Introducing David Price
介紹David Price
Well it didn't take too long for David Price, the Rays top prospect, to make
his debut. After being promoted from Triple-A Durham prior to this weekend's
series Price warmed up yet was not placed into either of yesterday's games in
part due to James Shields masterful performance. Today however Edwin Jackson
lasted two innings before being yanked leaving Price debuting against the
same team he faced in spring training when he faced Wilson Betemit, Shelly
Duncan, and Jason Lane and struck each of them out.
光芒的狀元新秀David Price在升上大聯盟後不久就得到登板機會。這個周末的系列賽之前
從3A升上來後，他就已經熱身好了，不過因為James Shields的優異表現而沒有在昨天的比
賽上場。然而今天Edwin Jackson在Price的大聯盟初次登板前只撐了2局，Price登板面對
的就是春訓已經交手過的洋基隊，那時他對決並三振了Wilson Betemit、Shelly Duncan、
Jason Lane。
Price would get through parts of six innings on 87 pitches. I suppose we
should thank Joe Maddon for giving us a glimpse of what to expect from Price
and his velocity in a starter's role. 57 of those pitches were fastballs
while the other 30 are going to be classified by PitchFx as "cutters"
although in reality Price throws a slider and a change-up. Before we jump
into the data and graphs I wanted to share my impressions.
Price投了快6局87球。我覺得我們應該感謝Joe Maddon，他給了我們機會看見對Price
應該有什麼期許還有他在先發時的驚人球速。87球中有57球是速球，其它的30球則被
PitchFx認為是切球，雖然實際上Price投的是滑球跟變速球。在我們跳到數據分析之前，
我想先分享一下我的對比賽的感想。
The fastball is the beginning and end of most at-bats. In fact Price's first
opponent, Xavier Nay, took a swing at his first pitch, a 95 miles per hour
heater, and promptly grounded to third baseman Evan Longoria. One pitch and
one out, Price's career started effortlessly. Robinson Cano would step into
the box and Price would face his first left-handed batter of the day. Price
hurled three straight fastballs, including a delightful 96.4 MPH pitch that
prompted a swing and miss, as Cano lined out to left fielder Eric Hinske.
速球是大多數打席的第一球和最後一球。事實上Price面對的第一個對手Xavier Nady
在揮擊了第一顆95英里的火球，這球滾向了三壘手Evan Longoria的方向，一球就解決了
打者。Price以一種毫不費力的方式開始了他的大聯盟生涯。接著下一棒Robinson Cano走
進了打擊區，Price今天第一次面對左打。Price直接猛投了三顆速球，一顆更達到96.4英
里並且誘使Cano揮空，最後Cano擊出了左外野方向的平飛球出局。
Next up was Pudge Rodriguez. Price immediately met the future hall of famer
with a 97.2 MPH fastball fouled off. Almost teasingly, Price slung his
slider, which registered at 89.5 and broke in to righties, Rodriguez swung
and missed, leaving him in an 0-2 count and giving Price the chance to record
his first strikeout and inning. Naturally Price went back to his heater and
Rodriguez chased it at 95.9.
下一個上來的是Pudge Rodriguez。Price一見面就送了未來的名人堂捕手一顆97.2的火球
，Pudge打成了界外。幾乎是戲弄地，Price投了一顆89.5英里向右打移動的滑球，I-Rod
揮空，0-2落後，給了Price拿下第一次三振的機會。很自然地，Price又投出了速球，
95.9英里，I-Rod追打，揮棒落空。
Two things I noted:
A) How much of his velocity was due to being pumped up?
B) How much of the velocity would remain moving forward?
我注意到了2件事：
A)有多少球速是因剛上場體力充沛才那麼快?
B)隨著比賽的進行會剩下多少球速?
I'll save you my further attempts at being Len Kasper and skip to some
unorganized details.
我會省去一球一球播報的方式直接跳到一些未經組織的細節。
Price did give up two runs on three hits including a Derek Jeter homerun. I
am not sure if that homerun came on a slider or change. He could start in
five days and would be at least a league average third starter. The Alex
Rodriguez hit will show as a double, but the ball was a blooper that landed
near the side right field wall and bounced over. Price will throw his
fastball at any time against anyone. The reports and murmurs of control
issues will soon be gone; he seemed to be in control of his pitches quite
well. I really cannot wait until he takes a full-time starting job.
Price被擊出3支安打、失了2分，其中包括了Derek Jeter的一支全壘打。我不確定那支
全壘打的那球是顆滑球還是變速球。他能在升上大聯盟五天後先發，並且至少有聯盟平均
的三號先發水準。A-Rod打了一支二壘安打，不過這球是個軟弱的飛球，十分靠近右外野牆，
而且彈了出去，才形成一支二壘安打。Price不管在任何時候面對任何人都一定會選擇投速
球。報告還有關於控球不好的議論會很快消聲匿跡，他看起來能把投出的球控制得非常完
美。我真的等不及想看他成為全職先發了。
Okay, now let's get into the fancy stuff, first a fastball velocity chart:
好，讓我們開始進入正題吧，首先是速球的球速表。
98-| ■ ■
| ■ ■ ■
v 96-|■■■■ ■■ ■■■ ■■
e | ■■ ■■ ■ ■■■■
l 94-| ■ ■■■ ■■■ ■■■
o | ■
c 92-| ■
i |
t 90-|
y |
88-| ■■ ■ ■
|
86-|
|_________________________________________________________
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
Fastballs
畫得有點爛 請見諒= =
Overall pretty impressive, although you can certainly see the downward trend
beginning at about the 30 fastball mark. Of course we're talking about going
from sitting around 96 on average to around 94 and some change. It appears
either Price made a conscious (or perhaps unconscious) effort to slow his
pitch down. That or it could simply be a misclassification, take your pick.
Sustaining good velocity is not going to be a concern for Price
總體來說令人印象深刻，雖然你可能會注意到從第30球後球速有開始下降的趨勢。當然我
們是討論從96英里到94英里還有一些變化。似乎是Price有意(或無意)讓球速下降。這很
有可能只是誤認，注意，維持良好的球速並不會是Price所需要擔心的事。
Price's "cutter" sat at 87.09 on average and topped out at 91.1. We're
talking about mostly, if not all, sliders going at 87+. I did a quick search
on FanGraphs and immediately noticed Tim Lincecum sitting in similar ranges
for his slider and fastball combo. I took Lincecum's seasonal averages to
create this:
Price的"切球"平均是87.09英里，最高來到91.1英里。我們大多討論的滑球，通常不會達
到87英里以上。我在FanGraphs快速的搜尋了一下，很快地我找到了Lincecum的速球和滑球
也在相似的範圍內。我用Lincecum球季的平均數據打了下面的表格：
Pitcher FBv FBhb FBvb SLv SLhb SLhv
Price 94.75 3.44 6.90 87.09 -1.27 2.30
Lincecum 95.06 -3.33 11.04 85.01 1.92 1.69
The two distinct differences, outside of Lincecum's fastball having more
"up-break" are their arms of choice (which also explains why Lincecum's
fastball horizontal break is "negative" or inside to righties and why his
slider is "positive" or away from righties) and the fact that Price will not
be competing for the National League Cy Young anytime soon.
除了Lincecum的速球有較多的"up-break"之外，兩個明顯的差異是他們的慣用手不同。(這
也解釋了為什麼Lincecum的速球水平變化是"負"的，往右打者的內角移動，還有他的滑球
為什麼是"正"的，往右打者的外角移動。)以及Price短期內還不會加入國聯賽揚獎的角逐
之中。