Diminishing returns and the offseason
當報酬遞減法則遇上快艇的休賽季補強
This offseason was universally proclaimed a success for the Clippers.
With the acquisitions of Jared Dudley and J.J. Redick, they made
massive upgrades on the wings and also added some interesting
versatility with tweener forward Antawn Jamison. The undercover star
of last season’s team, Matt Barnes, was re-signed to a very
reasonable deal and Darren Collison, signed on the cheap, helped
mitigate the loss of Eric Bledsoe.
快艇隊這次的休賽季被外界一致認同是個成功休賽季。在得到Jared Dudley
和J.J. Redick後，快艇隊的側翼進攻獲得顯著的升級。同時，增加了搖擺人
前鋒Antawn Jamison為球隊增添一些有意思的多樣性。此外，以相當合理的
價格簽回上一季球隊的隱形球星－Matt Barnes，和以便宜的價錢簽下Darren
Collison，幫助球隊舒緩少了Eric Bledsoe的損失。
The Clippers gained net talent and none of the new players look to
be a problematic fit. On the contrary, Redick, Dudley and Collison
fit perfectly in the Clippers’ offense. That offense should be an
explosive combination of shooting and dunks driven by the prowess
of Chris Paul.
快艇隊增加了新的天份，而且這些新球員看起來沒有任何融入球隊的問題。相
反的，Redick、Dudley和Collsion可以完美的融入快艇隊的進攻。由鬼神的
Chris Paul主導的進攻應該可以成為灌籃大賽和三分球大賽的組合。
The thing is, offense wasn’t an issue last season, and an offense
featuring Paul and Blake Griffin never will be an issue. Los Angeles
scored at a rate of just 1.8 points per 100 possessions below the
league leading Oklahoma City Thunder. Dudley and Redick should bridge
that gap, but that additional 1.8 points per 100 possessions
offensively is only equivalent to about four wins over the course of
a season. And when you consider the losses of Bledsoe and Odom, who
anchored the best qualified defensive lineup in the league, it’s
hard to see this offseason making that large of an impact on the
Clippers, at least in the regular season. Los Angeles will be largely
counting on internal player development.
事實上，進攻在上一季並不是個問題，以Paul和Blake Griffin為主的進攻永
遠不會是個問題。洛杉磯快艇隊上季得分效率以每一百次進攻來算的話只比進
攻效率最佳的奧克拉荷馬雷霆隊少1.8分。Dudley和Redick應該能補上這段差
距。然而，每百次進攻多這1.8分大概等同於整個賽季多個四勝而已。而你當
考慮到失去了Bledsoe和Odom這兩位穩固聯盟最優質的防守陣容的球員時，很
難去想像這個休賽季對快艇隊戰力有很大的影響，至少在常規賽時很難看到。
洛杉磯快艇隊的未來很大一部份將要依賴內部球員的成長。
Last season’s obstacle was the lack of defense, especially on the
interior. The Clippers’ defense got progressively worse throughout
the year, and the losses of Bledsoe and Odom don’t help the case
that L.A. will have a top flight defense this year.
上一季的失敗歸因於防守匱乏，尤其是禁區的鞏固。上季整季下來，快艇隊的
防守是漸漸變差，而再損失Bledsoe和Odom後這狀況對於快艇隊這季成為防守
強隊可是一點幫助都沒有。
NBA offenses have become more based on dribble penetrators who can
compromise a defense’s shape and open up opportunities for teammates.
In turn, centers who can protect the rim at a high level are a
precious commodity because they help defenses maintain shape against
these slashers.
NBA現今的進攻多數依賴運球切入者破壞防守陣勢和為隊友創造出機會。所以
可以鞏固禁區的中鋒是貴重的資產，因為在面對切豆腐高手時他們能維持防守
陣勢。
The Clippers have a glaring hole where that rim protector should be.
Theoretically, it’s DeAndre Jordan, but lack of understanding on how
to move defensively negates his elite athleticism. Will Doc Rivers be
able to turn Jordan into a high level defender? It’s possible, but
not something to bank on. Rivers doesn’t have a noted track record
as a talent developer, and the ability to coach a killer defensive
system may not be the same as the ability to turn an average defender
into a great one. Jordan won’t suddenly “get it” after hearing some
mystical secret of big man defense from Rivers. Learning takes time.
快艇隊的禁區有塊大洞，因為他們缺乏鞏固禁區的人。理論上來說，這該是
DeAndre Jordan的工作，但由於缺乏防守腳步，使他優異的體能無法發揮。Doc
Rivers能將Jordan變成優秀的防守者嗎？可能性雖存在，但不敢寄望於這個可
能性。Rivers並不以改造大師聞名，而執教出一個窒息式防守體系的能力不等
同於將普通的防守者改造成優異的防守者的能力。在得到一些Rivers的高個防
守密技後，Jordon並不會突然開竅。學習是件耗時的事。
Let’s go back to my initial assertion that the Clippers offseason
acquisitions would only improve the offense around two points per 100
possessions and discuss the idea of diminishing returns. Diminishing
returns says that as more things are added together, the value of
each of these things diminishes. Let’s say LeBron James is worth 17
wins above average (if a team of average players wins 41 games;
replace one of those with James and the team wins 55 games), Dwyane
Wade is worth 14 games, and Chris Bosh is worth 13. Does a completely
average team that replaces three of its players with these three win
76 games? Well, no, not quite. These three players have overlapping
roles so together they make less of an individual impact. That’s
the general idea. Diminishing returns has been shown to have an effect
on a number of basketball statistics, most famously rebounding.
回到我開頭主張快艇隊休賽期間的操作只會讓每百次進攻增加兩分，和討論報
酬遞減的概念。所謂的報酬遞減是說當更多的事物疊加在一起，其產生的價值
會遞減。假設說LeBron James的勝場價值比平均多17勝（假設一個以平均程度
球員組成的球隊能贏41場比賽；將James取代其中一個球員可以讓球隊勝場增至
55場），Dwyane Wade值14勝而Chris Bosh值13勝。將這個平均球隊以這三位球
員取代後可以贏到76場嗎？嗯哼，不會喔。這三位球員腳色會重疊，所以組在
一起時影響力會比單人時來的少。這是個普遍的概念。報酬遞減的效果已在很
多籃球數據上被證明有解釋力，尤以籃板最為顯著。
Why does this matter? Adding more really good offensive players to an
already top level offense isn’t going to improve said offense as much
as these players’ talent would indicate. There are only so many
possessions to go around, and Redick and Dudley aren’t going to space
the floor that much more than last year’s wings. L.A. didn’t address
its biggest issue of frontcourt defense this offseason, instead opting
to pay a lot of money and assets for a slight offensive improvement.
This approach could be validated if Rivers’ defensive system is good
enough to cover up for the lack of rim protector, or if Jordan and/or
Griffin makes a miraculous jump. Right now though, the offseason is
looking less and less like a major success.
這很重要嗎？再增加更多好的進攻球員到一個進攻能力快封頂的球隊不會讓這
支球隊進步到這些球員所能表現的程度。球權就只有那麼多，而Redick和Dudley
不會拉開比上一季側翼球員更多的空間。洛杉磯快艇隊並沒有針對前場防守這
個大洞在休賽季做補強，反而付更多錢和資產來使進攻有些微進步。若Rivers
的防守體系好到掩蓋禁區防守者的話，或Jordan和（或）Griffin奇蹟似的進步
的話，這個動作可能還有用。不過現在，這個休賽季看來越來越不像是個大躍
進。
原文網址－
http://tinyurl.com/mty98ul
心得：
這篇文章和自己的看法滿相近的
快艇這季的補強現階段都是針對自己失去的球員作些微的提升
翻開現在的陣容名單
去年最大的禁區防守問題還是在那邊
也就是說今年快艇補強帶有賭博性質
就是賭DJ和BG能開竅
能藉由賽季最大的補強－Doc Rivers的防守體系補足這個洞
不過我自己覺得即使Doc真的讓他們開竅了
禁區替補的防守和球員的健康也都是隱憂
上季的快艇比賽輸球往往都是因為當機時無法有效的制止對方
BG本身的身高問題對於他防守不利
而DJ空有體能卻往往只想蓋火鍋，反而失去防守位置或籃板卡位
這些防守意識和防守基礎功夫的問題實在很難推斷下一季能否被Doc給改造
此外，這次的後場補強偏攻擊性質
防守上真的是不增反減
若快艇後場防守比去年差，前場防守又無法鞏固的話
戰績說不定比去年還要慘
文中提到的現在NBA進攻型態正是大中鋒類型轉換的重點
三分球進攻的重要性提升，讓防守優異的中鋒在現今是不可或缺的存在
(但二連霸的熱火靠的反而是後場補防怪物)
像火箭隊DH、公牛隊Noah、溜馬隊Hibbert、尼克隊TC、灰熊隊小Gasol...等等
鞏固籃下讓外線防守者不需要過度補防
這也讓快艇的DJ定位...很模糊...既不是籃下的進攻發動者，也不是防守型中鋒
充其量算是...灌籃表演型中鋒吧
期待新賽季快艇在Doc帶領下能有一番作為的人
可能要先期待DJ長出防守腦袋
(有任何翻譯錯誤請麻煩指正喔)