http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/five-questions-oakland-athletics4/
Five questions: Oakland Athletics
by Sal Baxamusa
March 22, 2010
What evil lurks in the heart of Beane this year? THT's five questions knows...
老奸巨猾的豆爺今年又打著怎樣的如意算盤呢？
繼續把THT今年的"五大哉問"給看下去就知道啦...
Q1. Great bullpen, or greatest bullpen?
很棒的牛棚？還是最棒的牛棚？
Great performances on bad teams are rarely appreciated, so it would be a shame
if the A's bullpen were overlooked again this year.
人們很少稱許差勁的球隊上某方面的突出表現；
但如果今年再度無視綠帽牛棚的人，那應該對自詡是棒球迷這點感到汗顏。
The relief corps last year accounted for somewhere between six and seven wins,
by far the best in the majors (the Yankees were around five wins and everybody
else was less than four). For a team that stunk so badly last year, the bullpen
was truly outstanding. The core of the bullpen—Rookie of the Year Andrew
Bailey, Brad Ziegler, Craig Breslow, and Mike Wuertz—is returning this year,
and a post-Tommy John Joey Devine will be thrown into the mix. Nobody is
expecting these guys to put up a collective 3.35 FIP again, but these are some
seriously talented relievers. I'm not positive, but I'm fairly certain the A's
are projected to have the best bullpen in the American League, probably around
four and a half or five wins.
綠帽的牛棚揪竟有多棒呢？如果將之數據化，去年他們的貢獻大概在6到7勝，傲笑聯盟
（台灣最愛的豪門洋基約在5勝之譜，而剩下的球隊牛棚貢獻都小於4勝）。對一支去年
超爛的球隊來說，他們的牛棚還真不是蓋的！綠帽牛棚的核心群——2009新人王Andrew
Bailey, Brad Ziegler, Craig Breslow,和Mike Wuertz今年通通到位，甚至開完TJ的
前終結者Joey Devine也會回歸。奢求他們再次複製一次去年牛棚FIP 3.35的超人表現
當然太樂觀，儘管這些中繼天分十足。持平來說，我相信綠帽牛棚今年仍是美聯最佳，
有可能貢獻4.5至5勝。
They're a fun bunch, too. Bailey is the fire-breathing failed starter let loose
in the bullpen. Ziegler is the submarining deception artist. Breslow is the
intellectual. Wuertz is just some dude until he unleashes the best slider in
the majors. The A's have tons of questions in the rotation—Ben Sheets, Dallas
Braden and Justin Duchscherer are coming off major injuries—but if they can
get the game to the bullpen, this group will close it out.
順道一提，這牛棚組合也很有趣：先發轉職牛棚抒困的Bailey、潛水艇欺騙專家Ziegler、
知識分子Breslow、若非在大聯盟投出超棒滑球不然根本是個路人甲的Wuertz。
綠帽的先發輪值當然問題重重——扁食、布雷登、嘟起惹都才從重傷復出——然而，
要是他們可以把比賽交給牛棚，一切看起來就妥當了。
If they're not all injured. Which, apparently, can happen very quickly—in one
day last week, Devine, Breslow, Wuertz and Bailey were all injured.
喔，我是說「假使牛棚非DL大隊」的話，呃，這顯然極有可能馬上發生——上週
Devine, Breslow, Wuertz跟Bailey就全中標了...
(譯者OS：這是綠帽近幾年的原罪嗎？)
Q2. Who's going to be your boy this year?
哪個人是你今年的“寶貝”呢？
Every year, an Athletic is designated "my boy." When "my boy" does something
even marginally good, like reach base on an error, I run around the house
screaming "That's my boy!" It reconfirms to my wife that despite my advanced
degree, mature parenting, and calm-but-strong leadership of the househould, I
am actually a grade-A buffoon.
每一年我都會選一名綠帽球員作為“我的寶貝”，當“我的寶貝”每回有好表現時，
譬如靠著失誤上壘，我都會在房子裡團團轉尖叫著：“這就是我的寶貝！”
我老婆總能再次確定在高學歷、擁有成熟為父之道、沈著但堅毅的戶長身份下，她丈夫
其實是個一等一的狂熱笨蛋。
（譯者OS：每年都來這段解釋是在騙稿費嗎？)
I've had some pretty embarassing choices in years past—Esteban Loaiza was a
disaster of the highest order—but I did well in choosing Braden and his 3.73
FIP last year. So which player will reduce me to sheer idiocy this year? This
year, I am going with Daric Barton. Did you know that Barton had laser eye
surgery and is being more selective at the plate? Why, it's almost as if he
were in the best shape of his life! There's no way he won't come on like
gangbusters!
當然我也當過大仙——Esteban Loaiza就是我的代表作——但是我去年挑的布雷登
（FIP 3.73）就挺不賴的～所以，2010哪位寶貝將再度使我瘋狂呢？
就決定是你了！Daric Barton！你們知道他動了眼睛雷射手術，選球也變得更精了嗎？
因為他正在正處於有史以來體格最好的狀態！今年沒道理他不變成捍衛戰警！
Due to veteran deference, poor roster management, and perhaps a vain attempt at
contention, it's possible that the A's do something bizarre like platoon Eric
Chavez and Jake Fox at first base. That would be foolish, however, since it
would require optioning Barton back to Triple-A. With super-prospect Chris
Carter rocketing through the system, this is the year for the A's to see what
kind of hitter they have in Barton. If he's the .400 OBP/40 doubles machine
that everybody thought he was a few years ago, then maybe the A's have to see
if Carter can fake a passable left field. The likelihood that Barton is the
kind of player that forces a top-15 prospect into a position change is slim.
But it's worth finding out, since Carter-as-firstbaseman renders Barton wholly
redundant.
由於輩份上的問題、糟糕的陣容調整、或是無效的爭辯討論，綠帽今年1B可能會排出
Chavy/Jake Fox這種詭異的組合，而這麼一來Barton就得丟到3A去，也太愚蠢了！
頭號新秀Chris Carter即將登上大聯盟，今年綠帽必須認真評估Barton是名怎樣的打者，
如果Barton能成為幾年前大家心目中的.400 OBP/40支2B製造機，綠帽就必須考慮Carter
能否假扮成可用的LF（譯者OS：像神奇傑克那種嗎？)。好吧，我知道Barton讓一個前15
的新秀改變守位的機率可說是微乎其微，不過嘗試一下又何妨？反正「1B Carter」上來
Barton就只是個雞肋...
Come on, Barton. You're my boy!
你行的～Barton，你可是我的寶貝啊！
Q3. Shouldn't the A's have extended Miguel Tejada instead of Eric Chavez?
綠帽當初該綁八毛而非恰V嗎？
The next person who says the A's should have kept Miguel Tejada over Eric
Chavez is going to get a severe poke in the eye from yours truly. I am not
inclined to rehash that silly discussion. Nor am I in any mood to discuss in
detail the delicate interplay between Chavez's health and the A's 25-man roster.
我知道提出這問題的人一定被你們的眼神殺死了，我不是打算再老生常談這老梗，
更沒心情談論Chavy的健康狀況與綠帽25人名單之間微妙的關係...
It suffices to say that the A's stand to lose a useful player on waivers—maybe
Jake Fox, maybe Eric Patterson—if they include Chavez on the roster as a
utility infielder. Chavez is unlikely to contribute much with the bat or the
glove and he's going to get hurt soon anyway. What's best for the team is the
failed comeback of my favorite player. I find this position so untenable that I
prefer to ignore this ugly reality rather than confront it.
事實很明顯：要是綠帽決定將Chavy定位為內野工具人，就必須冒著將Jake Fox或是
Eric Patterson兩者其一丟到waiver的風險。Chavy棒子與手套的貢獻顯然有限，而且
反正他「遲早」會又回到DL。因此對球隊最佳的結果就是，我最喜歡的球員再度傷後復出
失敗...這事實真是太殘酷太難堪了，我無法面對，I can't.
I'm not going expend emotional energy hoping for Beulah to reunite and stage a
comeback tour, but that doesn't mean that I can't still enjoy Emma Blowgun's
Last Stand. In the same vein, there's no harm in reflecting on Chavez's career.
這就像我並不打算幻想Beulah樂團某天能復出並來個巡迴演唱，但至少我依舊可以享受
他們的單曲"Emma Blowgun's Last Stand"。同理可證，緬懷一下Chavy過去燦爛的生涯
也無妨。
At the close of 2005 season, Chavez had picked up five consecutive Gold Gloves,
consistently hit for a 120-130 OPS+, and had missed significant time only due
to an injury sustained on a hit-by-pitch. With normal aging and reasonable
health, he would have finished his career as one of the top five position
players in Oakland history and even had an outside shot at the Hall of Fame.
2005球季結束時，Chavy連拿了五座金手套，持續貢獻120-130 OPS+，只有一回觸身受傷
離開球場比較久。按照這軌跡，他生涯數據將成為綠帽史上前五的野手；甚至有機會一試
名人堂。
Then, everything fell apart. His back, shoulder, butt and hamstrings all
exploded; superstar body parts were scattered all over the disabled list. There
was rehab and surgery and whispers of retirement. Chavez managed to keep things
together long enough to put together a nice 2006 season, but he has been an
unmitigated disaster since then. Chavez and his comebacks have turned into
something of a running gag, and while I can't fault the professional snark
peddlers, it's worth remembering just how good Chavez was when he was on. For
that bit of reminiscing, I turn to one of my favorite bloggers, erstwhile
proprietor of Catfish Stew Ken Arneson:
但接下來大家都知道發生了什麼事，我們明星三壘手的身體整組壞了了；
復健、手術、退休的耳語就此縈繞。Chavy也曾把健康找回來過而有個不錯的2006球季，
但在此之後，就全然是一場災難，他的復出也成了固定的肥皂劇戲碼。
不過還是值得回想過去的他有多棒，這裡我引用一位我最愛的部落客Ken Arneson的文：
The latest jaw-dropper took place last night. With one out, runners on
second and third, and Texas one run down, Chavez took a chopper near the
bag, and quickly tagged out Mark DeRosa trying to return to third base.
Now, I can't ever remember seeing a 5-unassisted at third base like that
before, but Chavez didn't stop there. After tagging out DeRosa, he jumped
over him into foul territory, planted his feet, and fired across the
diamond to throw out the batter, Ian Kinsler. Double play, inning over.
Mouth agape.
What can you say after a play like that? Only two words come to mind.
"Time machine"?
最近一回讓人驚嘆的守備出現在昨晚。當時一出局，跑者分站二三壘，條子還落後
一分。Chavez在壘包旁接下一記強勁的反彈球，馬上觸殺了回壘不及的Mark DeRosa；
接下出現了我從未見過三壘助殺：Chavy觸殺跑者後並未停下來，他跳過了DeRosa到
界外區，站穩腳步，對角長傳一壘，火球觸殺了打者Ian Kinsler，雙殺，換邊。
張目結舌。
看了這種金手套級的守備你還能說啥？腦袋只浮現四個字。
「時光機器」？
Q4. Is Ryan Sweeney better than Jacoby Ellsbury?
我們家的Ryan Sweeney有比紅襪小帥哥好嗎？
No, but it's closer than you think. Over the last two years, Ryan Sweeney has a
wOBA of .328 and .330. Jacoby Ellsbury of the Boston Red Sox is at .333 and
.354. But wait! Ellsbury plays in a great hitter's park; Sweeney, not so much.
Their park- and team-adjusted linear weights over the last two years, according
to Sean Smith's Baseball Projection, are 4.3 runs/700 PA for Sweeney and -3.3
runs/700 PA for Ellsbury. Put it all together and throw in some regression and
Ellsbury and Sweeney have similar values as hitters. Indeed, both the THT
forecasts and CHONE project them to be almost identical hitters in 2010.
答案是，否。但遠比你想像地來得接近。Sweeney這兩年的wOBA分別是.328跟.330，不及
Ells的.333跟.354。但～揪兜媽得～人家可是在著名打者球場的成績呢，倘若我們將球場
因素以及球隊線性加權代入這兩年的數據，根據Sean Smith's Baseball Projection，
Sweeney每700PA是4.3分；Ellsbury每700PA則是負3.3。把這些數據通通代入並加以回歸
分析，你將發現他們兩位在打擊上的貢獻其實是大同小異的。事實上，2010年THT與CHONE
對這兩人的預測的確是幾乎一樣的！
The defensive numbers say that Sweeney is slightly above average fielder in
center field and well above-average in the corners. The opinion on Ellsbury is
mixed; he's had stellar seasons and he's had awful seasons, depending on the
year and the defensive metric. Sweeney's got a good arm; Ellsbury doesn't.
Tango's Fan Scouting report suggests they are rough equals in the field. I buy
that.
討論完打擊再來講守備。Sweeney中外野的防守數據略高於平均，而兩角的防守數據遠高
於均值。而Ellsbury的數據有些複雜，他每年的表現落差太大。我們可以說Sweeney強肩、
Ells則無。我採信Tango's Fan Scouting報告上說他們倆在防守上粗略相同的說法。
So Sweeney and Ellsbury are pretty much the same player, except for two
important differences. First, Ellsbury is massively better on the bases,
perhaps by as much as one win. This gives him additional value afield that
Sweeney will likely never match. Second—and I'll bet you'd never guess this—
Sweeney is a year-and-a-half younger than Ellsbury. I have this image in my
head as Ellsbury as some young buck, but he turned 26 last season. On the other
hand, Sweeney seems like a failed prospect trying to build a second life for
himself as a role player. He just turned 25.
結論是這兩位基本上可以說是差不多的球員，除了兩個重大的差別：首先，Ells在壘包
間能力強的太多，差不多可以多貢獻一勝，這是Sweeney所無法取代的。至於第二點——
你可能怎麼猜都猜不著——Sweeney小Ellsbury一歲半！奇怪的是，當提到Ellsbury，
我第一個想到的是年輕的肉體（但他去年就26歲了）；而反過來Sweeney的印象則是，
要找回第二春的失敗新秀（人家明明才剛滿25）。
That doesn't make Sweeney a better player than Ellsbury, nor am I suggesting
that he will be in the future. But Sweeney and Ellsbury are basically the same
player at the plate and in the field. And Sweeney's youth (and build—this guy
could sell jeans) suggests that he might have room to grow. His swing, which
was defnitely not built for power, doesn't make me optimistic, but he's still
just a kid.
不過那有可能只是自嗨，年紀的差距並不會讓Sweeney變得比Ellsbury更好，我想未來也
不會。但經由上述分析，基本上他們倆的棒子跟手套都一樣；而Sweeney的年紀和漢草
暗示著他有成長的空間，雖然他的揮棒顯然並非追求砲瓦令我擔心，不管啦～反正
He still has time.
So what was the point of my comparison? I'm not really sure. But you know what?
Ryan Sweeney is better than you think he is.
這個問題比來比去到底重點是啥？
管他的不重要，總之Sweeney比你想像的要好就是了。
Q5. Will the A's make the playoffs?
綠帽今年會進季後賽嗎？
It's possible, but they're far from the favorites. The AL West is going to be
close this year. Texas and Anaheim are probably 85-90 win teams, Seattle
between 83-88, and Oakland just a tick behind. That's close enough that
unexpectedly good performances—c'mon Barton, you're my boy!—and just plain
dumb luck can drag any team to the top. Oakland is an interesting case, though.
If the A's are playing well enough to challenge for the division—an unlikely
but not ridiculous hypothetical—there is a good chance that the team playing
down the stretch is not the team that is projected to be around .500 at this
moment.
有可能...不過不是被看好的那支。今年的美西競爭十分激烈，條子與猴子是85-90勝等級
的隊伍，水手約83-88勝，綠帽則差了一些。任何出乎預料的好表現——你行的～Barton
，你可是我的寶貝啊！——加上一些運氣，都有可能將任一支球隊登頂。綠帽的例子又
比較特殊，假使綠帽最終戰績真有機會挑戰分區龍頭——不太可能但不流於荒謬的假設—
—那時將是一支與此刻預測戰績勝率五成不同的另一支隊伍。
Why? Because if the A's are contending late into the season, it will almost
certainly be because Sheets is healthy and ace-like, the only anxiety
surrounding Duchscherer is that of opposing batters, and players not on the
Opening Day roster are making key contributions. In other words, if the A's are
playing well late in the year, they will be a 85-90 win true talent team. To
some extent, this is true for many teams. But I imagine this effect is greater
for the A's given the injured pitchers with the potential for high-end
performance and the star prospects waiting in the minor leagues.
理由何在？因為綠帽要是在季末仍保有競爭力，幾乎可以確認那時的扁食是張健康的王牌
，嘟起惹能夠面對打者，加上不在開幕名單上的球員起了關鍵性的作用。換句話說，
若綠帽年底還打得不錯，他們將是支85-90勝、球員充滿天分的球隊。就某方面而言，
這策略代入很多球隊都適用。但我認為，綠帽的效果可能會大的多，畢竟他們對這群傷後
復出的投手們、跟小聯盟新秀的殷盼甚深。