http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=12981
by Larry Granillo
St. Louis Cardinals: 87-75 projected 2011 record
Why They Might Win: When you boast one of the league's top 3-4 combos in
your lineup (Matt Holliday and Albert Pujols) and one of the league's top
1-2 combos in your rotation (Adam Wainwight and Chris Carpenter), you're
always going to be considered a favorite in your division. Typically
strong years from those four stalwarts will have the Cardinals contending
late into September.
Why They Might Not Win: Lance Berkman, who hasn't played in the outfield
since 2007 and whose body type doesn't exactly scream "spry and agile,"
will be the everyday starter in right field. There will always be
questions about the 36-year-old Carpenter's ability to stay healthy as he
ages, despite his 35 starts in 2010.
Player Who Could Surprise: Berkman may not be the right answer
defensively, but his bat should be a welcome lineup addition. Despite
Berkman's inauspicious tour in pinstripes last year, PECOTA sees good
things for him in 2011, projecting a .380 on-base percentage, .456
slugging percentage, and 22 home runs. The only non-Pujols player on the
team to project better than Berkman is Matt Holliday.
Player Who Could Disappoint: Jake Westbrook, currently penciled in behind
the co-aces of Wainwright and Carpenter, is projected to put up a 4.27 ERA
with only 72 strikeouts and 12 home runs allowed (in 126 innings pitched).
While not horrible, it may be less than the Busch Stadium faithful are
hoping for.
Milwaukee Brewers: 85-77 projected 2011 record
Why They Might Win: Milwaukee GM Doug Melvin surprised everybody over the
winter by not only hanging onto Prince Fielder but also emptying the farm
system to trade for two top-of-the-rotation starters in Shaun Marcum and
Zack Greinke. After adding those two to Yovani Gallardo and Ryan Braun and
the rest of the Brewers offense, Milwaukee expects to do big things this
year.
Why They Might Not Win: In 2010, the Brewers had two glaring weaknesses:
pitching and defense. The off-season trades addressed the pitching problem
in a big way. The defense, however, got worse, which could prove to be a
real problem if things get out of hand.
Player Who Could Surprise: PECOTA gives the 29-year-old Marcum a 47%
chance to improve on his excellent 2010 season, after a 2009 missed to
Tommy John surgery.
Player Who Could Disappoint: Corey Hart signed a three-year, $26.5 million
contract extension last year before ending the 2010 season with 31 home
runs, 102 runs batted in, and a .283 batting average. PECOTA projects
Hart's 2011 season to be a little more in line with the rest of his
career, with 21 home runs, 75 runs batted in, and a .271 average.
Cincinnati Reds: 81-81 projected 2011 record
Why They Might Win: Joey Votto's 2010 Most Valuable Player award was not
undeserved. With his continued improvement alongside a lineup that scored
the most runs in the National League in 2010, the Reds are in decent shape
to defend their division title.
Why They Might Not Win: While a rotation with Bronson Arroyo, Johnny
Cueto, and Mike Leake is nothing to be embarrassed about, it can't compare
with Cincinnati's chief division rivals. In a big division like the
Central, this could prove fatal.
Player Who Could Surprise: In his brief September cameo, Aroldis Chapman
flashed a 105-mph fastball. PECOTA foresees more of the same for Chapman
in 2011, projecting 129 strikeouts for the flamethrowing Cuban in only 108
innings pitched.
Player Who Could Disappoint: Often, the biggest disappointments come from
players who surprised the year before. Mike Leake falls into that
category; after his strong rookie campaign, he's projected for a 4.88 ERA
with only 92 strikeouts in 140 innings pitched.
Chicago Cubs: 80-82 projected 2011 record
Why They Might Win: The Cubs have two bright young stars in shortstop
Starlin Castro and catcher Geovany Soto. After a textbook sophomore slump
in 2009, Soto bounced back in 2010. The 21-year-old Castro will look to
avoid a slump of his own after a strong rookie season. With bounceback
years from Aramis Ramirez and Carlos Zambrano, and the newly arrived Matt
Garza, the Cubs certainly have the pieces to challenge.
Why They Might Not Win: Aramis Ramirez will be 33 in 2011 and looked
absolutely terrible last year before hitting the disabled list. Though he
was eventually able to pull his numbers above the Mendoza line, his age
and recent injury history are cause for concern.
Player Who Could Surprise: Playing first base for Tampa Bay last year,
Carlos Pena finished the season with a .196 batting average, but slugged
28 home runs and knocked in 84 runs. His projections for 2011 are much
more optimistic, with PECOTA projecting a .230 batting average and .355
on-base percentage with 31 home runs.
Player Who Could Disappoint: Matt Garza comes to Chicago from the Rays at
the expense of two of the Cubs' top prospects. If PECOTA's projections for
Garza turn out to be true—a 4.15 ERA with 154 strikeouts and 23 home runs
allowed—Cubs fans won't be too happy with the price they paid.
Pittsburgh Pirates: 71-91 projected 2011 record
Why They Might Win: Andrew McCutchen, Pedro Alvarez, and Neil Walker are
all young talents to be excited about. And with Walker the eldest of the
three at only 25 years old, the trio should just keep getting better.
Why They Might Not Win: The 2010 Pirates lost 105 games. Even if McCutchen
et al. improve to All-Star caliber in 2011, the team still has weaknesses
on the mound, in the bullpen, and around the diamond.
Player Who Could Surprise: Traded from the Dodgers to the Pirates last
July, James MacDonald put together a solid two months in Pittsburgh, with
a 3.52 ERA in 11 starts. PECOTA projects MacDonald to be Pittsburgh's best
pitcher, with a 4.34 ERA and 108 strikeouts in only 20 games.
Player Who Could Disappoint: PECOTA does not like Neil Walker's high
batting average (.340) on balls in play in 2010. Walker's luck is
projected to come back down to earth, leaving his stats a more middle-
infielderish .255/.306/.415.
Houston Astros: 68-94 projected 2011 record
Why They Might Win: Wandy Rodriguez is an underrated starting pitcher,
having posted excellent ERAs three years running. Hunter Pence and Michael
Bourn are good young outfielders who any team would be happy to have.
Why They Might Not Win: Neither of the Astros' two new infield
acquisitions, Bill Hall and Clint Barmes, would be starters on a typical
playoff team. Carlos Lee put up one of the worst seasons in baseball in
2010, and with his age, size, and skills, there's little reason to expect
a big rebound.
Player Who Could Surprise: For the Mariners last year, Ryan Rowland-Smith
posted an underwhelming 1-10 record and 6.75 ERA. PECOTA sees the change
in scenery as positive for Rowland-Smith, projecting a 6-7 record and a
4.78 ERA if the Aussie can crack the rotation.
Player Who Could Disappoint: Hall's one-year contract is cheap enough that
it won't ruin Houston's payroll if he doesn't live up to expectations.
Which is good, because PECOTA projects a mediocre .223/.290/.391 season
from Hall as Houston's starting second baseman.