Five questions: Los Angeles Dodgers
by Joshua Fisher March 23, 2010
In terms of roster moves and baseball dealings, it's been a relatively quiet
offseason for Southern California's flagship sports franchise. Part of that
lull in coverage can be attributed to the underwhelming moves engineered by
Dodgers GM Ned Colletti. Bringing back Vicente Padilla and Ronnie Belliard
and adding Jamey Carroll and Reed Johnson doesn't exactly light up MLBTR.
Indeed, the most significant baseball news of the winter was the team's
decision not to offer Type A free agents Randy Wolf and Orlando Hudson
arbitration. Other than that, it's been a downright tranquil hot stove season.
依據目前的佈局和交易來看，在南加州的季後賽實在是太平靜了
這表面上的平靜可能是因為道奇的 GM 並沒有做出什麼令人驚奇的舉動…
弄來了 Vicente Padilla, Ronnie Belliard, Jamey Carroll 跟 Reed Johnson
結果 MLBTR 連看都不看 (茶)
看來今年冬天最有代表性的新聞
還是球隊決定不提供 Randy Wolf 跟 Orlando Hudson 仲裁權啊 orz
剩下的也沒什麼大不了的了
What's that you say? Something about a high-profile, billion-dollar divorce?
Affairs with team underlings, grandiose plans for world domination, and
repeated denials that the seemingly simple dissolution of a marriage has had
any effect on the club despite ominous evidence to the contrary? Okay, so
this might not all be news to me, but I feel that the club itself has taken a
backseat this winter to the McCourts' shenanigans. That said, ignoring them
completely in a preview of the 2010 season would be inappropriate, so let's
get this nastiness out of the way.
什麼？難道你不知道嗎？前幾天才爆一個可能達上億元離婚贍養費的八卦啊 (茶)
這件事情可能會影響整個球隊的運作！！！！
看來這件事情對新一季的道奇隊必然會有很大的影響吧
1. How will the McCourt divorce affect the 2010 Los Angeles Dodgers?
你覺得 McCourt 離婚官司事件可能會怎樣影響新一季的道奇隊呢？
Other than deflecting attention from the Manny Ramirez contract drive circus,
the answer is probably "not a whole lot." The litigation to resolve the
ownership of the club, once scheduled to begin May 24, has been postponed
indefinitely. Reaching a resolution during this baseball season is a
long-shot, and don't put this thing past extending all the way into 2011.
With the ownership of the club up in the air, one wonders, should the season
have a successful ending, if Jamie McCourt might petition the family law
court to award her a locker-room-style champagne celebration to keep her on
equal footing with Frank.
終於有人問了不是 Manny 合約的問題啦~
答案是…會有影響，但不會很大
畢竟這官司五月底才打，還不知道要打到啥時才會結束
說不定會打到 2011 年，所以煩惱那個，還不如先煩惱怎麼拿冠軍
有人說，這樣說不定會是這一件一個好的結局
球隊的經營權不知道歸誰，
然後 Jamie McCourt 關起門來慶祝他跟他老公一樣有錢了
(好在哪？)
As far as the product on the field goes, it sure appears that the die has
been cast when it comes to payroll. If the Dodgers somehow sell more tickets
or merchandise than forecast, might there be money to make a splash
midseason? Perhaps. But given that the team's recent M.O. has been to spin
off talented prospects rather than pick up salaries, Dodgers fans can't be
terribly optimistic about the team's ability to add a big piece in
mid-to-late July. Regardless of who you want to believe on how much money
Frank's got to spend on the team, it's clearly not being run as a megamarket
team should be.
至少現在該賣錢的都還是繼續賣，或許季中還有點錢可以拿來撿點好物來用
最近球隊為了省錢才處理掉一些可能有希望的新人而已，
老實說球迷們也知道球隊大概沒什麼能力在七月過後還能補充什麼大物進來。
更別說大家都知道有個傢伙正等著分球隊的錢。
The most visible impact of the McCourt divorce will be the constant media
noise surrounding the topic. Being a Dodger this year must be something like
being a non-Tiger Woods PGA Tour member. At some point, you probably have to
convince the media that you still, you know, play the game. And given the
tendency thus far for fairly explosive information to hit the press at least
once per month, this story isn't going away any time soon. From a fan's
perspective, though, the divorce ought to be fairly benign. Tickets to games
will still be reasonably priced, even if the same might not be said for the
options for purchase within Dodger Stadium. But, hey, there's still nothing
like Chavez Ravine on a warm summer night at sunset.
對球隊而言，目前最大的衝擊還是媒體的報導一直在那上面繞
身為一個道奇人，今年最好別讓自己加入 Tiger Woods 的行列了 orz
畢竟球員還是要以打球為重。
我想這件事這麼有話題性，大概也不會多快就落幕
從球迷的觀點，這個事件應該還是算是件好事。
球賽的票並不會因此變貴，畢竟沒有別的地方會像這裡一樣
能夠在日落後有個暖和的夏夜啊
2. What in the world does this team do if someone gets hurt?
球隊對於接下來如果遇上有人受傷會有什麼問題嗎？
This team is supermodel-thin in the outfield. It's got a kiddie-pool infield—
breadth in lots of options, but no depth in talent. The outfield—Ramirez,
Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier—is backed up by Johnson and the mythical Jason
Repko. Greg Miller disease, you see. Casey Blake, Rafael Furcal and James
Loney are assured starting spots in the infield, while Blake Dewitt and
Alfredo Amezaga are battling the aforementioned Belliard and Carroll for the
second base job. If one of the non-Loney infielders goes down—and remember,
Furca is a member of this group—then the replacement would likely come from
one of the losers of the second base competition. Catcher Russell Martin,
facing serious questions about his own future, is backed up by A.J. Ellis,
whose tangible skills include getting on base at an acceptable rate and,
well, getting on base at an acceptable rate.
這球隊的外野防區像是個超級巨星聚集地
但內野就像小孩子遊戲的地方，是有很多可以抓來當替補的
但是好用的就不是那麼多了
外野有 Ramirez, Matt Kemp 跟 Andre Ethier，還有 Johnson 跟 Jason Repko 在等著
Greg Miller 生病了…你知道吧！？ (有點跳 tone?)
而 Casey Blake, Rafael Furcal 跟 James Loney 都確定了他們在內野的先發位置
Blake Dewitt 跟 Alfredo Amezaga 還在等著看要選誰
Belliard 跟 Carroll 也還沒決定要放誰在二壘
如果倒下的不是 Loney 的話，那就會讓二壘比輸的放去他的位置
補手的位置現在也有 A.J. Ellis 當備用，他的上壘率也還可以…嗯，就還可以
If one of the outfielders, the three of which are the team's best hitters,
has to miss extended time, this team might be toast. The good news is that
Kemp and Ethier are reliable and young. The bad news is the other is Ramirez.
As for the infielders, the team could survive an injury to anyone from second
base around to third without suffering a season-crushing blow. That is, of
course, unless Blake plans to do at 36 something like what he did at 35, when
he posted a .280/.363/.468 line. That's a guy you can't lose. Problem is, of
course, due to regression and aging, the Dodgers probably already have lost
him. It's difficult to say what sort of impact an injury to Loney would have,
as he's quite the wildcard heading into 2010, but we'll talk about him later.
如果外野手，也就是我們隊上最好的打者，有人受傷的話，
那球隊可能就會比較麻煩一點了
好消息是 kemp 跟 Ethier 可以信賴而且也還有青春的肉體
壞消息就是… Ramirez.....
內野的話，二壘到三壘只要不是整季爆消都不會有問題
除非 Blake 打算在他 36 歲的高齡還打算像他去年一樣兇
(打擊三圍 .280/.363/.468)
儘管 Loney 如果受傷又沒有他的話可能會有點衝擊
不然球隊基於年齡考量，已經準備好會失去他的打算了
或許我們等等可以再聊聊有關他的事...
There are similar questions facing the rotation. Clayton Kershaw and Chad
Billingsley—who also will be discussed later—are nearly irreplaceable.
Think of those two like the outfielders, Hiroki Kuroda and Padilla are
penciled into the third and fourth spots. While they aren't great shakes—
Kuroda has durability issues and Padilla has Padilla issues—the Dodgers
really can't afford for one of them to go down either. That's because the
group battling for the 30-some starts from the fifth spot, which features
Eric Stults, James McDonald and Carlos Monasterios, really ought not to make
many starts from the third and fourth spots in the rotation.
在投手輪值上， Kershaw 跟 Billingsley 看起來應該就是不動先發了
就像那兩個有年輕肉體的外野手一樣 $_$
Hiroki Kuroda 跟 Padilla 暫定會是第三號跟第四號先發
不過他們可能還不夠穩，Kuroda 看起來沒啥擋頭，Padilla 則有 Padilla 的問題
不過目前球隊沒辦法承擔他們如果掰了的話要怎麼辦
至於現在第五號先發還沒決定，應該會從下面三個裡面選一個
Eric Stults, James McDonald 跟 Carlos Monasterios
他們應該也沒辦法先發像第三、四號這麼多場吧
The bullpen is a brighter picture. I think about four of these guys—Jonathan
Broxton, George Sherrill, Ramon Troncoso and Hong Chih Kuo—would be in line
for relief ace work with other teams. (Psst...Mr. Colletti...are you paying
attention?) And there's some depth to the 'pen, too. Any number of losers in
the race for the fifth rotation spot can help out of the bullpen, including
McDonald and Scott Elbert. Bottom line is that the bullpen is about the only
place the team can reach into its reserves and not suffer much on the field.
Except second base, I suppose, but the Dodgers don't figure to get much from
there anyway.
牛棚的話…
Broxton, Sherrill, Troncoso, 小小郭 都可以勝任中繼
(Psst.... Colletti... 你還有在聽嗎？)
還有其他可用之兵可以用，上面那些沒當上第五號先發的也是
牛棚大概是所有位置裡最不怕有傷兵的吧
除了二壘之外，我想道奇應該不太需要擔心太多
3. Just who are Loney and Billingsley?
剛說 Loney 跟 Billingsley 等等再聊，那就現在聊吧，介紹一下他們吧
Both born in 1984 and debuting in 2006, they were supposed to be the first
wave of the monsoon of youngsters who figured to put the Dodgers in a
dominant position for several years. They've certainly shown significant
signs of life. All Loney did in his 111 plate appearances in 2006 was post a
.284/.342/.559 line. Not bad for a 22-year old with a reputation as an
excellent defender. As for Billingsley, he recorded a shiny 3.80 ERA in 16
starts. This being 2010, of course, we know to look further—he struck out
just one more batter than he walked, FIPing his way to a 4.88 freshman
campaign. Not awe-inspiring, but he is the younger of the two.
這兩個都是 1984 年出生的，2006 年選秀進來
他們是第一波注入道奇的新血，也讓道奇在後面幾年能有夠縱橫球賽的實力
他們應該要算是這一代的代表球員了吧
Loney 在他的 2006 年 111 次打席中，交出了 .284/.342/.559 的打擊三圍
以一個 22 歲的新秀來說算是很威了
而 Billingsley 在 16 次先發中也有亮眼的 3.80 ERA
(後面這段不會翻 orz)
Since his debut, Loney has moved the wrong direction in some ways. His SLG
dropped from .538 in 375 plate appearances in 2007 to .434 (651 PA) in 2008,
and cratered at a ghastly .399 in another 651 plate appearances in 2009. He
was 25 last year. This is not the trend you want to see from a first baseman,
especially one whose swing just looks so good. But there is, yet, cause for
hope. He rebounded from a 0.53 BB/K ratio in 2008 to a much-more encouraging
1.03 figure in 2009. And he shows decent enough plate control: His percentage
of swings outside the zone has decreased each season, while his contact rate
reached a career high 88.5 percent last season. If the power comes—and he'll
turn just 26 in May—he might still be a monster. Through his age-25 season,
his No. 1 Baseball Reference comparable is Jeff Bagwell. Don't give up, yet,
Dodgers fans.
Loney 從他初登板後，他有些數據似乎不是這麼的好
他的長打率從 07 年的 .538 到了 08 年掉到 .434，09 年剩下 .399
這不是大家樂見的一壘手該有的樣子，特別是他的揮棒姿勢看起來沒啥問題
不過他的選球眼有長出來，而且跑壘的選擇看起來也比較好了
他揮擊壞球的次數也有逐年下降，contact rate 也到他的生涯新高 88.5
我猜他今年五月就會進化成完全體，你們會看到一個全新的一壘手兼強打者
As for Billingsley, I admit to being among the most bullish on his future.
While a couple of notable playoff debacles and odd injuries have drawn some
extremely negative press, I'm not sure most realize what the Dodgers have in
the solidly built right hander. After that promising-but-illusory 2006, he
proceeded to fool hitters instead of shiny-number worshipers. Although,
"fool" might be the wrong word; Billingsley's tool of the trade is power. In
the three seasons since his debut, he's never struck out fewer than 8.21 per
nine or posted a WHIP greater than 1.32. In 2008, he threw more than 200
innings and logged a 3.62 xFIP as a 23-year old. Last season, he made the
All-Star team following a sparkling first half in which he allowed a
.227/.316/.339 line. That's pretty much turning every hitter into David
Eckstein. The injury problems that derailed his season, combined with his
reputation for postseason failure, have made many forget that he was on the
fast track to acedom only a few short months ago. I expect him to be
excellent this year and going forward.
至於 Billinigsley，我承認那些有關他未來大放異彩的耳語應該都會是真的
不過在季後賽爆了兩場，然後又受傷…
我也不太確定道奇隊是不是還是這麼堅信這位右投手
不過，至少他現在能夠成功的迷惑打者，而不是只依賴那些數據
或許用"迷惑"這兩個字可能不是那麼的正確
Billingsley 最大的武器是他的力量
從他登板的三個球季來，他的三振率沒有低於 8.21，WHIP 也沒有超過 1.32
2008 年，他投了超過 200 局， xFIP 只有 3.62
去年，他在明星賽先發，打者的打擊三圍才 .227/.316/.339
打者遇到他都變得像 David Eckstein 一樣了 (Eckstein: 躺著也中槍)
受傷可能是他爆炸的原因，不過整體來說他還是表現的很好
我很期待他今年可以變得更強
4. What will become of Manny Ramirez?
那 Manny Ramirez 呢？
You've seen the story: Manny doesn't expect to be back with the Dodgers in
2011 after the expiration of his two-year, $45 million contract. Manny's
clearly smarter than people give him credit for; of course he won't be back!
Not at anything approaching his current price tag, anyway. Between his
personality quirks, chicanery in the outfield, and ever-looming threat of a
shutdown, Manny's best team for the remainder of his career (with the Dodgers
and otherwise) might always be "another team." Given his pending free agency,
and taking into account the declining market for declining designated
hitters, it's hard to know what to expect from him this season.
我想你也知道，Manny 2011 年後不打算再跟道奇續約
我想 Manny 應該是不會再回來了
個人的觀點，我覺得 Manny 在外野的表現，
對他來說，剩下的球員生涯應該不會再留在道奇
除非他願意以一個指定打擊的球員身份繼續打下去
On one hand, he could rake. Desperate to prove he's still a top-line hitter,
he might come out and do something preposterous for a 38-year-old. Make no
mistake, .325/.430/.580 is in play. While this outcome isn't likely by any
means, it's possible, and not even in the anything-is-possible-with-Manny
way. If he does something like that over 600 plate appearances, he'll be one
of the most interesting free agent cases in recent years. And the Dodgers
just might do a whole lot of winning along the way.
畢竟他也 38 歲了。.325/.430/.580 的打擊三圍還是很威
他証明了他還是第一線的打者
如果讓他跑去自由市場的話，他大概會是這幾年自由市場裡最威的球員吧
Things aren't likely to go quite that well. Our own forecast has him at
.298/.400/.524, coming to the plate 554 times. Most Dodgers fans would take
that outcome in a heartbeat. ZiPS projects a .290/.405/.538 line over 536
plate appearances, while CHONE pegs him for a .280/.374/.511 season in just
478 plate appearances. Obviously, even the most bearish expectations for what
he'll do at the plate identify him as a serious offensive threat. It's all a
matter of how often he'll be in the lineup and the extent to which his
offense can offset his defense.
不過我覺得事情不會這麼順利啦
我們自己預估他明年大概剩下 .298/.400/.524， ZiPS 則是估 .290/.405/.538
CHONE 則是 .280/.374/.511，而且打數只剩下 478 個
很明顯的，他在打擊上還會是個威脅, 不過他的守備就完全無解了，這是他將要面對的
5. Is there a more desirable young hitter/pitcher combination in the majors
than Matt Kemp and Clayton Kershaw?
來聊聊那些年輕的球員吧
除了 Matt Kemp 跟 Clayton Kershaw 之外，
你還想對哪些大聯盟哪些年輕的投打組合發表看法嗎？
You might not have heard of many members of the horde of pitchers competing
for the last spot in the rotation. And, like me, you might be skeptical of
Jason Repko's existence. Kershaw and Kemp do not enjoy such anonymity. The
pair—Kemp will be 25 this season and Kershaw just 23—has everything you
might want in a young duo. Kemp is on the cusp of MVP candidacy already,
coming off a .297/.352/.490 (plus good defense) effort in 2009. And all
Kershaw has done is strike out 285 batters in his first 278.2 innings.
你可能不知道，其實有很多人在爭最後一個先發輪值的位置
你可能也和我一樣，懷疑 Jason Repko 是不是有他有必要性
Kershaw 跟 Kemp 就不太會有沒沒無名的困擾
Kemp 已經是個 MVP 球員了，Kershaw 去年三振了 285 個打者
Kershaw, with just two seasons under his belt and susceptible to pitchers'
generally more unpredictable career trajectories, has the more significant
warts. He still walks too many batters—4.79 per nine innings last year.
Unsurprisingly, he has difficulty going deep into games, averaging just under
5.2 innings per start in 2009. But man, oh man, his stuff. Despite the ugly
walk figure,he carried just a 3.90 xFIP last season. And while his innings
did rise from 107.2 to 171 over the last two seasons, he has been used
judiciously. Often to the point of frustration (both of the fans and Kershaw
himself), he's been routinely pulled during good games once his pitch count
exceeded 100. While this isn't a perfect indicator of durability, the point
is the Dodgers have done what they can. There's only so much you can hold
back a player as talented as Kershaw. Three of his pitches are worth at least
1.36 runs per 100 pitches, and he uses his one below-average pitch—a nascent
changeup—just 4.6 percent of the time. He's special.
Kershaw 已經有兩個球季的登板經驗，而且還有著不可限量的生涯
不過他還是保送了太多的打者 (平均每九局保送 4.79 個)
不令人意外的，他平均每場球只能投不到 5.2 局
但是儘管這樣，他還是繳出 3.90 xFIP 的成績，投球局數也從 107.2 升到了 171 局
雖然他常常遇到挫折，但在他狀況好的時候，他也是能投超過 100 球的
他是為很有天份的投手，我相信他能再表現的更好
Kemp is much more of a known commodity, though he still possesses potential
for more. His development trend line has been, well, the sort of thing that
would be in a textbook about this sort of thing. Over the last three years,
his plate appearances have gone 311, 657, 667. BB/K rates: 0.24, 0.30, 0.37.
Isolated power: .178, .168, .193. Heck, even his run value in the outfield
has trended -3.7, -0.1, 2.6. He's not the perfect player; his on-base skills
could use work, he takes strange routes now and then, and his performance is
BABIP-heavy. And yet his on-base skills are moving the right direction, he's
getting better in the field, and sustainable BABIP varies player to player.
Simply put, when you've got a young player with such excellent strengths—
power and speed—who is improving on his weaknesses (instincts in the field
and getting on base) you've got one of the most valuable players in the game.
Kemp 還有很大的潛力，他的發展曲線就像教科數裡的那樣
上壘數 311→657→667
BB/K值 0.24→0.30→0.37
Isolated power: .178→.168→.193
球擊到外野時的跑壘得分值：-3.7→-0.1→2.6
他並不是完美的球員，他擅用他的跑壘技巧，詭異的跑壘路徑，讓他的 BABIP 值提高
他現在的跑壘技巧正在提昇，防守也慢慢變強了
簡單的說，這傢伙已經具備了優異的力量和速度，也正在強化他的弱點
這大概是我們已經有的 MVP 球員了
So how do these two stack up with other young tandems? Zack Greinke and Billy
Butler certainly deserve a mention. Yovani Gallardo and Prince Fielder figure
in, though Fielder gets expensive soon. Hanley Ramirez and Josh Johnson might
be better, but they're costlier. Pablo Sandoval and Tim Lincecum are
certainly contenders. Ubaldo Jimenez and Troy Tulowitzki are very good. And
who knows what Jason Heyward might do paired up with Jair Jurrjens or Tommy
Hanson. Evaluating all these duos against each other sounds like excellent
fodder for a future article, but for now I'll go with this: if Kemp and
Kershaw aren't the best young hitter/pitcher combination in the majors,
they're very, very close.
所以除了這些之外，還有誰呢？
我想會是 Zack Greinke 跟 Billy Butler 吧
Yovani Gallardo 跟 Prince Fielder 也可以考慮，不過 Fielder 很快的會成為大物
Hanley Ramirez 跟 Josh Johnson 可能會比較好，不過他們現在價位太高了
Pablo Sandoval 跟 Tim Lincecum 也很有競爭力
Ubaldo Jimenez 和 Troy Tulowitzki 也不錯
Jason Heyward, 和 Jair Jurrjens 或是 Tommy Hanson 可能可以搭配的很好
這些都是不錯的組合...
Conclusion
The 2010 Los Angeles Dodgers are, fittingly, an impressive team on the
surface. The club enters 2010 in a very strong position to win a middling NL
West. The Dodgers might have the finest group of outfielders in the game, and
Kershaw, Billingsley and Broxton are a ferocious trio of young arms. But
there is trouble lurking. An injury to an outfielder or key pitcher would
present a serious risk to the club's bid to win its third straight division
crown.
2010 年的道奇會是一個令人印象深刻的球季
他們有很大的機會贏得國聯西區的冠軍
他們有很強力的外野手，有著青春肉體的投手
不過一個外野手或是重要的投手受傷有可能就會影響整個戰局
There are established young performers in Kemp, Kershaw, Billingsley, Broxton
and Ethier. There are position players whose careers are, if not yet in
danger, surely on the protected species list: Loney and Martin. There are
several veterans whose sustained health and performance are vital to the
team's success. There is Manny Ramirez, who gets a category all to himself.
年輕的選手也正準備要展露頭角，他們都在自己的位置上扮演重要的角色
而 Loney 和 Martin 各是需要特別注意的
他們的健康和表現早已成為球隊勝利的關鍵
還有個 Manny Ramirez 在呢！
And then there are the McCourts. The hope in Chavez Ravine is that the
product on the field is so good that talk circling around the Dodgers can
focus on the reason the club exists: to compete for World Series
championships. However, if injury, regression or stalled development tanks
the club, you can bet that the daily workings of the McCourt divorce will
overshadow quiet developments on the baseball front. The 2010 season might go
just as its preceding offseason went: noteworthy for all the wrong reasons.
然而 McCourts 的風波可能還是會影響到球隊
但對於道奇而已，只需要專心去打好每場比賽，贏得世界冠軍
But this Dodger lifer has hope, as should all. Odds are strong that September
will, at the very least, matter. And the potential is there for meaningful
baseball to continue into November. This club has it all. Top-shelf ceiling.
Ugly downside. A scandalous side story which shows no signs of quieting. The
Dodgers are, truly, Hollywood's team. The only guarantee? The most gorgeous
sunsets in baseball.
(這段是在做一些局，不過我不確定要怎麼翻才好，簡單的說是大家等著看 0.0)