http://tinyurl.com/82x6oo
There’s a new section in the batting player pages which does the job of
calculating a player’s runs over replacement and wins over replacement.
Major thanks goes to Dave Cameron, Sean Smith, and Tangotiger for instructing
me on the best way to do this.
Under each “Value” section you’ll find:
大概說明一下,有錯請指正
要了解這個要先講wOBA是甚麼? wOBA是TangoTiger 所提出的統計數字
wOBA(Weight On-Base Average)
=(0.72xNIBB + 0.75xHBP + 0.90x1B + 0.92xRBOE + 1.24x2B + 1.56x3B + 1.95xHR)
/ PA
簡單來說就是有經過加權統計的上壘率
Batting - wRAA (Runs Above Average) with a park adjustment.
wRAA=(wOBA - lgwOBA) / wOBAScale * PA
wRAA則是計算球員得比聯盟平均多得幾分,這是用wOBA算的
wOBAScale是一個將wOBA轉換成Run的基數 每年會有微小的變化
但大概是1.15左右
Fielding - The sum of a player’s UZR.
不用說了就是把UZR的數字都加起來
Replacement - The replacement level adjustment set at 20 Runs / 600 PA.
replacement level的調整每600個PA 20Runs EX:鐵爺今年685PA
replacement=20*685/600
Positional - The positional adjustment set using Tangotiger’s values (see
this link)
Positional=
(12.5/162 * G * (C/PG)) + (7.5/162 * G * (SS/PG)) +
(2.5/162 * G * ((P2B+P3B+CF)/PG)) +
(-7.5/162 * G * ((RF+LF)/PG)) + (-12.5/162 * G * (P1B/PG)) +
(-22.5/162 * G * (DH/PG))
Tango說DH 實際上應該是-17.5
EX:A-Rod Positonal=2.5/162*131(3B)+(-17.5/162*7)(DH)=1.3
每個守備有不同的調整常數 有興趣的可以去 這看 http://tinyurl.com/9rkd4n
Value Runs - The sum of Batting, Fielding, Replacement, and Positional.
把上面那幾個數字都加起來
Value Wins - Value Runs converted to a wins scale.
將Value Runs除一個將Runs轉成Wins的常數每年不太一樣大都在10~11之間巴
今年大概是10.5左右
Dollars - Value Wins converted to the following dollar scale:
將Value Win轉成$$
2002 - $2.6m / win
2003 - $2.8m / win
2004 - $3.1m / win
2005 - $3.4m / win
2006 - $3.7m / win
2007 - $4.1m / win
2008 - $4.5m / win
This will all eventually be in the leaderboards and team pages, probably later
this week.
Cool!!!連WAR都有了 Fangraphs就甘心耶
補個例子EX:
Alex Rodriguez 2008 wOBA:0.413
Batting=(0.413-0.334)/1.15*594=40.5
(0.334是lgwOBA,1.15是轉換系數 594是他今年的打席數)
Fielding 我不會算UZR XD 直接幹FanGraphs的 -0.1
Replacement=20*594/600=19.8
Postional=1.3
Value Run=40.5-0.1+19.8+1.3=61.5
Value Win=61.5/10=6.15
$$=6.15*4.5=27.6M