Five questions: Cincinnati Reds
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/five-questions-cincinnati-reds3/
The Reds in 2009 corrected a longstanding problem of being a poor to
downright awful fielding team by becoming one of the 2-3 best fielding teams
in the majors. Unfortunately, that explosion in fielding talent was
accompanied by an implosion in hitting talent.
As a result, the Reds had their ninth consecutive losing season.
Can they avoid a 10th? It probably all comes down to a few key players.
09球季的紅人隊修正了長期以來在防守端的糟糕表現，
不幸的是伴隨著防守端成長的卻是在打擊表現方面的不盡人意,
也使得紅人連續第九季無法進入季後賽.
他們能夠避免此難堪紀錄邁向雙位數嗎？關鍵將取決於以下幾位球員
Jay Bruce: Barry Bonds, or Wily Mo Pena?
According to Baseball Reference, Jay Bruce's most similar batters through age
22 are Barry Bonds and Wily Mo Pena, both with a score of 965. In the case of
Bonds, even before the PEDs, we have one of the greatest players ever to play
the game. With Pena, we have a player who showed excellent power, but never
solved his problems with contact and low walk rates. Which will Bruce be?
根據BP的統計分析，Jay Bruce至22歲的成長曲線有望長成下一個BB爺或是....
Willy Mo Pena
前者在禁藥風波前或許是我們在棒球場上所擁有的最佳球員，
Pena則曾經展現出優秀的長打能力，卻從未解決過其無法揮中球及低落的保送率等問題，
那麼未來的周董呢？
Last year, he looked more like Wily Mo. He slugged 22 homers in 387 plate
appearances, but hit just .223/.303/.470. Many will point to his low BABIP
last year (.221) and say it was all due to bad luck. I'm not so sure. The
biggest concern I have is that his line drive rate was also miserably low
last year (13 percent, down from 21 percent in 2009). While line drives may
be a subjective measure, they are also a stable statistic for hitters. My
worry is that it's part of a failure to wait for good pitches; only 46
percent of Bruce's pitches were in the strike zone last year, down from 48
percent the year before (the major league average is 51 percent).
上個球季,儘管在387個打席中夯了22隻全壘打，但.223/.303/.470的打擊三圍則讓
Jay Bruce的發展顯得Willy Mo Pena化，
大多數分析將其歸因於低到不行的BABIP(.221)以及壞運氣
但我對其的最大質疑則來自Bruce在擊出飛球比率上的衰退(21%->13%)，這讓我擔心
Jay在設定好球帶的攻擊上是否出了問題
(前年為48%,去年降為46%,大聯盟打者的平均則是51%)
On the other hand, there are lots of positive signs that make me want to
drink the Jay Bruce Kool-Aid. Bruce's O-Swing percentage improved by four
points last year, indicating that his ability to lay off pitches out of the
zone has improved. His strikeout rate was down, and his walk rate was up. His
ISO was up 50 points to .246. His fielding seemed improved, receiving strong
marks from both the Fans and objective measures like UZR. And, while his
monstrous production upon his return from injury in September (.326/.426/.652
in 54 PAs) is probably irrelevant due to the sample size, he talked a lot
upon returning about using the time to clear his head after a truly miserable
June and July in which he wOBA'd less than .300.
另一方面,我們仍有足夠的正面數據來繼續對Jay Bruce的未來發展有所期待(註1)
1.O-Swing率在09球季提升了四個百分點
2.三振率下降及被保送率增加
3.ISO在上個球季提升到.246 防守上的改善亦可從UZR等防守數據上清楚顯現
當然Jay Bruce去年九月傷癒歸隊後,在小樣本內的驚人表現(.323/.426/.652 in 54 PAs)
亦讓人對其手術的成功及擺脫六、七月的低潮帶來信心
Bruce, a former No. 1 overall prospect, has all the talent in the world. But
if the Reds are going to contend, they're going to have to score runs far
more often than they did last year. While the supporting cast is important,
there is no bigger key to the Reds' 2010 chances than the not-yet-23-year-old
Jay Bruce.
Here's what the projections say:
Oliver: .257/.315/.469
CHONE: .286/.351/.539—wow, massive difference!
ZiPS: .251/.315/.459
CHONE is the current "heavyweight" among projection systems. But when it
departs so severely from Oliver and ZiPS ... well ... I'll just say that I
hope it's right.
Jay Bruce，這位擁有所有棒球天賦的23歲前頂級新秀,將是紅人隊想要在新的球季中得到
更多分數並擺脫上季貧打囧境的主要依靠
關於Jay Bruce這季的預測成績:
Oliver: .257/.315/.469
CHONE: .286/.351/.539—(FB記得選,謝謝)
ZiPS: .251/.315/.459
Can Drew Stubbs hit major league pitching?
Last year, the Reds gave 95 starts in center field, 81 batting leadoff, to
Willy Taveras. He responded by hitting the brilliantly innocuous line of
.240/.275/.285, and posting an "MLB leading" mark of -25 wRAA. This year's
apparent starter, former No. 1 draft pick Drew Stubbs, is a brilliant
fielder, and seems a good bet to top Taveras' performance this year (in the
good way). The question is by how much.
上季紅人隊給予W.Taveras在中外野95場的先發以及81場的首棒角色，
Taveras則以.240/.275/.285的完美成績來詮釋腿哥真諦，
並成功奪得全大聯盟最敗家-25 WAA
今年相同角色將由Drew Stubbs這位才華洋逸前首輪新秀擔任，
目前看來Stubbs在繳出與Taveras輝煌時期相同的表現這點上是個不錯賭注(好的方面)
問題這在於Stubbs成功的機率有多少?
The story you'll hear on Stubbs is that he has tremendous athletic tools, but
that he has had to shorten his swing so much to cope with severe contact
problems that his power is largely unusable in games. Perhaps for this
reason, he has rarely shown consistent power in the minors (28 homers in
1,800-plus PAs, and five homers in 556 PAs at Triple-A). So I'm very
skeptical of what he did in his last-season call-up, which was to put on a
serious power display: eight home runs in just under 200 PAs.
每當談論Drew Stubbs，驚人的運動能力雖然是其註冊商標，
但他必須學著縮短揮棒軌跡以克服其在打擊上的問題，
相較於上一季在短短不到200打席內所揮出的8隻全壘打，
我想在今年球季中偶爾展現曇花一現的長打火力或許才是真正的Stubbs
(小聯盟超過1800 PAs僅有28隻全壘打,在3A的556 PAs則一共只有五轟)
So what should we expect from Stubbs? In the minors, his primary offensive
contribution came from patience at the plate: he walked in at least 11
percent of his PAs each year in the minor leagues. While he strikes out
enough that he may not be able to carry a high average, he may be able to
walk enough to carry a decent OBP. And that would make him a nice asset,
because manager Dusty Baker has to hit his center fielder in the leadoff slot
in virtually every game.
Here are what the projections think of Stubbs:
Oliver: .225/.295/.326
CHONE: .251/.328/.380
ZiPS: .235/.305/.348
Yikes. Let's hope he surprises.
那麼我們究竟該如何看待Stubbs?在小聯盟，他的主要攻擊貢獻來自於打擊區上的耐心
過往每一季均有超過11%的被保送率，但高三振率亦使得Stubbs難以擁有高打擊率
因此Stubbs必須倚靠足夠的選球來掩護其上壘率，
而這也是傳說中的那個人將中外野及第一棒交給Stubbs時所希望看到的
關於Stubbs的成績預測:
Oliver: .225/.295/.326
CHONE: .251/.328/.380
ZiPS: .235/.305/.348
好吧...讓我們期待奇蹟...
Who is the real Homer Bailey?
Bailey has been a frustrating pitcher almost from the first day of his major
league debut in 2007. He was largely ineffective, had lost significant
velocity, and gained a reputation as an immature and/or difficult-to-coach
young pitcher. Over the past offseason, Bailey made some adjustments on his
mechanics, hoping to regain some velocity. The gains were almost immediate on
that front: After averaging 91-92 the past two seasons, Bailey was throwing
93 in his first May game after getting called up, and from June onward was
averaging 94-95. It took more time for the improved velocity to take the form
of success on the field, however. Here are his monthly FIP numbers from last
season:
May: 8.87 (one start)
June: 6.50
July: 5.36
August: 4.44
September/October: 3.07
自從07球季的登板初試合以來，Bailey就一直成為讓人沮喪的投手之一
缺乏效率，喪失球速並被貼上身心不夠成熟的年輕投手等標籤。
在08年季後，Bailey為重拾球速而對其投手機制作了些許調整，
從前兩季平均91~92哩的均速已進步到09年五月重新登上大聯盟的93哩
並在六月提升到均速94~95的水準,
球速的增加對於Bailey投手上的幫助也可從其逐月FIP(註二)數據上顯現出來
May: 8.87 (只有一場先發)
June: 6.50
July: 5.36
August: 4.44
September/October: 3.07
Heck of a finish to a season that did not begin well! Over his last nine
starts, Bailey posted a 1.70 ERA in 58.3 innings with a 53/24 K/BB ratio and
just two home runs allowed—a 3.06 FIP. Yes, it's a small sample size. And
yes, the velocity was there in June and July as well, without the results.
But the more I've stared at it, the more I'm inclined to believe that his end
of season performance foretells good things to come. Is Bailey likely to
contend for the Cy Young this year? No. But the Fans think he could post a
3.95 ERA in 174 IP this season. For once, I think they might not be overly
optimistic.
在Bailey上季的最後九次先發中，在58.3局中繳出了1.70 ERA、53/25的K/BB，
並只被轟出兩發全壘打與3.06的FIP。
這的確只是個小範本，且相同的球速在六七月時卻呈現出不同的投球成績
但我傾向於相信Bailey季末的表現預言了其日後的好表現，
但這表示Bailey這季會加入競逐賽揚的行列 ?
當然不會，但174 IP/3.95 ERA左右的成績卻是可預期的，而我也抱持著相同看法。
Is Aroldis Chapman the next Randy Johnson?
No. For one thing, Johnson's slider was probably better than his fastball.
Take that, straw man argument!
不,記得一件事,RJ的滑球甚至比Chapman的快速球還要出色,這就足以反駁上述的問題了
But will Chapman help the Reds this season? If you believe the hype after his
first spring training appearance, you'd expect that he was going to debut in
the No. 5 slot in the rotation to begin the year. I'm pretty skeptical of
that. The left hander has been brilliant thus far in spring training,
allowing just one run (a solo homer to Rickie Weeks) through Wednesday's game
in seven innings with 10 strikeouts and two walks. But as the initial mania
about him at the break of camp subsides, more and more Reds brass are
speaking up and urging caution. My read on things is that Chapman is almost
certainly going to start the season in the minors—perhaps Double-A—and will
at least be given the opportunity to struggle there. If he continues to
dominate, however, we may see Chapman midseason. Expect the Reds to be
cautious with him ... as long as owner Bob Castellini doesn't get impatient.
但今年球季Chapman能否對紅人隊帶來幫助，如果你相信其自首次春訓登板以來的表現
那麼你或許會認為他能夠從五號先發開始其大聯盟球季.
(Chapman在春訓中的表現為7 IP,K/BB 10/2,僅因Weeks的陽春彈失掉一分)。
我對於上述推論仍持懷疑態度，我認為Chapman將從小聯盟的2A開始其賽季,如果他能通過
考驗並真正展現投球威力,那麼我們將有機會在季中看見Chapman登上大聯盟.
我預期紅人隊將謹慎地培養Chapman....只要老闆Bob別再失去他的耐心。
As for the No. 5 slot in the rotation ... it's an open competition, but here
are the contenders in descending order of how likely I think they are to land
the job: Matt Maloney, Micah Owings, Justin Lehr, Kip Wells, Travis Wood,
Mike Leake, Mike Lincoln. And the last three probably aren't real contenders.
至於誰將擔綱輪值中的五號先發...我認為將開放給以下競爭者:
Matt Maloney, Micah Owings, Justin Lehr, Kip Wells, Travis Wood, Mike Leake,
Mike Lincoln...其中後面三隻我認真應該只是來亂的
What's going on in left field?
The biggest remaining question on the team is what to do with left field. The
re-signing of Jonny Gomes partially answered this question, as he seems
likely to secure the right-handed-hittting half of the platoon job, at least
to start the season. But there's a huge cast of characters that also would
like to be in the picture:
From the right side, Wladimir Balentien, Todd Frazier, Chris Heisey
On the left, Chris Dickerson, Juan Francisco, Josh Anderson, Laynce Nix
紅人隊目前最大的問題是誰要負責左外野的先發,從自由市場中重新簽回的Johnny Gomes
或許暫時是這問題的解答，至少他能扮演好面對左投手的角色，
然在賽季開始後以下的球員都有機會在左外野佔有一席之地
右打者:Wladimir Balentien, Todd Frazier, Chris Heisey
左打者:Chris Dickerson, Juan Francisco, Josh Anderson, Laynce Nix
Balentien was acquired last year in a small trade and is out of options, so
he seems likely to make the team as a reserve power bat off the bench who can
play all of the outfield positions (though you can question how well he can
handle center). When factoring in offense and defense, I'd rather have
Balentien than Gomes. But given that Balentien seems likely to make the team,
top prospects Frazier and Heisey seem to be facing a numbers game problem to
finding a spot on the roster ... although Frazier's versatility could land
him a spot filling in for an injury someone in the infield as the season
progresses.
Balentien是紅人隊從去年的小型交易中所得到，由於他已用完下放選擇權，
因此Balentien預期將會在開季扮演板凳代打以及外野超級工具人的角色
(至於讓他守中外野會變什麼樣子...就請自行想像....)
如果同時考量進攻與防守，我對Balentien的愛甚於Gomes，
但重用Balentien同時也會讓球隊中Frazier and Heisey等年輕新秀們面臨該如
何在球隊中定位的問題，
其中Frazier的多功能性將提供球隊在賽季中遇到內野傷兵問題時能夠有所應變調度
From the left side of the plate, Dickerson almost certainly has the team
made, and is the favorite to win the left-handed side of the platoon (and
possibly could also steal some starts from Stubbs in center). Dickerson has
hit well this spring. But the Reds also seem to like the incomparably
free-swinging Juan "El Niño Destructor" Francisco. He has the most extreme
combination of low minor league walk rate (4 percent) and high strikeout rate
(23 percent) I've seen among players who eventually had any level of success
in the majors. But the guy has tremendous power.
左打方面，春訓表現良好的Dickerson幾乎確定成為球隊面對右投手時，
在左外野的打者人選(也可能從中外野手Stubbs身上得到一些上場機會)。
不過紅人隊對於JuanFrancisco這位典型重砲手也相當喜愛，
其在小聯盟中有著極端的被保送率(4%)以及三振率(23%)
And then there are the veterans: Anderson and Nix. Anderson seems to me to be
a Willy Taveras clone—-good speed, less fielding that you'd expect, and a
fairly anemic bat. Nix, on the other hand, was ostensibly the starting left
fielder last season. Of all the outfielders, however, these two (Anderson and
Nix) have the fewest spring training PAs, leading me to suspect that these
guys are competing more for reserve spots than starting jobs.
Anderson和Nix是紅人隊的其他選擇，Anderson看起來就是另一位的Taveras
有腿、不期不待的防守能力以及只在大魯閣派得上用場的打擊。
Nix則是球隊上一季表面上的先發外野手，他們兩位在春訓中也沒啥出場機會
我想他們開季後該爭的是板凳而非先發球員的角色
So, back to the main question: Will this team break the streak of losing
seasons? The math says no. But there's a lot of good, young talent here. They
could surprise.
所以回到最初的問題，紅人隊今年有希望破繭而出嗎？
想太多了，期待那些年輕有才能的選手多帶來一點驚喜還比較實際
Justin is a life-long Reds fan who keeps the faith at Red Reporter. He also
writes at Beyond the Boxscore and on twitter.
註一:drink the Jay Bruce Kool-Aid 我不太確定這樣翻對不對，有錯的話歡迎指正
註二:FIP公式是league-specific factor +(HR*13+(BB+HBP-IBB)*3-K*2)/IP
註三:第一次嘗試翻譯...翻不好的地方還請多多包容