作者:
JakeMcGee (Jake McGee)
2013-05-14 17:03:25Cubs Get A Steal With Anthony Rizzo Again
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/cubs-get-a-steal-with-anthony-rizzo-again/
by Dave Cameron - May 13, 2013
A little over a year ago, Jed Hoyer acquired Anthony Rizzo for the third
time; he was an Assistant GM with Boston when the Red Sox drafted Rizzo in
2007, he was the Padres GM when they acquired Rizzo from the Red Sox in the
Adrian Gonzalez deal in 2010, and then he was the GM of the Cubs when they
acquired him from San Diego for Andrew Cashner in 2012. In all three cases,
it looks like Hoyer came out on the winning end of the deal, as Rizzo was
clearly worth a sixth round pick, is more valuable than Gonzalez by himself
at this point, and is certainly a bigger building block for the Cubs future
than Cashner would be.
The well traveled youngster can go buy a house now, though, as his days of
getting shipped from one city to the next are likely over. Ken Rosenthal
first reported that the Cubs signed Rizzo to a seven year, $41 million
contract extension that includes a pair of team options, ensuring that
Chicago will own his rights through his age-29 season and could retain him
through his age-31 season if both options are picked up. And with that deal,
it looks like Hoyer and the rest of the Cubs front office is likely to once
again come out on the winning end of a deal involving Anthony Rizzo.
Because Rizzo was called up on June 26th of last year — by a complete
coincidence I’m sure — he fell four days short of achieving one full year
of service time. So, while Rizzo had played almost an entire Major League
season, the Cubs still owned his rights for six seasons, including the 2013
season currently underway. By giving him seven guaranteed years and getting
two team options, the Cubs bought out four arbitration years and three free
agent years for the total price of $68 to $73 million (depending on which
incentives he hits) if both options are exercised.
The key there is four arbitration years. The Cubs kept Rizzo in the minors
long enough to delay his free agency by a year, but he was a lock to qualify
as a Super-Two player after the 2014 season, which meant he would have gone
through arbitration a year earlier than most. Because the arbitration system
is based on giving escalating raises, the extra trip through arbitration not
only would have raised Rizzo’s salary in 2015, it would have also pushed up
all of his future arbitration earnings. And that’s why this Rizzo deal looks
like a potential steal for the Cubs, especially when compared to the other
long term deals that have been signed recently.
The obvious comparisons are the recently completed deals for fellow first
baseman Paul Goldschmidt (5/32 with one option, but doesn’t start until
2014) and Allen Craig (5/31 with one option), but there are some real
differences here.
Craig, for instance, had already accrued two years of service time, so he was
only four years from free agency, and at 28-years-old, the Cardinals already
controlled his rights through his age-31 season. The extension bought out one
league minimum season, three arbitration years, and then gave them control
over his age-32 free agent season and the rights to his age-33 free agent
season as well. Even with three trips through arbitration and two free agent
years, Craig wasn’t likely to earn drastically more than the $31 million he
got from St. Louis in that contract; the Cardinals probably saved something
like $10 to $15 million if everything works out, and they took on some extra
risk in order to get those savings.
Goldschmidt was also a 1+ service time guy, as Rizzo is, but he was not going
to qualify for Super Two status, meaning that the Diamondbacks only bought
out three arbitration years rather than four, and while they also guaranteed
one free agent year, they got team option, while the Cubs got two with Rizzo.
Essentially, for an extra $10 million guaranteed, the Cubs bought out one
more arbitration season, all the subsequent raises that come from being
arbitration eligible four times, and got an extra team option for their
trouble. That’s not a bad days work, especially considering that of the
three first baseman we’re talking about, Rizzo likely has the brightest
future. From our depth charts, the ZIPS/Steamer hybrid forecasts for their
rest-of-season 2013 performance:
Name Age PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA Bat BsR Fld WAR
A.Rizzo 23 513 0.277 0.346 0.510 0.366 16.8 (1.3) 2.6 2.7
P.Goldschmidt 25 509 0.272 0.357 0.492 0.364 14.0 0.3 (0.8) 2.2
A.Craig 28 381 0.290 0.342 0.484 0.355 11.5 (0.6) (1.0) 1.6
If you prorate all those numbers out to 600 plate appearances, Rizzo would be
forecast as a +3.2 WAR player, while Goldschmidt would come in at +2.6 and
Craig at +2.5. Rizzo is also the youngest of the three, and because of where
he is on the growth curve, he’s got the farthest room to grow as well. Rizzo
’s power is carrying him at the moment, making up for the fact that he’s a
bit too aggressive at the plate, but discipline develops with experience, and
Rizzo should be able to add more walks to his profile before his power begins
to decline. In his prime, Rizzo should develop into a +4 to +5 win first
baseman. In terms of overall value, he projects to be not that different from
what Prince Fielder is right now, with his better defense making up for the
lower walk rate.
Goldschmidt and Craig are good players, but they’re closer to their ceiling
than Rizzo is, and he’s already better than both of them. This isn’t meant
to denigrate Goldschmidt or Craig, but neither one comes with his upside.
Rizzo is the potential superstar of the trio, and had the Cubs not locked him
up, he was probably headed for a monster paycheck in several years. If he
develops as expected and stays healthy, he’ll still get one monster payday
before he tires, as he’ll be free agent eligible heading into his age-32
season even if the Cubs pick up both of his options, but Chicago did well to
make sure that they got his best years at a massive discount.
The Cubs certainly aren’t the first team to lock up a young star to a long
term deal, and overall, the prices for most of these deals make them win-wins
for everyone. Rizzo is now set for life financially and has safeguarded
himself against any future injury problems, and he’s still in line to make
plenty of money during his career. With the amount of cash flowing into MLB
right now, it makes sense for guys like Rizzo to take advantage and trade
some risk for long term security, especially with the declining marginal
value of additional dollars.
But, more than most, this deal looks pretty great for the Cubs. Rizzo is
exactly the kind of player who would have made a mountain of money by going
year-to-year, as Super-Two eligibility would have gotten him large
arbitration paydays and he has the skillset that is paid the most in free
agency. Had Rizzo not signed this deal, he may very well have been pushing
for $30 million per year in a long term deal as a free agent after the 2018
season. Instead, the Cubs will now own his first three free agent years for a
$13 million AAV. By 2019-2021, $13 million will probably be a below average
salary, and Rizzo is on a path to be a star at that point in his career.
There’s very little downside here for the Cubs. Rizzo basically just has to
stay healthy and not regress over the next few years, and at the minimum, the
Cubs will save some money in arbitration. If he turns into the franchise
first baseman that he looks like right now, the Cubs will be huge winners in
the final three years of this deal, potentially saving $50+ million in just
those last three years.
Getting Rizzo for Cashner was the real steal, but locking him up at this
price isn’t far behind. These are the kinds of moves that will help make the
Cubs a formidable foe in the NL Central for the foreseeable future.
=========
對照
Rizzo Goldschmidt Craig
2013 0.75M(23) 0.5M(25) 1.75M(28)
2014 1.25M(24) 1.1M(26) 2.75M(29)
2015 5M (25) 3.1M(27) 5.5M (30)
2016 5M (26) 5.875M(28) 9M (31)
2017 7M (27) 8.875M(29) 11M (32)
2018 7M (28) 11.1M(30) 13M+1M
2019 11M (29) 14.5M+2M FA (34)
2020 14.5M+2M FA (32)
2021 14.5M+2M FA
2022 FA (32)
明顯的Craig太晚上來了 簽完這份約要在近FA市場簽大約的機會很少了(已34歲)
Goldschmidt進FA才32歲 Rizzo也是 要有更大張的約機會不小
Rizzo有砲跟一點腿 防守不錯
Goldschmidt則是有砲跟腿(還有選球眼) 防守就普通
我記得Rizzo的ceiling是更高(有錯請指正XDD)
這兩人的合約很像 就靜待這兩人成為超級all-star了