price’s problems stranding runners masked his breakout,
though, as he drastically cut his walk rate and improved his overall profile.
Dickey kept doing his thing, looking like basically the same pitcher as
before, just with fewer stranded runners.
Then, last year, both Dickey and Price put it all together. They were again
among the league’s best at preventing runs, but both did it with
dramatically better peripherals than in 2010. Rather than just having
ace-like results, both pitched liked aces, and were honored with Cy Young
Awards for completing their first season as a legitimate #1 starter.
Because Price is a former #1 pick who throws 95 MPH, there’s no skepticism
about his track record. No one ever refers to David Price as a one year
wonder. But yet, when you actually look at his performance over the last
three years, it’s hard to make a case that he’s been any different than
Dickey. Over the total of his last three seasons, Price has an ERA- of 75,
while Dickey has an ERA- of 78. The full list of pitchers with an ERA-
between 75 and 80 over the last three years: David Price, Cole Hamels, CC
Sabathia, Felix Hernandez, Gio Gonzalez, Matt Cain, and R.A. Dickey. That’s
his group of peers, not based on one great year, but on three excellent
seasons where Dickey has been one of the game’s best starters.
近三年Price的ERA-是75 Dickey則是78
其他在75至80的大投手是:Price,Hamels,Sabathia,King,Gio,Cain跟Dickey
這是三年成績而不是單一年度
Yes, he was better last year than he had been in prior years. So was David
Price. If you’re going to call one of them a one year wonder, you have to
call them both a fluke. Personally, I’ll just go the other direction, and
call both of them elite starting pitchers, worthy of all the adulation you
want to throw their way. And, in Dickey’s case, worth the contract he’s
asking for. Just stop lowballing him and pay the man. He’s earned it.
心得: 好蝴蝶 不簽嗎?