原文連結:
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/five-questions-san-diego-padres3/
by Geoff Young
March 24, 2010
Petco Park has lost its new park smell, the Padres have lost many games, and
many fans have lost that loving feeling. There is a lot of work to be done in
San Diego, and overwhelming success isn't likely to occur in 2010.
Fortunately, between the new ownership group and some exciting young talent,
the Padres appear to be on the right track...even if it's a slow and
sometimes bumpy track.
去年Petco Park輸掉了他的新球場味 教士隊輸掉了很多比賽 球迷們也輸掉了對教士的愛
這地方需要很多改進 然而大躍進在今年眼看是莫可能
幸好新東家跟球隊新血讓這條改進之路看來沒有脫軌 再顛簸 再漫長也應該能走到終點
How will Chase Headley respond now that he's back at third base?
Chase Headley拿回了先發三壘後能表現如何?
Miscast as a left fielder, the former top prospect finally gets the chance to
play every day at his natural position. By Headley's own admission, he was
never going to be anything more than an average outfielder. With the trade of
Kevin Kouzmanoff to Oakland, Headley returns to the hot corner, where the
hope is that with less to worry about defensively, he can focus more on his
hitting and become a force in the lineup.
將Kevin Kouzmanoff換去運動家之後 前頂尖作物終於能回到他本命的三壘
Headley本人也承認 他只可能是個平庸的左外
從左外回到三壘熱區 守備壓力減輕後Headley應該能為打線注入一股原力
(不用分心守備的戰神Headley表示:誰能擋住我的棒子?)
Headley's first two full seasons in the big leagues have been solid, but
nothing special. His list of comparable players includes such luminaries as
Greg Briley, Leon Culbertson, Leon Roberts, and Willard Marshall. Part of the
problem is that Petco Park destroys Headley's game (.218/.305/.355 in 455 PA,
vs .301/.368/.437 in 546 PA on the road). Moving from left field to third
base won't change that, but now he can spend less time thinking about how to
avoid bumping into moving objects in the outfield and more time figuring out
ways to produce at home.
戰神黑力的頭兩個完整球季穩定但不亮眼 別忘了他被期待長成
Greg Briley, Leon Culbertson, Leon Roberts, and Willard Marshall等級的高手
Petco是個痛苦的所在 黑力在客場表現大大壓過主場
(.218/.305/.355 in 455 PA vs .301/.368/.437 in 546 PA on the road)
即使換守位Petco還是令人同樣痛苦 但不用防撞的內野能讓黑力專注在為球隊增加建設性
The sample is tiny, but so far, Headley has hit a little better when playing
third base (.257/.348/.419 in 158 PA) than when playing left field
(.261/.331/.387 in 812 PA). I would love to point to some study showing that
players who shift positions magically transform into better hitters, but as
far as I know, that issue remains one of baseball's Hilbert problems. In what
promises to be a recurring theme, the Padres and their fans will have to
settle for hope.
黑力在三壘的小樣本三圍也許只小勝左外
(.257/.348/.419 in 158 PA vs.261/ .331/.387 in 812 PA)
但別忘了有研究指出換守位有MAGIC~~~一般的神效
雖然這樣的神效就等於是棒球界的黎曼猜想一樣可能永遠無法證明
但他都穩佔三壘了 教士及球迷們只能乖乖期待神蹟~
How good can Mat Latos be, and when will it happen?
Mat Latos能有多好? 我們得等他多久?
He could be very, very good. It could happen tomorrow. It could never happen.
All of these statements are true, if somewhat less than helpful. On a more
practical level, Latos has upside that the Padres haven't seen in a young
pitcher since Jake Peavy first arrived. Latos works with a mid-90s fastball
and two advanced breaking balls. He is able to locate his pitches and has a
clue.
Latos also is young and inexperienced. His attitude has been questioned at
times, but the same can be said of many people in all walks of life who are
young and inexperienced.
他可以好到冒泡 也許明天爆發 又或者永遠沉睡
這是廢話但也是實話 實際點說 Latos是J. 皮維之後第一個這等級的強投
95邁上下的火球,兩種高級的變化球和相當程度的控球讓他至少知道自己在幹麻
Latos很年輕 沒經驗 態度也欠佳 但每個成名強投也都這樣過
Having pitched fewer than 200 professional innings before reaching the big
leagues, Latos remains a work-in-progress. Because he has options remaining
and some other pitchers who need to be evaluated (Sean Gallagher, Tim
Stauffer) do not, Latos could start the season at Triple-A Portland to buy
himself and the Padres a little time.
上MLB之前只在職業聯盟投不到200局 Latos絕對還能長 由於他還有足夠升降機會
從3A出發能讓他好好長大 也順便讓沒得升降的Sean Gallagher, Tim Stauffer努力看看
Wherever Latos starts the year, unless something goes horribly wrong, he
figures to end it in San Diego. He also figures to be a key member of the
next competitive Padres team. His stuff is top-shelf, but as Jeremy Bonderman
(and perhaps Rick Porcello) has shown us, making the transition from the low
minors to MLB isn't always easy.
除非見鬼了 從哪出發不該影響Latos在球季結束前站穩輪值
他的天份絕對是屋上提琴手的等級
但看看Jeremy Bonderman 跟 (也許)Rick Porcello的前車之鑑
我們也不要抱太大希望 從Low A直升MLB沒那麼簡單低
In his favor, Latos has posted terrific peripheral numbers (10.5 K/9, 4.6
K/BB) down on the farm. On the other hand, that's in the past and he needs to
show what he can do at the highest level on a consistent basis. My suspicion
is that he will succeed, but it's easy to be optimistic about things that
haven't happened yet.
以10.5的K/9 跟 4.6的K/BB看來 Latos是個頂尖高手 但這已經過去了
現在的他必須在更高層級的殿堂證明自己連續屠殺的能力
雖然擔心他會不會成功 但還沒發生的事情總是讓人抱持希望
Can Randy Ready survive the season as hitting coach?
Randy Ready會不會成為打教墳場的悻存者?
Like morning fog and wagonloads of 'Zonies, firing the hitting coach is an
annual rite of summer in San Diego. But are coaches really to blame for the
Padres' offensive woes since moving into Petco Park before the 2004 season?
Well, in that time, the team has had one park and five hitting coaches, so
you tell me which is the constant:
如同朝霧和一車車的'Zonies一樣 火打教已成為教士的夏季盛事
(譯按:Zonie指每年跑到SD海邊衝浪的Arizona人 SD人非常討厭他們 出沒季節只在夏天)
但打教們真的是教士打線問題的重點嗎? 換到Petco之後這支球隊用過5個打教
讓我們瞧瞧04年以來這球場對這些教練做了什麼:
* Dave Magadan: 2003 - June 15, 2006
* Merv Rettenmund: June 16, 2006 - July 31, 2007
* Wally Joyner (he resigned, but still): August 1, 2007 - September 22, 2008
* Jim Lefebvre: November 3, 2008 - July 31, 2009
* Randy Ready: August 1, 2009 - ??
Here's how the Padres have performed under each of these men:
以下則是每個打教手下球員的成績
Overall | Home | Road
BA OBP SLG | BA OBP SLG | BA OBP SLG
Magadan* .263 .335 .401 | .251 .326 .376 | .275 .344 .424
Rettenmund .256 .325 .410 | .242 .315 .388 | .267 .333 .429
Joyner .254 .323 .407 | .242 .319 .380 | .265 .328 .432
Lefebvre .235 .311 .375 | .213 .306 .340 | .254 .316 .407
Ready .257 .338 .391 | .228 .324 .346 | .282 .350 .431
*Petco Park years only
Magadan只看Petco時代
Granted, there are varying sample sizes, but it can't be comforting to
realize that each individual charged with getting Padres hitters to produce
in their home ballpark has done a worse job than his predecessor. In
retrospect, axing Magadan may not have been such a great idea (word is, he's
since experienced a little success in Boston, which by some strange
coincidence has a park that is conducive to offense).
But what's done is done, and now the Padres have Ready, who benefits from the
fact that presumably there isn't much further to fall. He also gets to work
with Kyle Blanks, whose power plays anywhere and who figures to make any
hitting coach look good.
As for whether Ready can last an entire season, that depends on a number of
factors. Actually, it depends on one factor. At some point, the Padres must
accept that Petco Park, where they play half their games every year,
suppresses offense something fierce.
I have no doubt that on a certain level, they are very much aware of this. At
the same time, when different coaches continue to yield similar results,
perhaps it's time to look elsewhere for answers. Superior on-field talent is
a good place to start.
儘管樣本數不一樣多 但看這樣的數據實在令人不舒服
每個新打教都讓打線在主場表現得越來越爛
現在看來砍掉Magadan不是個好主意 (他曾在Boston表現還行 但那很巧的是個打者天堂)
既然木已成舟 這條打線也不能更爛了 就讓我們期待Ready的表現吧
他至少擁有Kyle Blanks的強大炮瓦能讓數據像樣一點
總之Ready能不能撐過夏天還是得看幾個因素 事實上只有一個 (譯按:大概是看輸幾場吧)
教士們得在打者墳場的Petco打81場這是必須面對的現實
我確定球團在某程度上知道這狀況 當打教們表現都一樣爛時
他們也許該換個方式試試 選秀選野手(譯按:也就是指打擊)會是個不錯的開始
Which of the young players is likely to emerge this year?
今年哪個年輕肉體能冒出頭?
Blanks and Latos are the obvious choices. Although they are the best
long-term bets, each comes with risk. Blanks is playing out of position and
battled injury problems toward the end of his rookie season. Latos has very
little professional experience under his belt.
Blanks跟Latos明顯有機會 長期來說他們是好投資但也各有風險
Blanks在新人年不固定的守位跟傷病掙扎是個風險
Latos則是沒有足夠的職業投球經驗
Everth Cabrera? You know what I think about him, but this is a kid who
skipped three levels last year. He's got a lot of talent, but also a lot to
learn. Who knows when he'll put it all together?
Everth Cabrera? 你知道我怎麼想他的 (譯按:作者大概不看好他吧)
但這小子去年跳了三級 (譯按:從A到MLB!!) 無疑地很有天份但也還有得長
誰知道哪時候他才能長成?
The guys I'm looking at to emerge in 2010 are Headley and Will Venable. We've
already discussed the former. As for Venable, because he's already 27 years
old and still not established at the big-league level, he often gets
overlooked or dismissed. For example, our own THT Forecasts put him at
.241/.298/.379 this year. I think he'll beat that OPS by 100 points if he
gets regular playing time (which he should).
我認為一定會跳出的是黑力跟Will Venable 黑力前面講過了
而Venable27歲卻還沒能站穩MLB 讓大家都忘了他的存在
我們家THT Forecasts預測今年他只能打出.241/.298/.379
但我覺得他的OPS一定能狂電預測值100分
前提是教練不腦殘 有給他穩定出場機會
Venable won't be a star, but he is a gifted athlete (he was a standout
basketball player at Princeton, which helps explain his late development) who
has usable baseball skills and he's ready now. Former Padres Vice President
of Scouting and Player Development Grady Fuson is quoted as saying he thought
Venable would be a better big leaguer than minor leaguer, and I'm inclined to
agree.
Venable不會是個明星 但他是個有天份的運動員且具備有用的棒球技術 現在準備好了
(大學時的他在普林斯頓是個傑出的籃球選手 這也解釋了他的棒球生涯的慢熟)
前教士球探部副總裁Grady Fuson曾說Venable會在MLB表現超出小聯盟的自己
我現在傾向同意他的說法
What are the new owners doing? Will they increase payroll at some point, and
can they restore fan interest in San Diego?
新東家在幹麻? 他們會不會提高薪資呢? 他們能不能找回球迷的愛?
The new owners have made a concerted effort to win fans back by reaching out
to them in ways that previous ownership seldom did. For all that John Moores
accomplished while running the Padres (World Series in '98, Petco Park), he
had become decreasingly visible in recent years. This aloofness did not sit
well with San Diegans, who wanted a more active owner that at least gave the
impression of caring about his ballclub. Add in a messy divorce, and voila:
ugly situation.
新東家做了老東家沒做過的試圖贏回球迷的愛:向球迷們貼近
前老闆John Moores拿到98年世界冠軍門票跟弄了Petco後就基本上消失了
這個不在乎的態度讓SD人不太開心 何況他後來還搞了個慘烈的離婚與糗斃了的財務狀況
Jeff Moorad and President and COO Tom Garfinkel have come in and expressed a
commitment to the organization, the fans, and the city. They have made
themselves available to the people and demonstrated a willingness to listen
and improve where possible.
Jeff Moorad and President and COO Tom Garfinkel (譯按:大概是新老闆跟經營者吧?)
出現並展現出誠意 至少他們願意聽取球迷心聲 且試著讓球隊進步
The previous regime had trouble with that aspect of the job. Sandy Alderson,
as brilliant a baseball mind as you'll find, showed little patience for
details that didn't affect the bottom line. He and his group succeeded in
many areas, but never really connected with a fan base that sought a kinder,
gentler leader. San Diegans wanted to be addressed as equals in a
partnership, not as subjects of an oligarchy. That was not the style of
Moores and Alderson, and one got the sense toward the end that ownership and
fans regarded each other as necessary inconveniences.
前經營者有傾聽困難 Sandy Alderson是個聰明的棒球人 經營球隊在各方面都取得成果
只可惜沒有拉近跟球迷的距離 SD人不要當被統治的國民 而想當合夥人
但Moores跟Alderson沒有這想法 等到賣球隊前一刻才懂經營跟球迷互相扶持是必要之重
The new ownership group has made strides in restoring hope among
disillusioned fans. Moorad and Garfinkel have talked a good game, but talk
must be backed up by action. They have taken some small steps in that
direction: lowering the price of beer, changing the start time of weekday
afternoon games, and other cosmetic changes that may not make a difference to
the bottom line but that tell San Diegans, "Hey, we're listening and we're
trying to improve your experience."
新團隊給了失去夢想的球迷希望 Moorad and Garfinkel 構築了好比賽的夢
這個夢必須靠實際行動踏實 目前的步伐雖小但方向正確
降低啤酒價格 更改周間比賽開始時間 以及一些粉飾的調整在在向球迷表達一件事:
"嘿 我們有在聽而且我們想讓你們比賽看得更爽快"
Are such steps necessary? A quick check of the proverbial scoreboard is
revealing:
這些努力重要嗎? 來看一下進場數據怎麼說:
Year Attendance Att/G
2004 3,016,752 37,244
2005 2,869,787 35,429
2006 2,659,757 32,837
2007 2,790,074 34,445
2008 2,427,535 29,970
2009 1,919,603 23,699
In six short years at their beautiful new downtown ballpark, the Padres have
seen attendance plummet from a franchise high to lows last experienced in the
wake of Tom Werner's Infamous Fire Sale and the subsequent labor dispute that
ruined everyone's plans. At that time, when the threat of contraction was Bud
Selig's weapon of choice, the Padres were mentioned as a possible candidate.
六年來在美麗的市區球場Petco 教士們驚覺球迷進場數暴跌
這個跌幅是前前東家Tom Werner的跳樓大拍賣與MLB勞資糾紛以來僅見
那時Bug Selig甚至想過用教士的契約來威脅球員們...
(譯按:這種要怎麼翻....)
If some of us get a little nervous when fan interest wanes around these
parts, it's only because we don't want to see our team moved elsewhere. Not
that this appears to be an immediate concern, but after a very close call in
1974 and vague threats in the mid-'90s (to say nothing of what Selig did to
the Montreal Expos), it's not as far in the back of our minds as we'd like it
to be.
即使我們擔心球迷的愛會因此消逝 那是因為我們不想讓球隊離開SD
也不是說這是個直接的危機 但1974殷鑒不遠 90年代的含混威脅也還忘不了
(Selig怎麼對付博覽會的...我都無言了) 那個風險也還沒遠到我們希望的程度
Sure, there are reasons for the plunge in attendance: The team has been bad
the past couple of years, previous ownership didn't make nice when things
were good, the economy stinks, people stop caring about a shiny new ballpark
when they have other shiny new objects to distract them, etc. That said,
there is no way to spin the numbers in a way that makes them look anything
other than alarming.
當然入場數銳減有很多原因 這球隊最近很鳥 前東家沒趁之前狀況好多開發球迷
經濟狀況爛爆了 當被別的閃亮東西分心時 閃亮亮的新球場不再能吸引目光
(譯按:也就是說有明星能贏球才是王道 球場不重要)
想讓扭轉進場數字的驚人度似乎很困難...
As for payroll, it's going to be low for a while. On the bright side, several
franchises have demonstrated that it's possible to field a competitive
ballclub despite financial limitations. On the not-so-bright side, many fans
regard this fact as propaganda and aren't interested in hearing about it.
What can you do?
至於薪資的部分 看來短期內是高不起來 往好處想:起碼有球隊低薪資也有競爭力
至於不那麼好的方向:球迷們認為低薪資有競爭力只是嘴炮且根本不鳥你的說辭
你能怎辦?
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幹....這篇(尤其是上面這段)實在太難翻了
=======
Bonus question: How much longer will Adrian Gonzalez remain with the Padres?
安可題:A剛還能在這留多久?
Not much longer. Enjoy him while you can and hope he brings something good in
return when the time comes.
沒多久了 享受他還在的時間 並期待時候到來他能換來一些年輕肉體吧
======
這篇真的超級難翻 比起上篇(紅襪那篇) 大概花了四倍的時間吧...
典故多 形容詞多 句子長 又愛用比喻...
數據多 但實際上對現役先發根本沒提幾個字
看樣子今年教士是真的前途黯淡....
虧我還想多去看幾場勒....真傷心Orz
總之翻這篇真的很辛苦...
希望大家看得愉快~~