重點整理:
1. 蝴蝶球在物理上其實不會漂移(左右)多少，"跳舞"的蝴蝶球也許是我們自己的想像
2. 根據Nathan教授的研究，蝴蝶球的位移與速度是負相關
意思是當你有快速的蝴蝶球，例如Dickey，你的控球也許越好
3. Dickey的蝴蝶球速在今年比往年掉了2Mph以上
而他的蝴蝶球揮空率仍然保持良好的數字，
但保送率卻是兩倍，意味蝴蝶球的失速對他的控球造成影響
4. Dickey滿身是傷，可能就是失速的主因
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/r-a-dickeys-lost-velocity/
失速的R.A. Dickey
Knuckleballers aren’t like other pitchers, or so the saying goes. Their
pitches flutter like butterflies, they pitch at less than max effort, they don
’t depend on velocity, and they can pitch into their fifties. All of these
things seem true, and yet the more we know about knuckleballers the more they
might actually be more like all the other pitchers out there. So when
38-year-old R.A. Dickey has lost some oomph on his seminal pitch, maybe it
means something, just like it usually does for other pitchers.
投蝴蝶球不同於其他球種，他們不用用盡全力丟，也不在乎速度，甚至可以丟到五十歲。
以上這些陳述看似真實，但當我們越了解蝴蝶球投手，
會發現他們和一般投手比我們想的更類似。
所以當38歲的Dickey在武器球上失去一些球速時，
也許就和其他投手一樣出問題了。
First, the fluttering. That might be an optical illusion. R.A. Dickey doesn’
t agree, but scientists and physicists that have studied the path of the
knuckleball agree with Professor Alan Nathan that it behaves ‘generally’
like other pitches. The unpredictability might still be wonderful, but it’s
physically impossible for the ball to break multiple inches in each
direction. The ‘dancing’ might be our minds trying to figure it out.
Next the max effort thing. Dickey said he throws at about 75% of the effort
he spent as a traditional pitcher. So that much may be true when it comes to
rest and recovery.
首先是漂移。
也許Dickey本人不同意，但研究蝴蝶球的物理學家Alan Nathan表示
蝴蝶球的路徑和其他球種其實大致上沒什麼差別。
球的漂移增加不確定性，這聽起來很棒
但蝴蝶球在物理上是不可能在左右上飄移多少的(可能只會往下掉)
看起來在"跳舞"的蝴蝶球也許是我們自己的想像。
But it takes effort to put velocity on the ball. And we’ve seen that Dickey’
s ‘fast’ knuckleball is probably the best one in his arsenal. The pitcher
himself told me in an interview last year that he’d been getting more swings
and misses from the fast knuckler. Professor Nathan found that velocity and
movement were negatively correlated for the knuckleball, and it seems that
Dickey’s elite control for a knuckleballer might have been at least
partially due to the velocity on his most important pitch.
再來是用盡全力。
Dickey說他自己大概只用75%的力氣在投球，所以手臂恢復比較快應該是真的。
但球速是依賴出力多寡的。
我們都知道Dickey是依賴他的快速蝴蝶球做為武器
他自己也跟我(作者)講丟快速蝴蝶球可以製造更多的揮棒落空。
Nathan教授表示蝴蝶球的球速與位移是負相關的*，(球速越快位移越少)
所以看來Dickey的最大武器，至少一部份，是來自他蝴蝶球的球速。
Now Dickey’s three-year run of above-average control is in jeopardy. As you
might have guessed, it’s not from a lack of movement. Professor Nathan
plotted the movement this year and last year and found little change. But
perhaps there is still something different about his knucklers this year. His
velocity is down two miles per hour on average.
現在Dickey的RAA陷入危機，
你大概猜到了，這不是因為球的位移變少了。
Nathan教授列出他這兩年球的位移，沒什麼差別，
但他的平均球速掉了2Mph。
*RAA:http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=RAA
Dickey throws a few knuckleballs, and the error bars on his velocity readings
are large. Let’s look at the distribution of his knuckleballs instead of a
straight average. Using three-mile-per-hour buckets, I plotted all of his
knuckleballs from four distinct periods below. The first is pre-breakout
Dickey. The second is 2010-2011 Dickey, who was great but not elite. Then you
have Cy Dickey and this year’s Dickey.
我們直接來看他歷年蝴蝶球的球速分佈
*圖表:
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/r-a-dickeys-lost-velocity/dickeyvelocity13c/
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/r-a-dickeys-lost-velocity/dickeyvelo13last/
Those purple bars might have a little too much in common with the blue bars
of Dickey’s darker days in baseball. They certainly don’t fit with his Cy
Young year, and in some ways, they don’t even look like the 2010-2011
version. In 2010-2011, 34% of the knuckleballs Dickey threw went faster than
78 mph. In 2012? 47%. And this year he’s been throwing those fast knucklers
16% of the time.
嗯嗯，看出一些差別了吧
看看12年賽楊年的球速，再看看今年的
Dickey’s still getting whiffs this year. His 9.9% whiff rate puts him in the
top 30 among qualified pitchers. But after three years spent walking less
than six percent of the batters he saw, his walk rate is in the double digits
this year. Maybe he has a little lost velocity to blame, since the pitch
should have the least movement and was his go-to pitch in hitter’s counts
last year. And, considering his back and neck problems this year, and his
abdominal and hip and plantar fasciitis issues last year, it may be fair to
ask if his body is robbing him of this velocity.
Dickey還是有很棒的揮空率，今年9.9%可以排在全聯盟前30。
但他以往的保送率是6%，今年卻暴增到兩倍。
也許這不能怪到失速，
因為去年在3壞球時球應該要有最少的位移。(因去年球速快，蝴蝶球位移少)
但在考量他的背傷及頸傷、腹部、髖關節和足底筋膜炎的問題
我們可以合理懷疑他的失速是因為他的健康問題。
Is that too conventional a question to ask of a knuckleballer?
何如?
對蝴蝶球投手夠不傳統的觀點吧?