Randal Grichuk: A rookie in need of recognition
by Randy Holt
The St. Louis Cardinals as an organization, as well as their fans, have an
overwhelmingly impressive penchant for claiming that they’re disrespected in
some form or fashion. Is that the case in reality? Of course not. In regard to
Randal Grichuk, however, we might have a case of some disrespect, at least to a
certain extent.
聖路易紅雀和他們的球迷常常主張他們沒受到應有的尊重.他們真的沒受到尊重嗎？當然有
受到尊重.但當我們談到Randal Grichuk,一定的程度上他的確沒受到應有的尊重.
Grichuk has logged some time at the big league level, including 47 games during
the regular season in 2014, but he still qualified as a rookie heading into
this 2015 campaign. He’s latched onto a spot in the outfield, thanks to a
multitude of injuries, and hasn’t looked back.
Grichuk已經在大聯盟出賽一段時間了,2014年出賽47場,但他仍然在2015保持菜鳥資格.因
為一連串的傷兵Grichuk抓住了外野的席位,然後就看不到他的車尾燈了.
On the season, Grichuk has gone for a slash line of .292/.341/.581/.922. He’s
been a well above average hitter through his first 273 plate appearances, as
indicated by his 152 wRC+. With 13 homers, 20 doubles, and seven triples, he’s
gone for a terrific .289 ISO. His strikeout rate has eclipsed 30%, but that
falls in line with many of the top rookies throughout the league.
Grichuk今年的打擊三圍是.292/.341/.581/.922.他的前273個PA告訴我們他是遠高於平均
的打者,有著152wRC+.13隻長球,20隻二壘安打,7隻三壘安打(聯盟no.2),Grichuk有著誇張
的ISO(.289).雖然他的被三振率高過30%,但這是很多頂級菜鳥會有的數據.
Grichuk has made linedrive contact at a solid 19.2% of the time, with a hard
hit ball percentage up over 37%. He hacks and misses at a lot of pitches, with
a SwStr% of 15.5 for the year, and you’d like to see more contact (probably an
understatement), given that he’s making contact at an overall rate of just 70%
thus far, but when he’s making contact, he’s making things happen. His
ability to hit the ball hard and maintain that solid LD% is helping him to
maintain that absurdly high .386 BABIP.
Grichuk的平飛球率是不錯的19.2%,強勁球的比率則提升到37%.他很容易揮空,有著15.5%的
SwStr%(揮空率),他只打到70%多點的球(你會希望看到他多製造contact),但當他打到球,他
能讓好事發生.他強勁的把球打出去的能力和製造平飛的能力使他有著神高的BAbip(.386).
Additionally, he’s been a very solid fielder for the Cards this season. He’s
made 39 Out of Zone plays and has posted six Defensive Runs Saved in logging
significant time at all three outfield spots. His overall UZR per 150 games is
at 6.2, with defensive metrics pointing to right field as his only negative
value in the field.
此外,Grichuk還是個不錯的防守者.他完成了39個防守區之內的守備,守下六分,這還是在三
個位子都守了蠻多時間下完成的.他的整體UZR/150是6.2,防守數據指出他只有在右外野的
防守價值是負的.
All of this culminates in a 3.0 WAR to this point, which has him third behind
Major League rookies, trailing only Matt Duffy and Kris Bryant. Though logging
time in about 20 less games than each of them, he trails Bryant by only one
home run and sports a higher wRC+ and a higher wOBA than both of the league’s
top rookies, according to WAR.
這些累積成3.0的WAR,這使他在聯盟菜鳥裡只落後Matt Duffy和Kris Bryant.雖然少打了二
十場,他只落後老大Bryant一隻全壘打,wRC+和wOBA也比兩個聯盟頂尖菜鳥高.
Now we don’t necessarily know how Matt Duffy projects long-term, but it’s
probably easy to declare that Kris Bryant will be a better player over the
course of their respective careers. Even so, Grichuk has managed to give each
of them a run for their money, as well as eclipsing Joc Pederson, also a
contender for the NL Rookie of the Year Award in WAR.
雖然我們不太知道Matt Duffy未來會長成什麼樣子,應該不難預測Kris Bryant會是這之中
發展比較好的人.就算如此,Grichuk會是競爭2015國聯最佳菜鳥的強力人選,使Joc
Pederson都黯然失色.
Of course, it’s important to note that he could be in line for a regression.
Even in making hard contact as regularly as he is, a .386 BABIP is almost
impossible to maintain. This is especially true when you consider the fact that
he’s making contact at the ninth lowest rate among Major League rookies.
Nonetheless, it’s hard not to be impressed with what he’s put up on the stat
sheet thus far during the 2015 season.
必須要提醒一點就是Grichuk的成績可能會修正.就算他能一直強勁的擊球,.386BAbip是幾
乎不可能維持的.當你考量他的contact率在聯盟菜鳥中倒數第九,這更可能發生.儘管如此,
Grichuk的2015球季,在數據上依然是令人眼睛為之一亮的.
Even with a lack of recognition, it’s impossible to argue the fact that Randal
Grichuk has established himself as a premier rookie in this league. A
regression is likely on its way at some point, given the outlandish BABIP and
lack of regular contact, as well as that high strikeout rate, but to be right
in the mix with the likes of Bryant, Duffy, and Pedersen in terms of WAR and
beyond makes Grichuk one of the higher quality rookies of 2015, even with the
lower recognition than many others throughout the league.
雖然認可不多,很難去爭執Randal Grichuk是頂級菜鳥的事實.過高的BAbip和不能持續製造
contact再加上高三振率,退步可能會出現.雖然認可比不上Duffy,Bryant,Pederson,但能和
Duffy,Bryant還有Pederson在WAR上不相上下,Grichuk應該被歸類在聯盟中好於其他人的菜
鳥.