http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/five-questions-florida-marlins6/
by Bryan Donovan
March 29, 2010
1. Will Ricky Nolasco bounce back from his awful 2009?
Ricky Nolasco會從他糟糕的09球季中反彈嗎？
There is an argument that questions whether 2009 was all that awful in the
first place for Ricky Nolasco. All the major defense-independent pitching
statistics were very happy with his performance last season. He struck out 25
percent of non-IBB batters last season and walked just 4.8 percent of those
batters. Those rates led to a sparkling 20.3 percent K-BB differential, good
for fifth in baseball among qualified starters. For context, Nolasco ended up
a smidge behind Dan Haren and Zack Greinke and a bit ahead of such luminaries
as Jon Lester and Roy Halladay.
首先，Nolasco的09球季是否那麼糟就頗受爭議。所有主要投手獨立（去除防守影響）數據
反映出他去年的表現相當令人滿意。他三振了25%非故意四壞的打者，並且只保送了其中
的4%。這些數據造就了亮眼的20.3%K-BB差（譯按：不知怎麼算的？BB/K=44/195=22.6%）
在所有達到規定局數投手中是第五好的。只稍微落後給Haren和Greinke，並且還略為領先
Lester和Halladay等一流投手。
Nolasco’s main issues that led him to post an ERA north of 9.00 at the start
of the season were an out-of-line BABIP and strand rate. Even after returning
to his prime form after a short stint in Triple-A, Nolasco still ended the
season with a .336 BABIP and a 61.0 percent strand rate, figures well off the
league average. While there is concern that those rates may have something to
do with his poor performances out of the stretch as opposed to the windup,
the 2009 season stretched that theory to an extreme. With even moderate
regression to the mean, Nolasco should revert to a performance closer to his
2008 season. Both CHONE and ZiPS have him posting FIP of around 3.65, and if
he approaches an innings count similar to that of 2008 or 2009, that should
be worth close to four wins for the Marlins.
Nolasco季初超過9.00的自責分率主要肇因於離譜的BABIP與殘壘率。即使他從3A回來後找
回了自己的身手，還是在季末留下遠超出聯盟平均的.336BABIP和61.0%殘壘率。只要這些
數據可以回復合理水準，Nolasco應該可以交出接近08球季水準的表現。CHONE和ZiPS兩個
系統計算他的FIP都在3.65左右。如果他能貢獻與08、09球季接近的局數，應該可以為球隊
多拿4勝。
2. What can we expect from Gaby Sanchez?
我們可以從Gaby Sanchez身上期待些什麼？
Gaby Sanchez knows he is simply holding down the fort for top prospect Logan
Morrison, expected to arrive by 2011 at earliest. However, with Morrison
struggling in Spring Training this month, Sanchez has at least wrapped up a
job for this season. Drafted in 2005 as a catcher out of the University of
Miami, Sanchez was transitioned to first base in the minors, where his
line-drive bat plays less impressively. Still, his minor league track record
has been solid; Sanchez has batted .302/.392/.485 in his minor league career,
including an impressive .314/.404/.513 season in 2008 that earned him a
Southern League MVP award.
Sanchez知道自己的地位正在被球隊的頂級新秀Morrison威脅當中，最快可能2011球季就會
被取代。然而，Morrison在春訓中掙扎的表現讓Sanchez至少在本季可以保留他的工作。05
年以捕手身份被馬林魚選中的Sanchez，在小聯盟中移防到一壘的位置。他在小聯盟的生涯
成績是出色的.302/.392/.485，包括08球季足以贏得南方聯盟MVP的.314/.404/.513表現。
The primary concern with Sanchez has always been whether his bat would
suffice while playing first base in the majors. To overcome a positional
adjustment between –10 to –12.5 runs per 162 games at first base, a first
baseman would have to post a .352 wOBA (along with an average glove) to be
considered an average player. The major prognostication systems are split on
his ability to do this in 2010. CHONE projects a .348 wOBA that would be
right around average for a first baseman, while ZiPS and PECOTA are a little
less optimistic, projecting him closer to the league average hitter. Sanchez
has always shown good discipline (minor league career unintentional BB% of
11.7 percent) and contact (career K% of 12.0 percent) at the plate, but with
only decent power (career ISO of .185), can he survive playing at the most
offensively demanding position? The Marlins are hoping he can answer that
question affirmatively in 2010.
Sanchez主要的問題在於他的棒子是否符合大聯盟一壘手的水準。他必須克服守備位置的
調整以符合大聯盟一壘手平均水準的標準（.352 wOBA與平均水準的守備）。幾個主要的預
測系統包括CHONE預測的.348 wOBA接近一壘手的平均標準，但較不樂觀的ZiPS和PECOTA預
測他比較接近聯盟平均打者的水準。Sanchez的選球（扣除IBB後，BB/PA=11.7%）與打擊技
巧（K/AB=12.0%）是一向表現出色的，但他的砲管只能還算OK（IsoP=.185），他可以在最
需要火力支援的守位生存嗎？馬林魚希望他能在10球季給予肯定的答覆。
3. Which veteran retread relievers will find success in the Marlins bullpen
this year?
哪一位老將會在馬林魚牛棚東山再起？
It seems like every season, the Marlins bring in junkyard relief arms into
their bullpen, throw them into important roles during the season, and watch
them flourish for the team. Last year, the Marlins picked up a slew of
successful retreads, from bullpen ace Kiko Calero (1.95 ERA, 2.06 FIP) to
set-up men Dan Meyer (3.06 ERA, 3.87 FIP) and Brian Sanches (2.56 ERA, 4.14
FIP). While the midseason addition of Luis Ayala flopped (he made 10
appearances and gave up 10 runs on his way back to the minors), Brendan
Donnelly’s sub-2.00 ERA and 2.82 FIP shined in 25 innings.
就像過去的每個球季一樣，馬林魚總會做好資源回收再利用，讓幾個沒人要的投手擔任牛
棚要角，並且為球隊貢獻良多。去年就有不少成功的例子：牛棚王牌Calero（1.95 ERA,
2.06 FIP）、佈局投手Meyer（3.06 ERA, 3.87 FIP）與Sanches（2.56 ERA, 4.14 FIP)
。還有季中加入的卻相當失敗的Ayala（回小聯盟前，十場出賽掉十分），Donnelly則是在
25局的投球中繳出不到2的ERA與2.82的FIP。
The Marlins once again looked to employ this strategy this season, as the
team invited a plethora of fireballing veteran relievers such as Jose Veras,
Mike MacDougal, Derrick Turnbow, and Seth McClung to Spring Training to try
out for the team. Only one will make the roster, as Veras has impressed
enough to win a seventh-inning role, while the others have been or will soon
be released. Veras racks up a lot of strikeouts and walks, a quality akin to
many other Marlins relievers. The key to his success, along with the entire
bullpen’s, is to limit home runs. Unfortunately, the team has only one
reliever who has induced more ground balls than fly balls in his career
(Burke Badenhop), meaning fans will once again be crossing their fingers
every time a fly ball goes up in the late innings. With the team’s bullpen
BABIP and strand rates abnormally low last season and much of the 2009
bullpen returning to familiar roles in 2010, regression would call for a
decreased performance. Then again, we’ve seen strange bullpen success before
from Florida, so it would not be surprising if it happened again.
嚐到甜頭的馬林魚期待本季也能重施故技，春訓時便邀請了一干老牌火球男包括Veras、
MacDougal、Turnbow與McClung。其中只有Veras靠著春訓時的好表現贏得第七局投手的
角色，其他人則很快就被釋出。Veras擅長製造大量的三振與四壞球，具備與馬林魚牛棚
中其他投手相似的特質。包括Veras在內，整個牛棚成敗的關鍵便在於限制全壘打出現的
數目。不幸的是，全隊只有一名滾地球型的後援投手（Badenhop），代表球迷常常在比賽
後段出現飛球時祈禱一番。有鑑於去年好得不像話的BABIP與殘壘率，牛棚的原班人馬恐怕
在今年的表現會下修不少。然而我們一再地見證了馬林魚牛棚過去不可思議的成功，所以
就算再次發生也無須驚訝。
4. When am I going to see Mike Stanton?
我們什麼時候可以見到Mike Stanton？
Mike Stanton is one of the top prospects in all of baseball, and the power
and performance in Spring Training have all been very promising. But let’s
get one thing straight: Stanton is not in the same boat as Atlanta Braves
prospect Jason Heyward. Heyward has succeeded at every level in his short
time in the minors, and while Stanton has been no slouch, he did stumble a
bit in the move to Double-A in the middle of last season.
Stanton是棒球界最頂尖的新秀之一，他的力量與春訓的表現相當令人期待。但我們講白
點：Stanton並不如Jason Heyward那般優秀。Heyward短暫的農場生涯中在每個等級都取
得成功，雖然Stanton沒遇到什麼大挫折，但他去年季中升到2A後的表現卻有點踢到鐵板。
While Stanton may have the ridiculous upside that a high-power prospect can
bring, he also brings considerable risk. In his minor league career, Stanton
has shown a penchant for the strikeout, striking out in 27.7 percent of his
minor league PAs so far in his career. If those strikeout rates continue,
Stanton might have a difficult time establishing enough contact in the majors
to take advantage of his absurd power tool. Stanton could maintain his OBP in
the majors with a halfway decent walk rate (career minor-league uintentional
BB% of 9.9 percent), but contact will ultimately determine whether he becomes
a hitter like Russell Branyan, a career part-timer with the strikeout stigma,
or a consistent star like Ryan Howard. Stanton’s defense in the outfield is
positive enough that it should guarantee him decent playing time and solid
contributions for the Marlins for the next few years.
雖然Stanton強大的力量擁有無限的發展可能，但同時也伴隨著必須考量的風險。在他的小
聯盟生涯中，有電風扇傾向的Stanton有高達27.7%的打數遭到三振。如果這樣的三振率持
續下去，Stanton可能需要一段苦日子才能在大聯盟發展出足以發揮自己暴力長打的打擊技
巧。Stanton或許可以靠著差強人意的保送率（小聯盟BB/AB=9.9%）在大聯盟維持上壘率，
但打擊技巧會決定他會成為哪一種打者：生涯受三振所苦而只能跑龍套的Russell Branyan
或是持續成功的明星球員Ryan Howard。Stanton在外野的防守功夫則足以保證他的上場時
間，並且在未來幾年都能為球隊做出堅實的貢獻。
That sort of production will probably not happen this year, though. The
Marlins have four additional fringe outfielders at higher minor league levels
than Stanton, and while none of them are impressive for the long-term, they
are capable of holding a major league job temporarily. In case injury or
ineffectiveness plague Chris Coghlan, Cameron Maybin, or Cody Ross, one of
Brett Carroll, Scott Cousins, Bryan Petersen, or Jai Miller will take over
for the Marlins. Stanton should receive a full season of development in
Double-A this year and a cup of coffee in September, but something would have
to go terribly wrong for the team to call him up for serious playing time
during the season.
他的產能或許在今年還不會出現。馬林魚擁有四位在農場層級高於Stanton的外野手，但沒
有一位能讓人留下長期的印象，只能短暫的上大聯盟觀光。除非有人受傷或是Coghlan、
Maybin與Ross表現不彰，Carroll、Cousins、Petersen或Miller之中一人才能取而代之。
Stanton將會擁有一個完整的2A球季好好發展，並在九月時上來喝杯咖啡，除非季中球隊出
現了可怕的亂流，才有可能提前讓他升格扛下重責大任。
5. Where will the Marlins finish in the NL East?
馬林魚季末時在國聯東區的排名如何？
The NL East is as tough a division as you will find in the National League.
Both the Philadelphia Phillies and Atlanta Braves are very close to the
division crown according to the major prognostication systems. The New York
Mets need health and some good bounces, but they are not terribly far from
competing. Only the Washington Nationals appear out of range of the top two
division spots.
國聯東區在國家聯盟中是情勢險峻的分區。費城人與勇士同時被預測為非常接近分區龍頭
桂冠的兩隻球隊。梅子則需要健康與一些正面的反彈，但是他們離競爭者的行列並不遠。
只有國民顯然地頂多只能爭分區老三。
The Marlins likely lie somewhere in between the Braves and Nationals in terms
of true talent. The projections have the team somewhere between 78 and 82
wins, with most sitting comfortably a bit below .500. My own personal guess
puts them at 83 wins, about even to their true talent level as calculated by
WAR last season. The team is guaranteed another excellent year from superstar
Hanley Ramirez and solid campaigns from its pitching duo of Josh Johnson and
Nolasco. The question marks lie in the bullpen, with new faces taking on
significant roles and regression likely rearing its ugly head, and the back
of the rotation. The last three starters do not invoke much in the way of
confidence, as each of Anibal Sanchez, Chris Volstad, and former San Diego
Padre Clay Hensley have their own potentially crippling issues to work out in
the regular season (injury, home runs, and not pitching effectively in the
majors since 2006, respectively). The offense remains promising, with
Ramirez, Dan Uggla, and Coghlan leading the way, but will Gaby Sanchez and
Cameron Maybin contribute positively this season after both flopped as
favorites entering 2009?
馬林魚真正的才能大致位於勇士與國民之間。勝場的落點分析介於78到82勝之間，略低於
五成勝率。我個人根據去年WAR的計算，猜測他們可以拿到83勝。這隻球隊實力的保證來自
於繳出另一個非常優秀球季的超級巨星Hanley Ramirez，以及投手陣中的Josh Johnson與
Nolasco。問題在於他們牛棚中擔任重要角色的新面孔，以及後段輪值。無法給人足夠信任
的後三號先發投手包括Sanchez（受傷）、Volstad（受易全壘打砲轟）與前教士的Hensley
（06年後就沒能投出效能的表現）都有他們各自的潛在問題。Ramirez、Uggla和開路先鋒
Coghlan領軍的打線還是令人期待，但Sanchez和Maybin能夠同時從不甚成功的09球季中振
起，在今年提供正面的貢獻嗎？
Unfortunately, those questions will have to be answered in the fire of the
regular season as opposed to on paper. The Marlins should get enough
contributions from their youngest players and newest bullpen faces to eke out
83 wins. With a few lucky bounces and surprising performances (something the
Marlins have been known for in the last few seasons), contention for the Wild
Card is not out of the question.
不幸地，這些問題都要等球季正式開火後而非紙上談兵可以解答。馬林魚必須從他們最年
輕的球員與牛棚的新進成員中取得讓他們足以贏得超過83勝的貢獻。加上一些幸運的反彈
與驚奇的表現（就像馬林魚過去幾季所廣為人知的），外卡的競爭並非遙不可及。