1. Was 2009 a fluke season for Cole Hamels?
對於Cole Hamels來說 2009年是否只是單純運氣不佳的一季？
Yes, mostly due to their batting averages on balls in play (BABIP).
Pitchers have very little control over their BABIP, so it normally hovers around .300.
In 2008, when Cole Hamels was brilliant, his BABIP was .270. Last year, it was .325.
An increase of .055 is a lot!
答案是肯定的,原因則是在於他的BABIP. 投手們並無法去掌控自己的BABIP,
所以大部分投手大概都落在3成左右.在2008球季,Cole Hamels的BABIP是2成7,
去年,這個數字則大幅成長到3成25.
There were 581 balls put in play against Hamels in '09.
If hitters batted .300 instead of .325, they get 174 hits instead of 189.
64.5 percent of the hits Hamels allowed were singles,
21.5 percent were doubles, 2.5 percent were triples,
and 11.5 percent were home runs.
If we assume the same distribution of hits,
then Hamels would have given up nine fewer singles,
three fewer doubles, one fewer triple, and two fewer home runs.
In other words, opposing hitters' SLG would drop from .440 to .406 and their
OBP would drop from .315 to .296.
去年,Hamels總共有581個投球被擊在場內.若他的BABIP為0.3而非0.325,
則他的被安打數會從189降為174.
在Hamels被擊出的安打裡面,有64.5%為一壘安打, 21.5%為二壘安打, 2.5%為三壘安打, 11.5%為全壘打.
假如我們套用這個數據在剛才的假設上,
則Hamels會被少敲出9隻一壘安打,3隻二壘安打,1隻三壘安打和2隻全壘打.
換句話說,去年對手的SLG會從0.44降為0.406, 而OBP會從0.315降為0.296.
Overall, Hamels was the same pitcher last year as he was in 2008.
His FIP was 3.72 in both years; xFIP only had him 0.06 worse in '09;
tRA thought he was .014 better last year.
總體來說,Hamels去年的表現和2008年一樣.
FIP都是3.72, xFIP僅小幅的衰退了0.06, 而tRA則是進步了0.014.
His strikeouts and walks stayed at the same level. So did his batted ball splits.
他的三振與保送的數據維持平盤. 被擊球的分布也差不多(平飛,高飛,滾地).
And, finally, Hamels was actually more consistent with his release points.
事實上,他投球時的放球點甚至越來越穩定.
If I was a betting man, I would bet that Hamels has a bounce-back 2010 season.
假如我是雨刷,我賭他在2010球季一定會觸底反彈.
2. Why didn't GM Ruben Amaro keep Cliff Lee?
為什麼GM Ruben Amaro不留住Cliff Lee?
Fans salivated at the thought of having Roy Halladay,
Cliff Lee and Hamels in the same starting rotation.
Opposing managers cringed at the thought of facing all three consecutively in the playoffs.
Yes, it would have been nice to have all three wearing a Phillies uniform in 2010.
曾經,費城的球迷對有著Doc, 小李飛刀和黑魔使的先發輪值留口水.
他隊GM則對於需要在季後賽面對連續三名強投的想法感到不安.
當然,若上述三位投手在2010球季都能穿上Phillies的球衣的確是美事一件.
Jimmy Rollins: Drafted in the 2nd round in 1996
Jimmy Rollins: 1996年第2輪
Ryan Madson: Drafted in the 9th round in 1998
Ryan Madson: 1998年第9輪
Chase Utley: Drafted 15th overall in 2000
Chase Utley: 2000年第15順位
Ryan Howard: Drafted in the 5th round in 2001
猴兒: 2001年第5輪
Cole Hamels: Drafted 17th overall in 2002
黑魔使: 2002年第17順位
J.A. Happ: Drafted in the 3rd round in 2004
黑皮: 2004年第3輪
The Phillies organization has drafted remarkably well and built around a core of home-grown players.
Partially resulting from the Cliff Lee trade last year,
and partially due to having lower draft picks due to their recent success,
the Phillies' minor league system has fallen into the bottom-third
of the league according to most rankings.
Emptying what's left in the farm for one year of Lee would have been devastating to the Phillies beyond 2012.
在過去幾年,費城人在選秀方面取的驚人的成功並以這些球員為核心打造了一支具有競爭力的隊伍.
但在近年出色的戰績以及小李飛刀的交易案背後,
費成人的農場已經在最近的排名落到全聯盟倒數第三.
為了多留小李飛刀一年而將農場一掃而空的作法將會對2012年後的費城人具有破壞性的影響.
Essentially swapping Lee for Halladay allowed
the Phillies to keep some prospects that will be able to fill in
as the current group of Phillies dwindles while also signing
one of the best pitchers in baseball to a multi-year contract extension.
基本上將小李飛刀換成Doc對於費城來說不僅可以保住為數不多的農場新秀,
以使的球隊的未來不致於大受影響,更可以用複數年合約綁住目前大聯盟中最好的投手.
Phillies fans will curse Amaro if the Phillies fail to win the World Series in 2010,
but they will be thanking him by 2013. His job is not just to put a competitive team on the field this year,
but to ensure that he will be able to do the same in '11, and '12, and '13, and so on.
假如費城人再度於2010的WS中鍛羽而歸,費城球迷的砲口將會指向GM Amaro(編案：我也是!!)
但到了2013年,這些球迷將會感謝Amaro當初的決定.
因為他的工作不僅僅只是在2010年打造一支具有競爭力的球隊,
他也要能夠確保費城人在2011, 12, 13甚至未來都能夠複製一模一樣的成績.
3.How good has the running game been, and will it continue to improve?
費城人已經很快了,而他們能夠更快嘛？
With first base coach Davey Lopes,
the Phillies' base runners have been historically great.
In 2007, Lopes' first year on the job,
the Phillies stole bases at an 88 percent success rate,
setting an all-time Major League record.
In '08 and '09, their success rates were 84 percent and 81 percent, respectively.
From 2007-09, the Phillies were the most efficient baseball team in terms of stealing bases.
在一壘指導教練Davey Lopes的帶領下,
費城人的球員在跑壘方面有著顯著的好成績.
在2007年, 也就是Lopes走馬上任的第一年,
費城人的盜壘成功率是至今仍為大聯盟記錄的88%.
而在2008及2009年,他們的盜壘成功率分別為84%和81%.
從2007年到2009年, 費城是全大聯盟盜壘最有效率的隊伍.
The team has also become more aggressive under Lopes.
In the three years prior to his hiring, 2004-06,
the Phillies were just in the top half to top one-third
in the majors in terms of base-stealing aggressiveness(attempts to steal).
With Lopes, from '07-09,
the Phillies have been in the top one-fourth to one-sixth.
這隻球隊在Lopes的指導下越來越有侵略性.
在他之前(2004-06),
費城在嘗試盜壘的數據上頂多只能排到全聯盟的前半或是前三分之一.
而從07年開始一直到今天,費城已經在這項數據上排到全聯盟的前四分之一.
While it is obvious that Lopes has made his runners
attempt to steal second more often,
he has also done the same at third base.
Phillies runners have become more aggressive trying to steal third base.
Lopes不僅僅只是讓他的球員們多嘗試盜二壘而已.
在他的要求下,現在費城的球員更義無反顧的往三壘衝.
It isn't just blind aggression, either.
From 2007-09, the Phillies successfully stole third base
85 percent, 89 percent, and 72 percent respectively,
well above the 75 percent break-even point in two out of the three years.
但盜三壘對於他們來說卻不是個盲目的行為.
從2007到09, 費城人盜三壘的成功率分別為85%, 89%和72%.
(下面這句小弟不才實在翻不出來..)
In 2010, the same group of runners