https://www.economist.com/news/briefing/21725763-everyone-would-lose-how-nuclear-war-korea-could-start-and-how-it-might-end?frsc=dg%7Cd
很有趣的架空兵推, 討論北韓問題如何可以逐步的走向全面戰爭
我大概摘要翻譯一下:
IT WAS March 2019. America and South Korea were conducting an annual
large-scale military exercise, Foal Eagle, involving nearly 20,000
American troops and about 300,000 Korean counterparts. The drill was
taking place against a backdrop of continuing missile tests by the
North Koreans.
2019年三月, 美韓發動聯合軍事演習, 動員兩萬美軍和30萬韓軍
Over the previous two years, the regime of Kim Jong Un had successfully
test-launched several intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs). The
most recent was another two-stage rocket that analysts reckoned could
reach any city in America. It carried what appeared to be a credible
re-entry vehicle to shield its nuclear warhead as it plummeted through
the Earth’s atmosphere towards its target and from which decoys could be
fired to bamboozle missile defences.
然後再2016~19年這三年間, 北韓政權成功的多次試射洲際彈道飛彈. 並且飛彈還有
可以讓核彈頭重返大氣層的載具, 以及用來吸引反彈道飛彈的誘餌. 飛彈射程涵蓋
所有美國的大城市.
A seventh nuclear test in January had confirmed that the warhead carried
by the missile would in time be a thermonuclear one with the power to
destroy all life within an area of 70 square kilometres.
2019年一月份第七次北韓核子試爆證實北韓的飛彈可以裝載熱核彈,可以殺死70
平方公里內的所有生物
Whereas other new nuclear states, such as Pakistan and India, had been
content to carry out all their testing underground, Mr Kim had boasted
since the start of the year that he would soon provide final proof that
would convince the world to respect North Korea’s nuclear capability.
If the North really carried out such a test, the electromagnetic pulse
it would cause could take out satellites and damage power stations on
the ground.
同時金胖也宣稱, 不像印度和巴基斯坦會躲起來搞地下核子試爆, 北韓計畫進行
公開的核子試爆（可能是大氣層內或之外）．用來向世界證實北韓的核武能力
如果進行此一實驗，其電磁脈衝會把地面上的衛星傳訊以及電力系統造成危害
For Donald Trump, that would cross a red line. The moment was now or never.
Responding to claims by Mr Kim at the outset of what was to become his
troubled presidency that North Korea was in the final stages of developing
an ICBM, he had declared on Twitter, “It won’t happen!” In June 2017,
a few days before North Korea conducted its first ICBM test, Mr Trump had
stated that the “era of strategic patience” with Mr Kim was over.
對於川普來說這等於是北韓穿越了紅線． 因為川普在２０１７年６月就宣布
美國不會允許北韓有洲際彈道飛彈．
The president had thus far heeded the warnings of his defence secretary,
Jim Mattis, and his national security adviser, H.R. McMaster. The risks
of taking military action were too great, they had argued. But Mr Trump
was no longer willing to listen. Mr Mattis was said to be on the brink
of resignation, partly because he did not believe that Mr Kim was about
to carry out an atmospheric test. Mr McMaster had been fired and replaced
by John Bolton, a hawkish former ambassador to the UN who had been a prime
mover for action to overthrow Saddam Hussein because of his supposed
arsenal of weapons of mass destruction. Mr Bolton had told the president
that a high-altitude test was imminent. He had long argued for doing
whatever it would take to bring about regime change in North Korea.
川普總統不顧他的高級將領的反對和警告， 換上John Bolton當上國家安全問
他在布希執政之時，是美國駐聯合國大使，強烈支持發動第二次波灣戰爭
他說服川普北韓即將發動在大氣層內的核子試爆，所以美國應該採取行動造成北韓
政權更換
Mr Trump did not necessarily want to go that far. China’s leader,
Xi Jinping, had warned him that there would be “serious consequences”
if such a step was being considered. It was not clear whether China
would step in to help North Korea as it had in the past (the view in
Washington was that it would not). What was not in doubt was its
hostility to anything that might bring American forces north of the
38th parallel and close to China’s border.
川普不想和走那麼遠， 因為習近平有警告過川普．但是美國也不清楚如果美軍
穿越北緯３８度線，中共會不會協助北韓
South Korea’s president, Moon Jae-in, had at first been strongly
against any pre-emptive strike, as his country would bear the brunt
of any subsequent miscalculation by either side. But after bullying
from Washington, he had reluctantly withdrawn his opposition. Mr Trump
felt very strongly that he needed to show his supporters at home that
he could still make tough decisions.
南韓總統強力反對發動先制攻擊，但是在美國強大的壓力下收回了反對，川普
想要透過此一決策來說服國內他還能做出強大的決策
To that end, he had asked his military advisers to come up with a plan
that would show he meant business; powerful enough to make Mr Kim think
twice before hitting back, but not so drastic as to trigger war.
最後川普要求他的軍事顧問計畫一個軍事行動，強大到可以讓金胖不敢反擊
但是也沒有規模大到會引發全面戰爭
The preferred option would have been to have shot down the missile in
its boost or ascent phase with interceptors fired from US Navy destroyers.
But new SM3-Block2A interceptors, which might have been fast enough to do
the job, were not yet ready for deployment. The plan the Pentagon had
therefore come up with was to fire a salvo of cruise missiles from a
submarine in the Sea of Japan, destroying the missile on the ground.
Much would depend on getting prompt intelligence from surveillance
satellites and high-flying drones to hit the launch site before the missile
could be fired. Any subsequent tests, Mr Kim would be told, would get the
same treatment. A belligerent response by Mr Kim would be met by an attack
on his nuclear and missile facilities.
一開始計畫是一旦北韓再次試射彈道飛彈，就用標準三型飛彈擊落正在起飛的
彈道飛彈，但是因為標準三型攔截彈沒有完全處於戰備狀態，所以決定改成用
戰斧巡弋飛彈擊毀發射台，把飛彈摧毀在地面上．並且明確警告金胖，更進一步
的試射都會被摧毀，如果有核子試爆或是飛彈試射，他的核子和飛彈會被打擊
Mr Trump was warned, however, that although Mr Kim was thought to be
rational, he faced political problems of his own and would have to
react in some way. According to the most optimistic scenario, Mr Kim
might feel that he could get away with a gesture, such as firing
missiles at the outer islands, in an operation similar to the shelling
of Yeonpyeong in 2010. He might also conclude that he could anyway
stop testing for now, as he had credibly acquired the means to hit
the continental United States.
金雖然很理性，但是他也必須面對自己國內的政治問題．所以金決定還是試射彈
道飛彈，但是打的是離島，類似２０１０延平島砲擊那樣．
The operation appeared at first to succeed. There was little unintended
damage and not much indication whether the missile had been armed
(nuclear weapons are designed to resist accidental explosion
美軍的打擊很成功，擊毀了北韓的飛彈，但是也不清楚這枚飛彈有沒有攜帶彈頭
因為現在核彈頭被保護得很好不會因為爆炸而被誘發核子反應
But even as Mr Trump was bragging about the success of the strike,
Mr Kim was ordering elite units from his 180,000-strong special
operations force to carry out a series of hit-and-run attacks on
targets in the South. Some would infiltrate by using a network of
tunnels running beneath the demilitarised zone (DMZ); others would
be inserted from the sea by mini-submarines or flown in by ancient
hedge-hopping An-2 biplanes that were hard for modern radars to spot.
Meanwhile, North Korea’s navy had also begun laying mines in both the
West and East seas in an effort to disrupt trade. A series of cyber-attacks
on South Korea’s critical infrastructure also appeared to be under way.
北韓開始有限的軍事反制
包含
１派出特種部隊穿過３８線對南韓的特定目標進行打帶跑的報復行動
２北韓海軍開始在南韓的港口外海施放水雷
３北韓開始對南韓發動網路攻擊
（註解 這三件事過去北韓都幹過）
That turned out to be a grave miscalculation. The allies could not be
sure what Mr Kim planned next, so they had to prepare for the possibility
that sabotage attacks were a prelude to a major offensive. With that in mind
, the evacuation of foreign nationals, mainly from Seoul, had begun. These
included some 150,000 American civilians, over 40,000 Japanese and up to
1m Chinese citizens. The evacuation was intended to send a strong message
to the North that events were developing a momentum of their own.
原本北韓認為這不至於造成太大的影響，但是足以對南韓政府造成壓力讓南韓反對
美國接下來的所有反制行為．但是北韓錯估了．各國開始撤僑，透過撤僑，給予
北韓一個訊息，危機已經有自己的動量了，已經可能會失控
Therefore, rather than press ahead with OPLAN 5015 immediately, American
commanders decided that they should bring at least another 500 tactical
aircraft into the theatre, both from carriers and from bases in America.
They would be needed to maintain the sortie rate required to destroy
North Korea’s air defences and then hit all the other targets, including
both the ones that were already identified and also others that would emerge.
Although it might take a few weeks, it would signal to North Korea the
seriousness of their intent and might persuade Mr Kim not to press ahead
with a wider attack.
美國開始準備對於北韓進行空中打擊，開始ＯＰＬＡＮ５０１５作戰計畫
計畫要動員５００架飛機進入韓國戰區．用來維持攻擊的空中波次來摧毀
北韓的防空能力和地面目標．藉此嚇阻北韓不進一步發動軍事攻擊．
Mr Kim was aware that time was against him. At this stage, he too hoped
to avoid an all-out war, which beneath his usual bombast he knew he might
lose. But the build-up of forces in the South, especially the rapidly
increasing airpower that would soon allow his adversary to launch a
pre-emptive attack against his most important weapons, convinced him
that he had to fire a powerful warning shot of his own.
金胖知道隨著時間流逝，他會處於越來越弱勢的狀況．但他也希望避免戰爭．
但是他知道南邊的兵力動員和增加會導致他的敵人可以發動先制攻擊摧毀他最重要
的武力，所以金胖決定賭一把，給一個夠強的警告打擊來阻止美韓聯軍進一步在
韓國增兵
With over 14,000 artillery pieces, about 1,000 of them positioned in
caves and bunkers within range of Seoul, he could do a lot of damage
quickly. But unleashing the kind of barrage that his regime had threatened
in the past would take him rapidly past the point of no return. He
also had to decide how much of his long-range artillery force of 170mm
guns and both 240mm and 300mm multiple-rocket launchers he was prepared
to expose at this stage to counter-battery fire from the South. He
therefore opted for a limited salvo that would last under an hour before
pulling back his artillery to positions where it would be less vulnerable.
所以金胖決定對韓國發動一個”小規模”的炮兵打擊
部屬在３８線的炮兵開始對於南韓發動一小時以下的砲擊
His message to Mr Trump was that this was just a taste of what South
Korea and its allies could expect if he continued with his aggressive
war plans. It failed to have the effect that Mr Kim was hoping for.
Despite hints that he might stop there, with several thousand civilian
and military casualties already sustained, American and South Korean
commanders had to take action in case this was just the prelude to an
all-out artillery barrage.
雖然金胖的目的只是警告美韓聯軍，但是因為出現大量傷亡，導致美韓的指揮官
認為這是北韓大舉攻擊的前奏
Based on attempts to model the effects of such an attack, they believed
that in just a few hours up to 100,000 people would be killed in Seoul
and perhaps many more if they did not act fast. That meant putting OPLAN
5015 into action immediately and with it a warning directly from Mr
Trump to Mr Kim that, if he launched a missile believed to be carrying a
nuclear warhead, he could expect a swift and devastating nuclear response
that would “remove him and his country from the map.”
美韓聯軍指揮官認為幾個小時後，北韓的炮擊會讓首爾有十萬人死亡
所以川普決定開始執行對北韓的空中打擊作戰計畫
並且告訴金胖，如果金胖發射被認為帶有核彈頭飛彈，美軍將會發動核打擊
The ferocity of the initial assault stunned Mr Kim. Large parts of his
massive but technologically crude military infrastructure started
disappearing. Tank divisions he had ordered south were sitting ducks
in the narrow valleys they were forced to pass through. Any artillery
that had been left in the open was being systematically destroyed by
witheringly accurate counter-battery fire. Missile launchers supposedly
hidden in caves were being pulverised by huge bunker-busting bombs.
Twice Mr Kim had narrowly avoided being blown apart himself, when bombs
had hit command bunkers minutes after his departure.
結果金胖被美國的空中打擊嚇壞了，大量的部隊戰損，加上他差一點被空襲炸死
Faced with the imminent destruction of his regime, Mr Kim decided to go
down fighting. The artillery he had held back began its bombardment of
Seoul. A number of the shells and rockets had chemical warheads. Special
forces already in the South were ordered to release poison gas in populated
areas. Rumours rapidly spread of the use of biological weapons.
面對北韓政權可能馬上就要毀滅，金決定把軍事行動升高
開始使用砲兵以及敵後特種部隊施放毒氣．謠言還說北韓使用了生物武器
Most fatefully, Mr Kim, realising that his time would soon be up, had
made up his mind to launch what remained of his nuclear arsenal. He
cared little about the consequences either for his enemies or his own
long-suffering people. He lived just long enough to know that neither
of his two ICBMs had left its launch pad and three Musudan intermediate
-range missiles, aimed at Tokyo and the American base at Okinawa, had
been shot down by Patriot batteries in Japan before they could reach
their targets. The new THAAD system and Patriot interceptors in South
Korea had taken care of several medium-range Pukguksong-2 missiles.
But to his satisfaction, two short-range missiles, hidden like needles
in haystacks among multiple salvoes of conventionally armed rockets,
had got through to Seoul.
金胖此時已經絕望了 已經不在乎戰爭的結果只想要使用核武報復
金把他手上的彈道飛彈和核武都打出去
雖然絕大多數都被愛國者飛彈以及THAAD飛彈攔截，但是還是有兩枚短程飛彈擊中首爾
The initial death toll was put at 300,000, but the effects of radiation
would mean that many more would die in the months ahead, including large
numbers of American civilians and service personnel. Mr Trump was advised
that he had no option other than to retaliate with a nuclear strike on the
North. The decision was taken to use America’s latest nuclear bomb, the
guided B61-12, dropped by a B2 stealth bomber. It was both highly accurate
and could have its explosive power dialled down to reduce civilian
casualties and fallout. At least that was the hope.
首爾被核彈擊中後造成大量美國軍人或是平民死亡.川普決定進行核子報復
用B2轟炸機投擲美國最新型的B61-12戰術核彈.這種核彈高度的精準並且大家預期
因為當量降低所以可以減少民眾的誤傷.
After four had been dropped, North Korea’s war was over. Mr Kim and most
of his high command had been vaporised in their bunkers, his missile force
and nearly all his artillery had disappeared. Despite the use of relatively
low-yield weapons, military casualties were in the hundreds of thousands.
Over a million people were trying to leave Pyongyang, the capital, in case
of further attack. With order breaking down and food supplies getting scarce
, China found itself facing a humanitarian catastrophe on its border. It
claimed that lethal radioactive material was being blown into Chinese cities
by disrupted weather.
韓戰被四枚戰術核彈結束. 雖然戰術核彈的核子當量不高, 仍然有大量傷亡
超過一半萬難民要離開平壤, 北韓境內糧食供應系統毀滅
大量的難民湧向中國邊境, 輻射塵也被吹向中國的城市
Nobody knew how an appalled President Xi would respond. The shock sent
stockmarkets across the world reeling, foreshadowing a global recession
to come. Mr Trump, however, was undaunted. He tweeted: “Nuke attack on
Seoul by evil Kim was BAD! Had no choice but to nuke him back. But thanks
to my actions, America is safe again!”
此時沒人知道習近平會如何反應
戰爭使得全球股市崩盤甚至很多人預期新的金融危機即將發生
然後川普發推特:
"邪惡金胖真壞, 用核彈打首爾, 別無選擇, 只能用核彈加倍奉還他
但是, 感激我的行動巴, 美國又安全了" ^.<