作者:
watertip (watertip)
2010-04-02 00:30:49http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/five-questions-washington-nationals3/
縮網址: http://ppt.cc/DW-F
The bright side about being a Nats fan is that after this last year—from
"Natinals" to the GM resigning in disgrace to, well, the terrible record—
things have to be looking up. And with Stephen Strasburg looming, they almost
certainly are.
So that leads us to...
當個國民隊的球迷的光明面，就是～在去年總教練狼狽下台、加上那慘到不行的
成績後～什麼事情都只會更好！看看Strasburg的成長，好像真是這麼一回事呢！
讓我們來瞧瞧：
1. What's going to happen to Stephen Strasburg this season?
Strasburg今年球季將有如何的表現？
The Nats have announced—rightly—that their phenom is going to begin the
year in the minors. If you're a lucky fan of the Altoona Curve, you'll be
able to catch his first minor league start on April 11.
國民隊已經宣布要讓這位耀眼的新星從小聯盟出發，如果你很幸運的恰巧是
Altoona Curve的球迷，那你可以在4/11看到他小聯盟的第一次先發。
Was sending him down the right decision? Almost certainly. Does it kind of
stink for Nats' fans? Sort of.
He was the team's best pitcher in the spring. He's clearly got the stuff to
hang with major league batters. Despite that, there's a legitimate argument
to be made that sending him down to work on a few things would be beneficial.
把Strasburg放在小聯盟是正確的嗎？幾乎可以肯定是；球迷會不爽嗎？大概吧～
他是春訓中表現最好的投手，也有足夠的條件來面對大聯盟的打者，然而除此之外，
放他下去有很合理的理由，也就是在某些方面將帶來更大的好處。
But we all know it's the off-the-field stuff that's driving this. First,
keeping him down a few weeks gives the team an extra year of control. It's
far better to have a fully developed Strasburg in 2016 than a still-learning
one toiling for a should-be last-place team in 2010. Second, it's about the
money.
While the contract that Strasburg signed reduces the temptation for the team
to game the system a bit, keeping him down still means millions more saved in
the future. As the Washington Post's Dave Sheinin lays out, keeping him down
is the difference between three years of arbitration salaries or four.
Translation: it could mean a minimum of $15 million for the Nats.
大家都知道，這並非球場上表現的問題。首先在小聯盟多放幾週可以讓球團多控制
他一年。擁有2016年完全成熟的小史、或2010年用生澀的球技在極可能墊底的球隊
中掙扎...這兩者做比較，選擇應該很明顯吧！其次，就是錢的問題了
小史的合約中已經稍微避免了球團操弄制度的可能，不過在小聯盟中多放幾個禮拜
還是能為球團在未來省下幾百萬美金。Washington Post 的 Dave Sheinin 推算過，
這將是3或4年薪資仲裁的差異，這一年的差異至少代表1500萬美金。
So Strasburg's not likely to make the majors until June, and Nats fans are
getting excited, even the casual ones waiting around for the team to just do
something interesting.
In the end, Strasburg will likely get 15 or so starts in the majors. And if
he's anything less than 15-0 with 165 strikeouts, it'll be a major
disappointment.
所以6月前應該不會在大聯盟的賽事中看到他，不過即便是那些等待球團振作等的
不耐煩的球迷，也都興奮起來了。
Strasburg應該會在大聯盟有15次的先發機會。搞到最後，如果沒有拿到15-0的成
績外加165次三振，球迷大概會失望吧～
2. Is Ryan Zimmerman really a superstar?
Zimmerman 真的是超級巨星嗎？
Last year, you could've made an argument that Ryan Zimmerman was an MVP
contender. Sure, he wasn't really Pujols, but without straining yourself, you
could've made an argument that he was the next best player in the National
League. The shorthand version of that argument: his Silver Slugger and Gold
Glove. Few players in the game put up such great numbers at both facets of
the game.
去年，你可能會認為Zimmerman是MVP的熱門候選人。當然，他不是Pujols，不過若
你要認為他是國聯僅次Pujols的打者，那也無傷大雅。簡言之：銀棒獎、金手套。
守備跟打擊一樣出色的選手，這的確很少。
Defensively, there probably aren't any third basemen with better instincts
and range. The only knock on him defensively is his errors. When he has too
much time, he tends to take an extra look at the ball, throwing off his
timing: his footwork goes astray, and the ball whips past the first baseman
for an error. If he could halve those throwing errors, he'd simply be the
best.
守備方面，幾乎可以說擁有最佳的守備範圍跟反應能力，硬要挑缺點的話，大概是
失誤吧。當傳球時間充裕的時候，他可能會多看球一眼，有時候就擾亂了節奏，打
亂了腳步，偶爾會出現傳過頭的失誤。如果能減少傳球的失誤，他毫無疑問就是最
棒的。
But it's the bat that took a huge step forward. And whenever that happens,
everyone runs to BABIP to explain it. Not in this case. His .310 is right in
line with his career numbers. What improved was his eye and his health.
He bested his career high in walks by 11, and his overall rate crept up to
10.4 percent. We'll chalk that up to Adam Dunn's influence.
But it's really his health that made the biggest difference. He was coming
off seasons ruined by a frayed shoulder and a hamate bone removal. Both
likely affected his swing, especially his power. With rest and rehab, he
finally showed what he was capable of.
Maybe expecting a pure repeat of last year's offensive performance isn't
realistic. But even if he drops a few ticks in slugging, he's still among the
most valuable players in the league.
打擊方面則有驚人的進步，一般上人們喜歡用 BABIP 來解釋，不過這不適用在他
身上。 .310的打擊率與生涯水準差不多，真正造成進步的原因是視力跟健康。
保送次數比生涯平均還多了11次，整體而言，保送率也多了10.4個百分點，或許
可以歸因於 Dunn 的影響吧。
不過說真的，健康才是進步的主要原因。更前一年他受困於肩膀的傷勢跟鉤骨移除
手術，這都會影響他的打擊，特別是擊球的力量。在休息跟復健後，我們可以說，
去年的表現才是真正 Zimmerman 的水準。
或許期望能複製去年的打擊成績有點不切實際，不過即使打擊成績掉了一些，仍然是
MVP的等級。
3. What does the bullpen look like?
今年的牛棚將會是...？
One of the reasons last year's Nats did so terribly compared to their
Pythagorean record was their terrible bullpen.
用 Pythagorean record 來看得失分的比例，我們大概可以知道去年那令人崩潰
的成績，其中一個原因就是因為有著令人崩潰的牛棚...
After starting out 0-7, the Nats won one before starting a three-game series
with the Marlins.
Game one: Joel Hanrahan gives up a homer in the ninth that tied the game at
two before Saul Rivera gave up an RBI single in the 10th in a 3-2 loss.
Game two: Hanrahan gave up three runs in the ninth, including two on a Jeremy
Hermida homer, (he later hit a three-run bomb) on the way to a 9-6 loss.
Game three: Rivera, who had failed in the first game, tried for the one-run
save, instead giving up an RBI double followed by a bases-clearing double in
what turned into a 7-4 loss.
Three games, three blown saves. That was a microcosm. But it wasn't quite
rock bottom, because the Nats' pitchers kept finding new and interesting ways
to lose.
開季壯烈的7連敗後，總算在對上 Marlins 的三連戰前止敗，讓我們瞧瞧這三場：
Game 1: Hanrahan在第九局被擊出追平比數全壘打，Saul Rivera 接著在第10局被
打出一分打點安打，最終3:2輸球。
Game 2: Hanrahan在第九局又送出3分，包括Hermida的兩分全壘打（他後來又幹了
一支3分炮），9:6輸球。
Game 3: 第一場BS的 Rivera ，在一分差的情況下上場。這次是先送上1分打點的
二壘安打，再送上一個清壘的二壘安打，最後7:4輸球。
三場比賽通通砸鍋，這就是整年度的縮影。不過這還不是最慘的呢，國民隊的投手
群總是不斷的找出新奇又有趣的方式輸球，隨時提供你想像不到的娛樂饗宴。
So the Nats kicked most of those stiffs out, and they're coming into 2010
with a bullpen led by Matt Capps, he of the 5.80 ERA and 4.90 FIP, Sean
Burnett, he of the -0.1 WAR, and Brian Bruney, he of the career 6.22 BB/9.
Cherry-picking, of course. But the larger point remains. These guys aren't
very good.
But even not very good is going to be better than last year. Even if you
don't like ERA, especially in evaluating relievers, the 5.09 bullpen ERA or
the 5.71 ERA in save situations paints a thorough enough picture.
可以想見的是這些傢伙幾乎都被掃地出門了，瞧瞧今年吧！Matt Capps，5.80 ERA
以及 4.90 FIP；Sean Burnett，有著WAR -0.1 的成績；Brian Bruney，生涯平均
每九局投出6.22個保送。當然，這已經市場上的最佳選擇了，問題還是一樣，這些
人怎麼看都不太行阿～
不過爛到極點也是有好處的，那就是很容易進步...不管你是如何的討厭ERA這項數
據，如何的討厭用ERA來評價後援投手，牛棚平均 ERA 5.09，或是領先時上場救援
那高達 5.71 的 ERA，這已經說明了一切...
Along with a change in arms, a change in management might help here. Manny
Acta never really seemed to grasp how to use the guys he had. Notably, on
opening day last year, he brought Rivera in to face Ryan Howard, even with at
least two lefties sitting in the pen. His explanation? Saul was his "seventh
inning guy." A big homer later, and the game was over.
While there wasn't much talent to mine from those arms, Acta consistently
seemed to find ways to use the talent in the worst possible way.
So while Capps, Bruney and Burnett aren't going to make anyone miss the Nasty
Boys, there's hope for some marginal improvement here.
隨著換上新鮮的手臂，換換教練的腦袋可能更有用。Manny Acta 好像從來都不知道
該怎麼用他的子弟兵。大家可能還記得，在開幕戰的時候，即便還有兩個左手牛，他
也硬是讓 Rivera 去面對 Ryan Howard。對此，他的解釋是 "左手的 Saul 是投第七
局的啦～" 結局就是目送著球飛出全壘打牆外，含恨輸球。
這些牛棚新兵中，筆者認為都不是什麼好貨色，不過讓我們看看神奇的 Acta 還能想
出什麼新奇又惡搞的玩法吧。
Capps, Bruney 和 Burnett 應該都不會有什麼好表現，不過進步個一咪咪總是可以
期待吧？
4. How loud will the clanks off Adam Dunn's glove be?
Adam Dunn 的守備到底行不行？
The guy that everyone wants to be a DH has found a home at first base.
大家都想要他去當 DH ，不過他好像當一壘手當上癮了。
We know he's not going to be a great first baseman, but everyone likes to
point at his terrible UZR numbers (-25 per 150 games last year) to say he's
the next Dick Stuart. Maybe he is. Maybe he isn't. But half a season's worth
of UZR, even when combined with fractions of seasons before it aren't really
enough to tell.
Piecing together those partial seasons and drawing a conclusion from them
makes no more sense than picking out a batter's statline in April and August
and drawing conclusions from that.
我們都知道他不是個好的一壘手，大家喜歡批評他那糟糕的 UZR 守備數據 （在150
場比賽中多丟掉25分），還說他將是下一個 Dick Stuart，或許吧！不過只有半季，
即便把之前的場次也加進來，真要下什麼結論也還不夠充分。把幾個零星球季的數據
拼湊在一起然後下結論，這樣跟光看打者四月跟八月的打擊成績有什麼兩樣呢？
Nats fans have seen some truly horrid first base defense, including a
morbidly obese Dmitri Young and a short-armed Ronnie Belliard. Anyone who
watched Dunn regularly at first didn't see someone as terrible as those guys.
Dunn's not going to have great range, but he's a great target. With his size,
if he can figure out the footwork around the bag, he'll cut down on bad
throws, something that's not necessarily captured by UZR. I have zero belief
that he'll be a good first baseman, but it's hard to believe that someone
with his size and athleticism would be the absolute worst in the league.
If he shows he's only costing the team five to 10 runs at first, he's a
valuable player.
不過國民隊的球迷應該真的覺得一壘的守備很抖，尤其是幾乎病態肥胖的 Dmitri
Young 及手短的Ronnie Belliard。而在 Dunn 守備的時候，至少球迷可以比上面那
兩位安心多了。
Dunn 的守備範圍不會再進步了，不過他的身體倒是不錯的檔球工具。看那巨大的身
軀，如果他能在想想怎麼檔球，搞不好一些誤傳的球都能檔下，這可是UZR看不出來
的呢！當然，我一點都不相信他會是好的一壘手，不過以他的體型跟運動能力，要說
他是全聯盟最糟的，這怎麼想都不太可能。
如果他能證明他站一壘最多只會讓球隊多失去5~10分，那 Dunn 就很有價值了。
5. How important is a good showing this season?
打出亮眼的一季有多重要呢？
With everything that's gone on to this team—much of it self-inflicted—the
answer is "very." Nobody's expecting a pennant winner, or even really a .500
team. But they absolutely cannot afford to have another 100-loss team. There
are plenty of casual baseball fans who just want to cheer for a decent team,
but they've had absolutely nothing to root for, at least since September '05.
看看這個球隊過去的一切（大部分還都是自找的），答案是：非常重要！沒有人真的
期望一個冠軍戒指、或勝率五成的隊伍，不過也沒有人能忍受再來一次100敗！有很多
游離的球迷，他們只是希望有個還不賴的隊伍讓他們加油吶喊一下，不過在國民隊的
身上還真找不到一絲絲支持的理由，至少在05年9月之後。
The Washington Capitals are Cup contenders. The Washington Redskins are
always the dominant force in town, and after a few years of futility, they
finally have adults in place making football decisions. There's a lot of
competition for the sports dollar and rooting time. And so far, the Nats have
given no reason for most people to care.
Washington Capitals是史坦利盃的奪冠熱門隊伍，Washington Redskins也是美式
足球的勁旅，在幾年的掙扎後也算有點成績。在各種運動中，彼此也要競爭收入以
及球迷的心，不過到目前為止，國民隊還真找不出什麼理由讓大家多看一眼。
75 wins isn't going to make anyone stand and cheer. But it would be a step
forward. They could go into the off-season, talking about the 15-win
improvement they had. They could point to Ryan Zimmerman, Stephen Strasburg,
John Lannan, Drew Storen and Jordan Zimmermann as the core of a potential
championship contender