In the aftermath of a wild day of baseball news, from Alex Rodriguez's
disappearing act to an impromptu appearance on WFAN in New York and the
blockbuster that saw Ian Kinsler, Price Fielder and millions of dollars switch
hands, the hot stove is burning.
從A-Rod於WFAN電台一番即席談話,到Ian Kinsler與Prince Fielder的大交易案,棒球新聞
在這瘋狂的一天餘波盪漾,宛若暖爐正熊熊燃燒。
Yet, for all the talk about Major League Baseball's busy offseason, including
the eventual destinations of top free-agent bats like Robinson Cano and Jacoby
Ellsbury and arms like Matt Garza and Masahiro Tanaka, little time is devoted to
a handful, or more, of arms that have the ability to impact the 2014 pennant
race.
大夥在休季後仍忙碌於許多話題,包含頂級自由球員Cano、Ellsbury、Garza與田中將大的
最終動向,至於少部分的時間就關注在那些能對2014球季具有一定影響力的投手。
Yes, folks, we're talking about relief pitchers. Overpaid, underused and
misunderstood, the high-leverage aces on the open market are well-known
commodities but receiving very little interest when hot stove banter is the
topic of conversation in baseball circles.
是的,我們要談談自由市場的後援投手,太貴、過度使用、被誤解的、高效率Ace們,這些
知名但卻甚少受到關注自由球員。
Days after the San Francisco Giants considered rewarding, via CBS Sports,
left-handed specialist Javier Lopez with a three-year contract, let's take a
look at the the best fits for the top remaining relief pitchers on the
free-agent market.
在Javier Lopez簽下13M/3Y的合約留在Giants後,我們看看自由市場還有哪些好的後援投手
1. Joe Nathan (64.2 IP, 43 SV, 1.39 ERA), Detroit Tigers
Every year, one or two player-team combinations stand out as a perfect match on
the free-agent market. This winter, it's an eventual marriage between Joe Nathan
and the Detroit Tigers.
每年,有一到兩個球員與球隊宛如天作之合般的結合,今年冬天就注定是Nathan與老虎的姻
緣了。
In 2013, Detroit's bullpen struggled during the early part of the season. By the
All-Star break, former manager Jim Leyland settled on a lefty-righty combination
of DrewSmyly and Joaquin Benoit to handle the eighth and ninth innings,
respectively. When new manager Brad Ausmus arrives in Lakeland, Fla., for spring
training, neither are likely to be available to him. Benoit is a free agent and
Smyly is expected to be converted back to the starting rotation.
13年球季初期老虎牛棚不慎穩定,明星賽休兵時,前教頭Leyland決定讓Smyly跟Benoit當八
、九局的左右護法,但當新上任的Brad Ausmus明年要到Lakeland春訓時,這兩個恐怕都不
能用了,Benoit已投身自由市場,Smyly則被設定要轉做先發。
That leaves an obvious hole at closer for a team on the precipice of a World
Series title. After Wednesday's trade between Texas and Detroit, the Tigers have
around $8 million extra in their 2014 budget to spend on the open market.
那確實在老虎爭冠的危急處境下留了一個大洞,但在老虎與遊騎兵大交易後,老虎2014年又
有了8M可運用。
Enter the best closer on the market, Joe Nathan. The no-brainer free agent isn't
just good-he might be the second-best closer, behind Mariano Rivera, of this
generation. At the age of 39, he's showed no signs of slowing down and would be
a perfect fit on a contender in Detroit.
在自由市場中,Joe Nathan.不僅是讚,他還可能是這個世代中僅次於Mo的第二把交椅。即
便39歲了,但也沒有退化徵兆,恰恰適合老虎隊。
2. Grant Balfour (64.2 IP, 38 SV, 2.59 ERA), Cleveland Indians
Buoyed by an excellent offseason, including the hiring of the American League
Manager of the Year, Cleveland went from 68-win disaster in 2012 to an American
League playoff berth in 2013. If it can fill holes this offseason, including one
in the back end of the bullpen, a true challenge to the Detroit Tigers in the AL
Central may commence next season.
印地安人經過休季的努力,包含找到了美聯最佳教頭,從2012年68勝進步到晉級季後賽,如
果新賽季前能把缺點彌補起來,包含牛棚的問題,是足以撼動老虎在美聯中區的王座的。
In order for Cleveland to take the next step, it'll need to find a way to finish
games stronger and beat the Detroit Tigers in head-to-head battles during the
regular season.
為了讓印地安人更進一步,需要找一個能終結比賽,並在例行賽能擊退老虎的投手。
First, fixing the bullpen. During the 2013 season, only five teams in baseball
posted a worse ERA after the sixth inning, per ESPN. Moving on from the overpaid
Chris Perez ($7.3 mil, 87 ERA+) is addition by subtraction for Terry Francona's
bullpen. The 28-year-old reliever was released by Cleveland in October, per
MLB.com, putting to rest any speculation of the team retaining his rights as an
arbitration-eligible pitcher in 2014.
首先是牛棚戰力,13球季只有五隻球隊在第六局後的ERA有飆升,28歲7.3M的Chris Perez已
在10月被釋出,消弭了會行使仲裁權的可能性。
The next Indians closer will likely be an upgrade from the enigmatic Perez from
the moment he arrives in spring training, but finding a personality ready to
take on the Detroit Tigers will be an added responsibility to the job
description. In 2013, Cleveland went 4-15 in 19 head-to-head games with Detroit.
Despite losing 11 games in the standings, the Indians lost the AL Central crown
by just one game.
預期春訓時印地安人的終結者會比謎樣般的Perez好的多,但要找一個願意承受老虎強大火
力的投手,這等於是另一項重擔,13球季印地安人對老虎是4-15,儘管差了11場,但在分區
王座上僅有一場勝差。
Enter Grant Balfour. If your memory is short, here's a glimpse at the former
Oakland closer in a big game against Detroit. His ability is evident, but
there's something extra about Balfour vs. Detroit that makes him the perfect fit
for the Cleveland Indians.
簽下Balfour,如果你記憶力不好,看看先前季後賽他對老虎的表現,他的實力可是品質保
證的,且Balfour打老虎還有更多額外的好處(他沒寫,但我猜是場上劍拔弩張的張力)。
3. Fernando Rodney (66.2 IP, 37 SV, 3.38 ERA), New York Yankees
The hardest job in New York sports is up for grabs next season. Simply put, the
closer that replaces Mariano Rivera has an impossible task. Greatness isn't good
enough. Dominance will be met with apathy. Every blown save will be scrutinized
through the eyes of fans that just watched the best closer in history toy with
opposing batters for nearly two decades.
洋基新球季最難也最簡單的就是找到替代Mo的人選,偉大並不足夠,再強的宰制力也會遇到
無情的(球迷),每一次救援失敗都會被球迷放大,誰叫他們過去將近二十年享有了Mo呢!
All of that explains why the Yankees don't plan on just handing the job, per NJ.
com, to David Robertson, the obvious in-house heir apparent to Rivera's throne.
The 28-year-old should have to earn the job. If he can't, competition is
necessary to rescue Robertson from a firestorm of criticism.
為何不交棒給Robertson,讓他當Mo的法定繼承人就好,所有解釋是說這位28歲的投手理應
去接棒,但如果他無法勝任,簽一個競逐終結者角色的投手可讓Robertson免於輿論的砲轟
Fernando Rodney, off two highly successful seasons in Tampa Bay, is a perfect
fit. As a free agent, he'll command more on the open market than the Rays can
offer. If he joins the Yankees as a setup man, the opportunity to close could
open up quickly, positioning the 36-year-old to star in a big market.
Rodney過去兩季在光芒都很成功,投身自由市場後光芒也沒多餘銀彈留住他,如果讓36歲的
他當洋基布局投手,拿下比賽的機會將大增。
At worst, Rodney could pitch well as a setup man before reentering the
free-agent market in a year or two. The path, from Rays closer to Yankees
insurance policy, would be reminiscent of Rafael Soriano's trek from Tampa to
New York prior to the 2011 season. That career arc led Soriano back to a
full-time closing position and $22 million in Washington.
大不了Rodney可以在洋基當一兩年布局投手重返自由市場,這樣的途徑,可回溯2011年
Rafael Soriano從光芒到洋基,最後再到國民拿22M(這邊不知作者是否有錯,好像是
28M/2Y)。
4. Brian Wilson (13.2 IP, 0.66 ERA), Los Angeles Angels
If Wilson were willing to shave his beard, he would have been listed as the best
option for the New York Yankees in the same capacity as Fernando Rodney. He's
not, per CBS New York, so expect his free-agent options to remain on the West
Coast.
如果Wilson願意剔鬍子的話,他也會是洋基的最佳人選,但顯然不會成真,所以還是著眼於
西岸吧。
After dominating (130 ERA+) for the San Francisco Giants from 2006-2011, Wilson
underwent Tommy John surgery in 2012. When his one-year rehab was complete, the
eccentric flamethrower resurfaced with the Los Angeles Dodgers in 2013.
06-11為巨人立下汗馬功勞後,12年動了Tommy John,一年復原期過後,又為道奇飆出不尋
常地火球了。
In a small sample, Wilson profiled as a different, yet effective, pitcher than
before injury. Despite a noticeable drop-off in velocity, the 31-year-old
reliever posted career-best ground-ball (56.3) and xFIPrates, per Fangraphs, for
the Dodgers. If Wilson can regain some of his velocity in 2014, along with
generating ground balls at a rate of 50 percent, he could be the steal of the
free-agent market.
樣本雖不多,但Wilson表現跟受傷前完全不同,且更有效率,盡管球速不若以往,但滾地球
比(56.3)跟xFIP(Fielding Independent Pitching)卻是生涯最佳。如果2014年球速能找回
來,維持滾地球比在五成,簽下他的球隊會是自由市場的神來一偷。
While the Angels do have Ernesto Frieriunder contract, his ERA (3.80) was below
average and his 3.9 BB/9 rate is too high for any manager to be comfortable with
. If the Angels plan on making a run at the postseason in 2014, they'll need a
stable arm at the end of games. Wilson, despite only throwing 15.2 total innings
since 2011, can be that arm.
當天使Ernesto Frieri防禦率3.80高於平均值,且每九局3.9個四壞偏高得讓教頭不放心,
若14年天使想要競逐季後賽,他們需要一個更可靠的投手,Brian Wilson雖然自2011年後例
行賽只投了15.2局,但他足以勝任。
5. Joaquin Benoit (67 IP, 24 SV, 2.01 ERA), Seattle Mariners
For some reason, there is a negative connotation around Benoit as a star relief
pitcher. Perhaps it's due to a journeyman career, Detroit's unwillingness to
hand him the closing job until midseason in 2013 or the fact that he's not a
"proven" closer, but, when looking at the numbers, it's ridiculous.
就某些層面來看,大家對Benoit是不是一個明星級的後援投手,都語帶保留,或許這跟他的
短期工生涯有關(不知道作者是指傷病還是其他? 剛剛看Benoit數據也還好,除了09沒打,
近四年都有吃60局以上)。老虎一直到13年季中才把他扶正為終結者,或許他不是一個已"證
明自己"的終結者,但看看數據,你就知道那是無稽之談。
Over the last four seasons, spanning Benoit's time in Tampa Bay and Detroit, he
's posted a 2.53 ERA in 259.1 innings pitched. How good is that number? Unless
we're talking about David Robertson, Grant Balfour or Brad Ziegler, it's better
than any other reliever in baseball (with at least 250 IP) over that span.
過去四季以來橫跨光芒到老虎,Benoit 259.1局的投球是2.53的防禦率,這成績有多好?除
非提到David Robertson、Grant Balfour或Brad Ziegler,這足以打敗其他過去四季並投超
過250局的後援投手了。
2010-2013 超過250局的後援投手
Reliever IP ERA
David Robertson 255 2.36
Grant Balfour 254.2 2.47
Brad Ziegler 260.2 2.52
Joaquin Benoit 259.1 2.53
Tyler Clippard 323 2.73
Jim Johnson 256.1 2.77
Luke Gregerson 272 2.78
Craig Breslow 257 2.84
Wilton Lopez 279.2 3.03
Jonathan Papelbon 263 3.05
Even if we threw in star reliever like Craig Kimbrel or Aroldis Chapman, both
with less than 250 innings since 2010, Benoit's numbers would still stand out
among MLB relief aces.
即便是Craig Kimbrel跟 Aroldis Chapman,從2010算起他們倆也沒各吃下250局,所以
Benoit在後援裡算很突出了。
For a team like the Seattle Mariners, attempting to turn rebuilding into winning
in 2014, Benoit would be a perfect fit. As the franchise attempts to find bats
this winter to complement a good, young pitching staff, close games are to be
expected again next season. If a pitcher like Benoit can close those games,
Seattle might be a .500 team for the first time since 2009.
以水手來說,試著在14年重建,Benoit是很合適的人選,當球隊也在找好的棒子來匹配他們
的年輕投手時,比分接近的比賽明年應該會再次上演,如果Benoit能勝任,水手應可從09年
後再次回到五成勝率。
新聞來源:http://ppt.cc/Io0p
第一次翻MLB外電,請大家參考
另話說Benoit表現雖然不俗,但季後對OAK與BOS還是讓人心驚驚啊