常常有人在說運價漲上去物價會飆,所以政府一定打壓
這邊分享一點經濟學者的觀點
Economic Bulletin issue3 2021 裡面有一篇文章
"What is driving the recent surge in shipping costs?"
https://reurl.cc/W3bYVy
裡面提到了
"According to the World Input-Output Tables, shipping costs make up less than
3% of the final cost of manufacturing output, implying that international
shipping costs make up less than 1%."
運輸成本總共只佔了世界製造成本3%以下,而國際航運只佔了1%以下
這對於通膨的影響如何呢?裡面也說到
"Even a 50% annual increase in the Harpex – similar to that experienced
leading up to January 2021 – could raise annual PCE inflation by up to 0.25
percentage points one year later. "
即使Harpex(船舶租賃價格的指數)今年又再漲了50%,對於PCE的影響也只有0.25%
另外一篇文章(OECD所屬的經濟學者寫的)
"How will rising shipping cost affect inflation in OECD countries?"
https://reurl.cc/GmaqLG
也參考了上篇文章,計算了海運價格對於OECD國家CPI的影響
推論出即使從Q2開始每季都比上一季運費上漲10%,最終對於CPI的影響也僅小於0.25
共同結論:運價上漲對於物價的影響相當有限
歡迎各路專家打臉