http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/why-we-hate-the-diamondbacks/
The forecasting systems aren’t trying to project best-case outcomes.
Instead, they simply look at a Diamondbacks roster that has some key players
who are likely to perform worse than they did a year ago, sees zero depth in
the rotation, and several significant question marks among the projected
regulars, without any obvious internal replacements around if things go south
again. It’s a team that absolutely could win if enough things go right, but
while the new guys they got will help, the team isn’t adding those guys to a
79-win base. That’s just not how baseball works.
因為魯蛇的重點球員今年會從去年的高潮水準回歸
輪值沒有深度
沒有替代方案
如果運氣夠好的話 當然是有機會搶勝
不過以合理的角度來看 現在的魯蛇就只是支魯魯的79勝等級球隊而已