http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/five-questions-colorado-rockies4/
Five questions: Colorado Rockies
by John Barten
March 29, 2010
For most of the history of the franchise, anybody who was writing this yearly
article had one easy bullet point for their summation. Of course the low
hanging fruit I am referring to is better known as Coors Field. Be it caused
by a humidor, weather patterns, changes to the park, or a voodoo priest, the
park has somewhat stabilized as a very good park for hitters, but not quite
the launching pad it was a decade ago. It inflates run-scoring rates by a
mere 7 to 10 percent rather than the 20 to 30 percent it used to be.
每年寫洛磯隊的專欄幾乎都會歸納出一個重點：那就是人稱”褲兒濕”的洛磯主場。
不過，近來來因為棒球保濕器的使用、球場與天氣型態的改變、甚至靠著神祕的巫毒祭
司(註1)，讓褲兒濕即使還是對打者有利的球場，卻不像十年前砲聲隆隆如發射台一般。
它讓球賽得分速率加快了7到10個百分點，而不是之前的20到30。
(註1):這邊不太懂他的典故...或許單純是指某種神祕力量?!
Nobody is asking anymore if it is possible to build a winner in such an
extreme environment. The Rockies have won 90 games in two of the last three
years. In those two seasons, they have finished midpack in runs allowed. So I
don’t see this as a particularly compelling story anymore, despite the fact
that I just dedicated enough words to the subject for it to have actually
counted as one of my “five questions” had I felt the urge to include it.
如果以這種極端的場地當主場，都可以打造一支常勝軍，你還能多要求什麼? 落磯過去三
年裡有兩年打出90勝以上的成績。在這兩季(07跟09年)裡，投手群的掉分在聯盟排中段班
即使球場的因素讓我不得不花一個問題的篇幅去說明，我仍然覺得：問題不大。
Question one: Can this team make the playoffs WITHOUT a crazy second-half run?
第一問：如果不靠下半季爆走，這支球隊打的進季後賽嗎?
We all remember the Rox’s magical 2007 season. It featured a .714 September
that got them into the playoffs with a one-game playoff against the Padres to
get the wild card. They then swept the Phillies and Diamondbacks to get to
the World Series before they were shot down by the Red Sox in similarly
decisive fashion.
我們都記得洛磯的07年驚奇之旅。九月份打出.714的勝率，讓洛磯得以靠加賽擊敗教士隊
，拿下國聯外卡進入季後賽。接下來就更神奇了，他們接連橫掃費城人及響尾蛇，闖進世
界大賽，不過隨後也被紅襪壓倒性地4:0橫掃，結束這神奇的一季。
Last year’s team had a similarly shaped season with the Rockies making a
dramatic run, culminating in a .667 September. Their best run was actually in
June, when they won 17 of 18 starting June 4 and ending on June 22.
去年洛磯捲土重來，戲劇性地又在九月打出.667的勝率。在六月份甚至18場球裡只輸過一
場。
Is there something inherent about the way that these two rosters were
constructed that enabled them to run off huge streaks? Or is this something
that isn’t all that rare with 90- and 92-win teams and the late-season
timing of the September runs make them more memorable than streaks that other
very good teams made in May or July?
糾竟，讓洛磯能在這兩年演出下半季爆走的戲碼，跟他們建軍的策略有何關聯? 還是這對
一支能拿90跟92勝的球隊來說，其實並不算罕見。而且，我們是不是總是會記得那些拉尾
盤的隊伍，反倒不記得球季初就很猛的勁旅?
Question Two: Should Troy Tulowitzki be a trendy darkhorse MVP candidate?
第二問：Troy Tulowitzki 能否成為MVP黑馬?
It’s a sucker bet to lay down your chips on anybody not named Albert Pujols
winning the MVP. And you can’t walk down the street anymore without running
into a sabermetrician waiting to tell you how hideously overlooked Chase
Utley is. And there are great reasons for both of these things. Pujols is the
best player in the game. And Utley has been the best player on the last two
NL champs and he is better than teammates Jimmy Rollins and Ryan Howard, both
of whom have MVP trophies. Utley and Pujols are practically perfect players,
the best hitters in the league, the best defenders at their positions in
baseball, and excellent baserunners.
如果你不賭美國高國慶(Albert Pujols)拿下國聯MVP，雨刷一定會笑你好傻好天真。隨便
走在路上，數據達人也會等著告訴你，忍者阿特利(Chase Utley)多麼不被票選MVP的記者
重視。他們都有道理。Pujols是當今最好的棒球選手，Utley身處國聯冠軍隊伍，表現甚
至比拿過MVP的隊友(Rollins、Howard)還棒。事實上，Utley跟Pujols就是神，不僅是最
棒的打者、最棒的野手、甚至連跑壘都很有一套。
Nevertheless, it is time for Troy Tulowitzki to become a household name. He
is the best player on the team by a fair amount. And he is entering what
should be his peak. Given his abilities at shortstop, a guy who goes
.297/.377/.552 is insanely valuable, even taking park effects into account.
If he stays healthy and experiences much of any kind of growth in his age
25-29 seasons, he seems like a reasonable bet to be one of the best players
in the National League.
儘管如此， 大家還是應該把Troy Tulowitzki這個名字記起來。他已經是隊上最棒的球員
好一陣子了，而且正要進入生涯顛峰期呢! 加上Tulo還是游擊手，就算把主場威能考慮進
去，能打出.297/.377/.552這種成績還是好到掉渣。如果在25~29歲的球季能夠維持健康
跟球技上的進步，他有可能晉身國聯最佳球員之林。
Question Three: Do they have a realistic chance to be the best defensive team
in the NL?
第三問：洛磯有可能成為國聯最佳防守球隊嗎?
With all apologies to the gloves of Tulowitzki, Ian Stewart, Clint Barmes,
Chris Iannetta, and the still competent Todd Helton, this largely depends on
a secondary question that I find to be an interesting thing to watch, which
is how will the Rockies apportion playing time in the outfield among Carlos
Gonzalez, Dexter Fowler, Brad Hawpe, and Seth Smith.
先向Tulowitzki、Stewart、Barmes、Iannetta、Helton一干內野手的手套說聲抱歉。這
個問題其實有很大一部分要看洛磯隊怎麼配置外野手(Carlos Gonzalez、Dexter Fowler
、Brad Hawpe跟Seth Smith)的上場時間，這會是一個有趣的觀察重點。
Now that they have thrown Garrett Atkins overboard, the only likely regular
that is an obvious achilles' heel in the field is Hawpe. It is understandable
as he is what he has always been, a converted first baseman playing on an
outfield corner. The less they use him in the outfield, the better they are
at turning batted balls into outs. Gonzalez, Fowler, and Smith have the
ability to be one of the best units in baseball at chasing down airborne
baseballs. But it is easy to understand why they would continue to use him
despite the defensive effects. A career .283/.377/.498 hitter is still a
career .283/.377/.498 hitter. Eventually he will make somebody a wonderful DH.
既然Garrett Atkins已經琵琶別抱了，洛磯防守陣勢中最大的要害很明顯就是Hawpe。
由於他是從一壘轉換到右外野守備，我這麼說想必大家都能明白。只要他越少上場，外野
就越能穩穩抓出局數。Gonzalez, Fowler，跟Smith追逐飛球的能力無庸置疑。但是即便
大家都知道這點，洛磯還是會繼續排Hawpe先發。這太容易理解了，一個生涯交出
.283/.377/.498的打者…不管其他地方再怎麼爛還是一個.283/.377/.498的打者。
也許最後他就會轉戰美聯打DH了吧!
Question Four: Is Jorge de la Rosa for real?
第四問：Jorge de la Rosa是真貨嗎?
Before he became Rockies property in one of the more remarkably successful
waiver trades in recent memory, de la Rosa wandered around professional
baseball for 10 years, flashing plus stuff, but ultimately demonstrating no
extended periods of success with a 5.2 walks per 9 and 6.4 K per 9 and
allowing 190 runs in 274 career major league innings.
在洛磯以近來最成功的waiver交易把de la Rosa攔入麾下之前，10年來他一直是棒球界的
浪人(註2)。擁有絕佳的球路，最終卻無法延續他的勝利，這些年來的成績是K/9=6.4、
BB/9=5.2，在274局裡丟掉了190分!!
註2：de la Rosa跟陳江河一樣被亞利桑那響尾蛇隊簽下，接下來在紅襪小聯盟磨練，
大聯盟初登板則是在釀酒人，之後又在皇家待了一年半，隨後才加入洛磯。
With the Rockies, he has been a revelation with 27 quality starts in 55 tries
with greatly improved 4.1 and 9.2 walk- and strikeout-per 9 rates. If he can
maintain this kind of improvement, the Rockies have a mid-rotation fixture.
穿上洛磯球衣後，他就像穿上黃色聖衣般變身火星人。在55場先發裡投出27場優質先
發，同時BB/9降低變成4.1，K/9卻上升到驚人的9.2。如果他能維持這種進步，洛磯的中
段輪值就不用煩惱了。
Question Five: Can Chris Iannetta hold onto the starting gig all year?
第五問：Chris Iannetta能保住整年先發的地位嗎?
Iannetta has a lot going for him. He is a better than average glove. He hits
for power and draws a fair number of walks. He has a career 103 OPS+, which
is excellent for a catcher. However, entering his age 27 season, he has yet
to keep the starting spot all year. Last season he lost time to Yorvit
Torrealba down the stretch as his batting average slumped and ended at .228.
Despite the ugly BA, his power and patience were enough to make him a
more-than-serviceable offensive catcher with a .344 OBP and .460 SLG.
Iannetta的優勢很多。他的防守比平均更好，能夠幹砲同時也能靠著四壞球上壘。他生涯
的OPS+是103，這對一個捕手來說算優異的了。不過，即將進入27歲，Iannetta卻從來沒
有整年都是主戰捕手過。去年因為打擊率只比裴翊沒男友的機率高一點(.228)，先發時間
分了很多給老將Torrealba。不過不看打擊率的話，交出.344上壘率跟.460長打率還是讓
他比高志綱更像個攻擊捕手!
If he can hold his K rate in check (he fanned 75 times in 289 at bats) and
recover some of his lost BABIP (.245 in ’09, .283 career), he stands a good
chance of posting a career high in games played, at-bats, and most other
counting stats, outrunning Miguel Olivo’s power, K’s, and NO walks.
如果他能將被三振數控制得宜(去年是289打數裡75次)，同時將去年過低的BABIP(.245)拉
上來(生涯是.283)，Iannetta還是很有機會在各項攻擊數據上交出生涯最佳成績。相對於
二號捕手Miguel Olivo，Iannetta在砲火、三振數跟保送數上都略勝一籌。
Bonus Question: If Huston Street’s balky shoulder remains a problem, what
happens?
加一問：如果Huston Street的玻璃肩好不了，接下來怎麼辦?
From a fantasy baseball angle, the answer is simply that Franklin Morales
slides in and picks up some saves. But the bullpen in Denver isn’t
especially deep and moving one of the few Rockies relievers up in the pecking
order exposes more high leverage seventh- and eighth-inning appearances to
the field of characters like Taylor Buchholz and Manny Corpas. That isn’t
likely the end of the world, but it isn’t something I would be feeling good
about.
以FB玩家的角度來看，這問題的答案很簡單，只要把Franklin Morales撿進來，賺幾個救
援點就搞定了。但是洛磯的牛棚並不是這麼人才濟濟。讓其中一員接任終結者將會讓第七
八局陷入危機，因為你必須讓Buchholz或是Corpas這種中繼投手上場。(編按:這兩
隻遊戲裡面很好用啊XD)這個問題不是世界末日，不過如果發生了當然也不會感到開心。
As I am writing this, Street is scheduled to throw, but has no listed time
table for starting the season. MRI’s have come back clean so this may be an
irrelevant question.
在我動筆的同時，Street已預定投球的日期，但尚未決定何時能回到場上。MRI顯示正常
，或許這個問題也不大。
(編按：Street開季DL，預計五月初可以回到場上)
翻譯心得：今年的洛磯是支讓人充滿期待的球隊。陣容年輕、與去年相比主力幾乎完全相
同。有太多的想像可以加諸於這支球隊身上。不過這篇文章中似乎給洛磯隊的防守評價還
蠻高的，這跟我從中文觀戰指南上看到的不太一樣，也許這也會是開季後的觀戰重點。目
前看來洛磯的投手問題遠大於野手，各項攻擊指標在春訓聯盟領先的同時，幾個主力投手
(Francis、Street、Buchholz)紛紛掛傷號。當然哪隊沒有傷兵，不過對目前幾個潛力
投手新秀(Matzek、Friederich、Chacin)尚未ready的洛磯來說，比較承擔不起投手接連受
傷的影響。接下來會怎麼發展，開季就見分曉，棒球迷的冬天終於過去了!!
今年也要繼續支持洛磯隊!! Rox GOGOGO~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~