Five Questions: Cleveland Indians
by Ryan Richards
March 17, 2010
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/five-questions-cleveland-indians5/
It’s been a turbulent 12 months since last spring. The team went from a club
weakened but still capable of competing for a division crown to one that has
no pretense of doing so. The Indians have replaced their manager, traded
several core players, and announced a front office reorganization to boot.
從去年春天以來, 這12個月是動盪混亂的.
CLE 從一支軟弱但仍能競爭分區王座的球隊, 變成連競爭力也沒了.
球隊已經換掉教練、交易幾個核心球員, 並宣布重組制服組再出發.
If the Indians aren’t going anywhere, what’s the goal this season?
如果Indians一事無成, 那本賽季的目標是啥?
Some of the moves (replacing Eric Wedge) came almost as a relief, while
others (the trades of Cliff Lee and Victor Martinez) were expected, probably
necessary, but all the same excruciating to a fan base that’s been let down
regularly. That’s why this season’s success rests only indirectly on wins
and losses. Because unless the casual fan is re-energized, it will be
difficult to build on any on-field improvement. Ownership seems to be
unwilling to get out in front of fan interest, so ticket sales will need to
drive payroll, not vice versa.
一些變動 (換掉Eric Wedge) 幾乎是一種解脫, 而其他事 (交易 Cliff
Lee & Victor Martinez)是預期且可能必須的, 但對經常失望的球迷們而言,
都是同等痛苦. 這就是為什麼本賽季的成功只間接地建立在勝負. 因為除非
看熱鬧的球迷重新進場, 否則(成功)將難以建立在球場上的任何進步.
球隊老闆Larry Dolan似乎不願意拋開球迷支持度的侷限花錢, 所以團隊薪資
多少只能由門票收入決定, 而不是相反.
For the casual fan to regain interest in the Indians, and not treat the club
as a passing diversion between LeBron in the spring and the Browns in the
fall, the club will need to show tangible improvement over the course of the
season. Right now, it’s hard to identify what specific steps the Indians
need to take to compete for the division, but by the end of the season, those
steps should not only be identifiable but easily obtainable. Do that, and
interest will return, along with the all-important season ticket sales.
要讓看熱鬧的球迷重新對 Indians獲得興趣, 而不是把球隊當作春天 LeBron
與秋天 Browns之間的過渡消遣, 球隊需隨著賽季進行, 展示出確實的進步.
目前, 很難確定 Indians需要採取哪些具體步驟, 才能角逐分區; 但球季尾聲時,
這些事情不僅將可確認、且容易達成. 這樣做, 球迷的興趣與非常重要的季票銷售,
才會回來.
What’s the biggest problem area on this team?
這個球隊哪方面問題最大?
By this time next year, the Indians will have taken a big step forward if
they have only a couple spots in the rotation to fill, instead of having to
fill the entire rotation. In other words, it would be nice to reasonably
expect three starting pitchers to pitch at least 180 innings, make 28-30
starts, and a roughly league-average ERA. I don’t expect any Indians starter
to accomplish that this season for a variety of reasons including a lack of
2009 innings, a lack of big-league experience or major mechanical flaws.
到明年這個時候, Indians將已前進了一大步; 如果他們只要填滿兩個位置,
而不必填滿整個輪值. 換言之, 這是合理預期三個 SP至少各180局、28~30次
先發及接近聯盟平均值的 ERA. 基於各種原因, 包括 2009年局數不足、缺乏
大聯盟經驗或重大機制的缺陷, 我不期待 Indians任一SP在本賽季能達到標準.
The absence of starting pitching throughout the organization was what largely
led to last year’s mid-season trades of Lee and Martinez, and while the
Indians now have some depth thanks to those deals, they don’t yet have a
credible rotation. The three pitchers who are expected to head the staff
(Jake Westbrook, Justin Masterson, and Fausto Carmona) all have serious
flaws, and in most rotations would be classified as back-end projects.
Westbrook hasn’t thrown a pitch in the majors in almost two seasons, Carmona
was a disaster in 2009, and Masterson is still transitioning from the
bullpen. Again, that’s the top of the rotation.
基本上因為整個組織缺乏SP, 所以去年賽季中交易了 Lee & Martinez,
現在Indians有些深度是來自這些交易, 但還是沒有一個可靠的輪值.
領銜主演的三大投手 (Jake Westbrook, Justin Masterson, & Fausto Carmona)
都存在嚴重缺陷, 而且在大多數輪值會被歸類為四五號之流.
Westbrook近兩個賽季沒在MLB投過球, Carmona是2009年的一場災難, 而Masterson
仍從牛棚過渡中. 再說一次, 這就是輪值的主角群.
At the bottom of the rotation are several pitchers working their way into the
majors. Aaron Laffey, David Huff, and Mitch Talbot are the three frontrunners
for the final two spots, though Talbot has a procedural advantage because he’
s out of options. Laffey is the most accomplished major-leaguer of the bunch
and was the best pitcher on the staff after Cliff Lee was dealt. Huff racked
up the most innings of the returning pitchers, and though he stuck around
mainly through a lack of other credible or even quasi-credible rotation
options, did show improvement as the season wore down. Talbot came over from
Tampa for Kelly Shoppach this winter, and should make the team if he has a
competent end to the exhibition season. He hasn’t pitched in the majors
since the end of the 2008 season, and spent much of the 2009 campaign coming
back from an elbow injury, though his career minor-league stats are promising
enough to justify a shot.
在輪值擔任配角的是各自努力升上MLB的幾個投手, Aaron Laffey,
David Huff & Mitch Talbot是競爭最後兩席的三個熱門人選; 雖然 Talbot
有程序優勢, 因為他的option用完了. Laffey是其中MLB等級完成度最高的,
也是Cliff Lee被交易後最佳的投手. Huff累計局數最多, 儘管他不上不下的
主因是缺乏其他可靠的、甚至接近可靠的輪值選擇; 然隨著賽季進行, 他明顯
進步了. Talbot來自冬天將 Kelly Shoppach交易給Tampa, 如果他春訓投得不錯,
應能進入25人名單. 自2008年賽季結束後, 他沒有在MLB投球過, 並用了
2009年來復原肘傷; 不過他的職業生涯小聯盟數據不錯, 值得一試.
What about the other part of run prevention: defense?
至於減少失分的其他部分-"防守"呢?
Depending on who makes the club, the Indians could start the season with a
rotation full of groundball pitchers, so the range of the infielders will
play a key role. The Indians, though, return three starting infielders
(Asdrubal Cabrera, Luis Valbuena, and Jhonny Peralta) with negative 2009
UZRs. Cabrera and Peralta’s jobs are safe, but Valbuena could lose playing
time when one of the more extreme groundballers is on the mound.
這要看誰組成輪值, Indians可以用一個滿是滾地球投手的輪值開始球季,
此時內野手的(防守)範圍將是關鍵. 不過, Indians內野手 (Asdrubal Cabrera,
Luis Valbuena, & Jhonny Peralta) 的2009 UZR評比都是負的.
Cabrera & Peralta處境安全, 但任一較極端的滾地球投手站在投手丘時,
Valbuena可能就失去上場時間.
The outfield seems a much better defensive group. Grady Sizemore has
excellent range and a poor arm in center, while right fielder Shin-Soo Choo
has decent range and an excellent arm. Depending on the health of Russell
Branyan, either Matt LaPorta or Michael Brantley will be patrolling left
field, with Brantley being the better fielder.
外野似乎是較好的防守組. 中外野的弱臂Grady Sizemore具有良好範圍,
而右外野的秋信守已有不錯的範圍、良好臂力. 根據Russell Branyan的
健康狀況, Matt LaPorta 或 Michael Brantley將不時巡邏左外野,
而Brantley是(防守)較佳的野手.
So with a young, shaky, groundball-throwing starting rotation pitching in
front of an infield that’s not likely to cover much ground, run prevention
is going to be a major problem with this team.
因此, 不大可能守住太多滾地球的內野陣容, 面對一個年輕、不穩定的、
充滿滾地球的先發輪值, 如何減少失分將是這支球隊的一大問題.
Is the lineup good enough to make up for the pitching?
那打擊陣容可否彌補投手缺陷呢?
Not even close, though the offense should rank among the best in the league.
The Indians potentially have a very nice core of offensive players, led by
Sizemore, Cabrera, and Choo. All three are threats at the plate and on the
base paths, with Cabrera lagging a bit behind the other two in the power
department. Sizemore played with an injured elbow most of last year, and a
clean bill of health should mean another 30-30 season. Choo had a fantastic
offensive season in 2009 (.300/.394/.489, 21-for-23 in stolen base attempts)
which was largely ignored because of how poorly the team played. Cabrera was
the other pleasant surprise; he solved right-handed pitchers, his previous
weakness, and did everything but hit home runs.
差得遠勒, 雖然進攻打線應該排得上聯盟最佳之一.
Indians的Sizemore、Cabrera、秋, 三人可能只有一個會打傳統認定的中心棒次.
這三人站在打擊區與壘包間都有威脅性, 雖然Cabrera的power略弱於其他兩者.
Sizemore去年大部分時間手肘受傷; 有健康證明的話, 本季該要有30-30吧.
秋在2009年有一個夢幻般的進攻數據 (.300/.394/.489, 21-23盜壘嘗試),
然球隊戰績很糟糕, 多半就被無視了.
Cabrera是另一個驚喜, 他克服以往面對右投手的弱點, 攻守俱佳... 除了全壘打.
The supporting cast is also good. Branyan and Travis Hafner, if healthy, will
give the lineup traditional power threats. Valbuena has surprising power for
a player of his build. And LaPorta and Brantley, promising prospects received
for CC Sabathia in 2008, should both get regular at-bats for the first time.
Brantley gives the lineup another base stealer, though he’ll either have to
hit for power or rack up the walks to stick around as a left fielder. LaPorta
is a more typical corner outfield prospect, a power hitter with a very quick
bat. Catching prospect Carlos Santana, when he’s ready defensively, will
contribute with the bat right away
打線的配角陣容也很好.
Branyan & Travis Hafner, 如果健康, 將使陣容維持既有的power.
以Valbuena的身材來說, 有著讓人意外的的power.
LaPorta & Brantley, 2008年用CC Sabathia換來的兩位潛力新秀,
都應該得到首季穩定的上場時間.
Brantley可以讓這個打線多一個能盜壘的人, 不過他必須要有長打或凹到大量保送,
才能留在大聯盟守左外野.
LaPorta是較典型的角落外野新秀, 有著快速揮棒的強力打者.
捕手新秀Carlos Santana, 當他做好防守功課時, 就能做出立即的貢獻.
What happened to Jhonny Peralta, and what are the Indians going to do with
him?
Jhonny Peralta怎麼了? Indians將如何處理呢？
It had been several years since the Peralta-to-third calls began, but with
the emergence of Asdrubal Cabrera, the time was right to make the move last
season. Jhonny wasn’t happy with the position change, and even this spring
still thinks himself a shortstop. But the major problem right now is his
offense; he hit .254/.316/.375 in 2009, an anemic batting line for just about
any position. Instead of hitting line-drive extra-base hits the other way,
Peralta hit more pulled ground balls than in past seasons. His 11 home runs
were his lowest full-season total in his career. He’s coming into the last
guaranteed season on his contract, and though it would make sense to deal him
in July, a third baseman who isn’t hitting for power is a poor trade chip.
In a perfect world, Peralta will rebound, allowing the Indians to trade him
for a couple of prospects at the deadline and give prospect Lonnie Chisenhall
some at-bats in August and September.
這幾年一直有Peralta何不守三壘的聲音, 隨著Asdrubal Cabrera出現,
上個賽季終是做出改變的正確時間. Jhonny不滿守備位置變動, 甚至在
今年春天仍然認為自己守游擊. 但現在主要問題是他的打擊, 2009年
.254/.316/.375, 不管任何位置都是貧血無力的打擊數據. 相對於擊出
平飛長打的其他方式, Peralta拉打出現了比以前更多的滾地球. 他的
11支HR是職業生涯裡整季的最低值. 他已經進入合約保障的最後一季,
在7月處理他是合理的, 沒有power的三壘手是次級交易籌碼.
理想狀況下, Peralta會反彈, 讓Indians在期限時換來一些新秀, 並讓
Lonnie Chisenhall在八九月有上場機會.
Ryan Richards runs Let's Go Tribe, a Cleveland Indians blog, and can be
reached via e-mail.
Let's Go Tribe http://www.letsgotribe.com/
Ryan Richards indians@gmail.com