作者:
scottc ( )
2010-04-02 23:15:35Five questions: Pittsburgh Pirates
by Charlie Wilmoth
March 22, 2010
全文連結:http://ppt.cc/tG@9
The Pirates stink, have stunk since the beginning of time, have had 17
straight losing seasons, blah blah blah. Let's skip the rest of the
throat-clearing, shall we? It's too depressing.
說到海盜 大家可能馬上就會聯想到一支已經連17年勝率未過半的球隊
不過還是別那壺不開提那壺 回來看看今天要討論的主題吧
1. How will changes to the defense affect the starting rotation?
1. 防守上的變動會如何影響到先發輪值的表現?
That any part of the 2009 Pirates' 62-99 team “performed” may surprise some
of you, and for good reason. But the fact remains that most of the Bucs'
rotation was fine, at least on the surface, with four of its five main
starters (Ross Ohlendorf, Zach Duke, Paul Maholm and Charlie Morton) all
posting ERAs of 4.55 or below. This is a pitch-to-contact bunch, though (Duke
and Maholm have made their careers that way, and while Ohlendorf and Morton
might have the stuff to post high strikeout rates in the majors, they haven't
done it yet), and pitch-to-contact types rely heavily on their defense.
在2009年僅拿下66勝的海盜，去年的先發輪值表現卻顯得中規中矩，
五名先發裡有四位(Ross Ohlendorf, Zach Duke, Paul Maholm and Charlie Morton)
的ERA小於4.55，而這些投手都以不畏懼與打者對抗或挨打的方式與打者周旋，
然而這種投球方式就十分倚賴隊友防守的幫忙。
The Pirates' defense, lousy throughout much of the aughts, was passable last
year, but that might change in 2010. The Pirates are entrusting first base to
Jeff Clement, who has barely played the position even in the minors. Their
shortstop will be Ronny Cedeno, who's competent enough but is still a large
defensive downgrade from Jack Wilson, one of baseball's best defenders.
海盜去年的防守還算過得去，然而今年可能會有了些變化。
首先，今年的一壘手是由Jeff Clement擔任，而他在小聯盟幾乎沒有守過一壘；
游擊大關是Ronny Cedeno，他的防守能力是足以勝任，但跟去年防守優異的Jack Wilson
相比還是差了一個等級。
Contrary to his reputation, Lastings Milledge played left field capably and
enthusiastically down the stretch last year, but he lacks Nyjer Morgan's
spectacular range. And Garrett Jones, although he helps offensively, is much
worse in the field than last year's opening day right fielder, Brandon Moss.
The only positions where the Pirates can expect to improve much are center
field, where the speedy and sure-handed Andrew McCutchen took over for Nate
McLouth last June, and perhaps second base, where Akinori Iwamura replaces
Freddy Sanchez and the abominable Delwyn Young.
Lastings Milledge今年鎮守左外野，但在守備範圍仍比不上已離隊的Nyjer Morgan；
而去年炮火猛烈的Garrett Jones，在防守上也不如去年開季先發的右外野手
Brandon Moss。唯一守備晉級的位置就只有中外野由Andrew McCutchen取代離隊的
Nate McLouth以及Akinori Iwamura鎮守的二壘了。
That's important, and one need only look at Duke's career to see why. Put
Duke in front of a decent defense like the one he had last year, and he's
fine. Put him in front of a bad defense, like the ones he had in 2007 and
2008, and he's a mess. His BABIPs have been .360 in 2007, .327 in 2008 and
.296 in 2009, and those numbers track pretty closely with his ERAs. While the
changes in BABIP among those years appear to involve some random variance,
they also have a lot to do with the Pirates' fielding, which converted far
more balls in play into outs in 2009 than in either 2008 or 2007. The
defensive downgrade this year is likely to affect Duke more intensely than it
will affect the Bucs' other starters, but unless they increase their
strikeout rates, they're all very vulnerable.
我們看看Duke這幾年的成績就明白防守對他的重要性了。
像去年在可圈可點的防守下，他的成績就不錯，但在2007和2008兩年差勁的防守下，
他的成績就明顯較差。
他的BABIP從2007年的.360、2008年的.327，降到2009年的.296 而這些數據和他的ERA
有明顯的正相關。我們知道BABIP本來就會隨機的變動，但也跟防守能力的好壞有關連。
可以預見的，今年防守上的退步可能會使得Duke的成績下滑。
除非海盜的輪值群能增進本身的三振功力，不然成績仍易受守備的影響。
2. Who is the real Garrett Jones?
2. Garrett Jones到底是真貨還是假貨?
Entering the 2009 season, Garrett Jones was just another aging, lumbering
minor league slugger with little defensive value, basically indistinguishable
from Mitch Jones or Brian Myrow or Brad Eldred or Andy Tracy or Cory Aldridge
or... well, you get the picture. Usually when a career journeyman
inexplicably has a huge season, it's a fluke. In 2008, for example, aging
nobodies Ryan Ludwick, Ty Wigginton and Jody Gerut all came up big; in 2009,
they just took big steps backward. And to compare the pre-2009 version of
Jones to any of those players would be extremely generous to Jones, who
before last year had been floundering in the Minnesota Twins system for the
better part of a decade.
進入2009年球季時，Garrett Jones只是一位年事已大，防守不佳但有常打能力的小聯盟
打者。你知道的，若一位年齡已高卻沒來由的在一年之中突然爆發的球員很有可能是
假貨。拿2008年爆發的Ryan Ludwick、Ty Wigginton和Jody Gerut為例，他們在2009年
都有明顯的衰退。
If Jones has one thing going for him, it's that he sustained a high level of
production for the entire season. He hit 33 homers between Triple-A and the
majors, and he didn't do that because of some hot streak—including his time
in the minors, he only had one month with an OPS below .850. He also hit for
average, took some walks, and stole some bases; there wasn't much to dislike
about his offensive performance, or an obvious flaw that will bring him down.
It's likely that 2009 was a career peak for Jones, but it was too good a
season to be dismissed completely. He probably won't post a .938 OPS again,
which is a shame for a Pirates team that desperately needs impact players,
but like Ludwick, he should hit well enough to keep a job.
Jones可能是真貨的跡象在於他整個球季都維持超高檔的表現，他去年整年在大小聯盟
一共轟了33發，僅有一個月OPS小於.850，看來2009的代表作很可能是他的巔峰，
但如此驚人的炮火不會在一年之後完全消失殆盡，他可能不會再打出OPS.938這樣的
好表現，但仍能勝任他的先發工作。
3. Are reclamation projects a good idea?
3. 球隊的再造計畫是否是個好主意?
For better or for worse, the Pirates appear to be trying to answer this
question by generating as much data as possible. During the 2008 and 2009
seasons, the Pirates found themselves in a tricky situation—they were
terrible at the major league level, and many of their core players were
entering their 30s and were about to become free agents. Pirates GM Neal
Huntington did the sensible thing by shopping as many of those players as he
could, but he found that other teams were understandably unwilling to part
with top prospects for the Pirates' crew of mediocrities.
Instead, most of the players Huntington grabbed fit into one of two groups.
One of those was speculative, Single-A-type prospects, who tended to be tall
starting pitchers. The other was players with obvious talent who the Pirates'
trading partners had become annoyed with or disinterested in.
在2008以及2009球季，海盜發現他們處在一個進退兩難的處境：戰績不佳而陣中的
核心球員大多已邁向30歲也快可取得自由球員資格，總經理Neal Huntington因此想把
陣中的好手交易出去來換取年輕新秀。但其他GM也沒這麼傻會拿陣中的頂級新秀去換
一些還稱不上是明星級的老鳥，因此Huntington換進的新秀大概可以分為兩類:
一類是有天份但離成熟還很遙遠的1A球員，另一類則是有天份但是一直表現不佳而被
原球團放棄的球員。
The Bucs' 2010 roster will be filled with players who fall into the latter
category. Despite his being the third overall pick in the
everybody-gets-a-star 2005 draft, the Mariners never found much use for
Clement, who struggled with his defense behind the plate and with injuries.
For years, the Dodgers jerked around third baseman Andy LaRoche, despite his
being one of their best prospects. No one disputes the talent of Milledge,
but his attitude proved to be too much for both the Mets and Nationals.
Ohlendorf was the main piece in the Randy Johnson trade for the Yankees, but
he struggled in the Yankees organization and was shipped to the Pirates in
the Xavier Nady/Damaso Marte deal.
These players all stand a decent chance of at least being average, but given
their histories, there's also reason to hope that one of them gets back on
track for a few years of stardom, much in the same way Carlos Pena or Edwin
Jackson did. Given the quality of the veterans the Pirates were trading away—
and the reluctance of today's general managers to trade top prospects—that's
probably the best the Bucs could have hoped for.
海盜今年的球員似乎屬於第二類的居多，像是一直在防守不佳以及在傷痛中掙扎的Clement
，還有一直有態度方面問題而被大都會跟國民放棄的Milledge，以及Andy LaRoche和
Ohlendorf等人。到底這些人會有幾個可以成為明日的巨星呢？在海盜很難交易到其他
隊伍頂級新秀的情形下，這些人就是海盜未來的希望所在。
4. Will the veteran bullpen produce?
4. 由老將為主的牛棚撐得住嗎?
Frankly, it will have to, because there isn't a ton of talent in the minors
to fill in if things go wrong. Pirates fans spent a lot of energy this
offseason worrying about the bullpen, not necessarily because the bullpen was
the team's most pressing problem, but because of Huntington's controversial
decision to non-tender closer Matt Capps after a terrible 2009 season. Given
that other general managers will often overpay for “closers,” it might have
been worthwhile to take Capps to arbitration with the hope of trading him if
he performed well. Huntington's backup plan, though, wasn't bad—he grabbed
an arguably better pitcher, Octavio Dotel, to close for a similar price.
Dotel's age, flyball tendencies, and trouble with lefties could combine to
make him a risky proposition in lefty-friendly PNC Park, but his ability to
rack up strikeouts still makes him a solid gamble.
老實說，他們必須頂住，因為農場裡並沒有太多可用之兵。休季期間，海盜選擇不和去年
表現糟糕的Matt Capps換約，而是選擇簽下了Octavio Dotel。Dotel雖然有著年齡過高、
滾飛比過低以及對付左打不佳的問題，但他仍保有不錯的三振能力，這對海盜來說或許
是個不錯的賭注。
To fill out the bullpen, Huntington also signed Brendan Donnelly, D.J.
Carrasco and Javier Lopez for good value. Donnelly pitched brilliantly last
year for the Marlins, and he and Carrasco, who led the majors in relief
innings last year, could be especially helpful. The infusion of talent was
badly needed—the Pirates' 2009 4.61 bullpen ERA was worse than that of any
other NL team except the Nationals, and the only decent arms left over from
2009's mediocre Pirates pen were Joel Hanrahan, who could start the year on
the disabled list, and Evan Meek.
鑒於去年海盜牛棚4.61的ERA在國聯只贏過國民，今年簽下了Brendan Donnelly、
D.J.Carrasco和Javier Lopez。去年Donnelly在馬林魚投的不錯，Carrasco則是去年
吃最多局數的後援投手，這點對海盜來說可能格外重要。而去年的班底留下的可用之兵
還有Joel Hanrahan以及Evan Meek等人。
5. What will the future bring?
5. 將來的發展與走向?
2010 won't be the Pirates' year, but the organization is no longer completely
hopeless. 2009 saw the debut of the brilliant McCutchen; in 2010, third
baseman Pedro Alvarez and outfielder Jose Tabata will probably join him.
Thanks largely to a series of miserable drafts by Huntington's predecessor,
Dave Littlefield, the upper levels of the Pirates' minor league system are
still thin after Alvarez and Tabata. But the lower levels are packed with
more talent than the Pirates have had in years, thanks to the Bucs' series of
trades last year and to their last two drafts, in which they've spent more
combined than any other team.
To a Pirates fan impatient with well over a decade of losing, improvement at
the Single-A level is pretty thin gruel. But you've got to start somewhere,
and for a team that will probably never have a top-10 payroll, “somewhere”
inevitably means the farm system.
別期待2010年海盜就可以脫繭而出，但也不是全然沒有希望。去年我們目睹了McCutchen
這顆新星的崛起，今年也許Pedro Alvarez和Jose Tabata就會跟隨他的腳步而開始發光
發熱。除此之外，感謝前任經理Dave Littlefield接連幾次奇糟無比的選秀，目前海盜
的高階農場裡並沒有其他可期待的人選。不過去年海盜幾次交易中倒是補進了不少低階
農場的潛力新秀。也許這些小球員並無法給海盜什麼及時的補強，但要對於小市場球隊
要走出連年不振的唯一方法仍是得靠農場系統。
There are still a number of questions to be answered about the people
currently running the Pirates. Will Huntington have the talent evaluation
chops necessary to turn a reasonable core of young talent into a real
contender? Will owner Bob Nutting finally raise the payroll to the $80
million range if Huntington can get the team to the verge of contention? But
for once, it isn't ridiculous to imagine winning baseball in the Pirates'
future. It won't happen this year, and it probably won't in 2011, but for the
first time in years, the Bucs are headed in the right direction.
對於今年的海盜而言仍存有許多問號，但總結來說，海盜也許會在將來成為一支常勝軍，
當然不是在今年，可能也不會是明年，但這些年來海盜終於開始往對的方向前進。
PS: 第一次嘗試翻譯，如有遺漏缺失還請多多包涵指教
沒想到短短一篇文章也花了兩個多小時來打字翻譯
本來想逐字翻的 後來就只能跳著節錄重點了XD
※ 編輯: scottc 來自: 114.25.240.55 (04/02 23:22)