1.來源連結:
CNBC
http://www.cnbc.com/id/101147338
(英文新聞應該可以吧?)
2.內容:
30% correction coming for Hong Kong housing: Barclays
After years of breakneck advances, Hong Kong's property prices may be headed
for a correction of as much as 30 percent, analysts said.
"The Hong Kong property market is about to enter its first real downturn
since 1998," Paul Louie and Zita Qin, analysts at Barclays, said in a note.
While the market consensus is expecting a property price correction of around
15 percent, triggered by higher interest rates, Barclays' analysts point to
other catalysts, including household income growth stalling, rents hitting
the income ceiling, supply exceeding demand and developers speeding up
presales.
"With home prices up 111 percent since end-2008, we believe there is
significant scope for owners to take profit on their property holdings," they
said, initiating the Hong Kong property sector with a "negative" view and
downgrading its Asia ex-Japan real estate industry view to "negative" from
"neutral."
They expect home prices to drop by at least 30 percent by the end of 2015,
with knock-on effects on commercial property sending office prices down 20
percent and retail properties with zero growth.
"Past cycles have shown that the housing, retail and office markets are
highly correlated. As home prices decline, we expect retail property to be
affected by the potential negative wealth effect on local consumption, with a
secondary knock-on effect affecting office rental demand," the report said.
3.心得或感想:
(後面還有很多內容,就不貼了,有興趣請點網址看)
新聞內容是Barclays和Deutsche Bank都預測香港房市未來會修正
理由包括了利率提高、薪資停滯、租金無法提升、供過於求、以及建商加速預售等等
此外也提到了最近有建商主動降價,被認為是下跌的訊號
(搜尋了一下是"新鴻基"的天璽)
因為個人對香港房市不熟悉,所以想來請教一下各位對這篇報導的看法
請問有在接觸香港房市的板友,真的如報導所說的有下跌的前兆了嗎
如果有,大家預測修正幅度會是多少呢?
(台灣和香港各項條件不盡相同,這裡沒有要討論與台灣房市的相關性)