For better or worse, there are certain things pertaining to the Kansas City
Royals that we know for sure. We know that Zack Greinke is preposterously
good. We know that Joakim Soria and Billy Butler are solid players. We know
that David DeJesus, Alberto Callaspo, and Brayan Pena are competent, but
flawed. We know that the team will likely get at least 1,500 at bats from
sub-replacement level players.
Here are five things that we don’t know about the 2010 Royals.
不論如何.對皇家來說有些事是肯定的.
我們都知道魔神是誇張的威.我們都知道Joakim Soria跟Billy Butler都是很穩定的球員
我們都知道David DeJesus, Alberto Callaspo,以及Brayan Pena都是有一些缺點的好球
員
我們都知道這隻球隊至少有1500個打數是替補型球員在使用
這裡.5件你不可不知道關於2010年的皇家隊
1. What’s up with the enigmatic hitters?
Let’s leave aside the weirdness that is Rick Ankiel’s career path and the
fact that it would hardly surprise most observers if he hit .280/.340/.525
and secured a two-year deal from a contender or if he hit .220/.260/.330 and
spent the offseason contemplating life with the St. Paul Saints. Let’s also
leave aside the prospect of a dead cat bounce from Jose Guillen.
What I am getting to with this first question is that the Royals have an
interesting pair of third basemen who have confounded fans and analysts since
being first-round picks out of Big 12 college programs.
The story of Alex Gordon is pretty universally known at this point so I don’
t need to delve too far into it, which is good since others have talked about
it more eloquently than I could. But it really bears mentioning that all of
the hype that preceded him on his way to Kansas City was justified. He was
legitimately one of the top prospects in the 2005 draft after tearing up
college baseball for three years at Nebraska. He was legitimately on the
short list of best prospects in baseball after posting an OPS north of 1.000
in his first pro season with Double-A Wichita. But his name brings to mind
much suffering among fantasy owners and Royals fans. He has shown flashes of
being a significant offensive force in his time in western Missouri. But
since he was anointed as the golden child, the heir to George Brett’s
throne, he has struggled at the plate and in the field. He has had hip
surgery. And he has basically made Royals fans question their faith in the
baseball gods. It simply seems like he is a perpetual enigma at this point.
For some time now I have worried about Gordon falling into what I call the
Pat Burrell/Voltaire Effect. The theory is that at times when a player comes
to a city with unreasonably high expectations, sometimes it gets in the way
of the local populace's ability to appreciate what the player actually
becomes. “The perfect is the enemy of the good” runs amok. I name it after
Pat Burrell because I never really felt that Phillies fans got over the
expectations that came with him when he was a massive prospect. He was a
pretty good player during his time in Philly, but most of the attention was
focused on his weaknesses rather than his strengths and he was never
embraced. The other good example is JD Drew, who is loathed by fans in
multiple cities and has never really been appreciated for the high OBP and
good defense he provides. This is mainly because of the fact that he goes
through some extended power slumps and is almost assured of missing some time
every season. I worry that even if Alex Gordon does develop into his
generation’s Dean Palmer (a comp I have kind of liked for about 16 months
now), the fanbase will still be so stuck on his perception as the next Brett
that it will get in the way of their appreciation for what they actually have.
The other third baseman, Josh Fields, lacks the pedigree that Gordon brings,
but he is an interesting flier to take given that he is entering his age 27
season with two seasons between him and a campaign where he slugged 23 home
runs in 100 games with the White Sox. Let’s hope that a sense of obligation
to Guillen and Scott Podsednik doesn’t get in the way of the real work of
getting Fields enough reps to see what they actually have.
問題1.這些猜不透的打者怎麼了?
讓我們先把Rick Ankiel的傳說擺到一邊吧
事實上他的打擊並不讓大家感到興奮.如果他打出了.280/.340/.525的三圍.那麼他或許
會在競爭中獲得一份兩年約.但如果是.220/.260/.330.那麼他可能會在季後思考獨立聯
盟的生活
對了.還有人再期待Jose Guillen嗎?
我第一個問題主要是問皇家三壘那一對寶.這兩個昔日的第一輪讓球迷跟專家都不知道誰
才是正統
Alex Gordon的故事應該無人不曉吧.那我就不說太多.他的好說不定大家都比我會說.但是
大家都在他皇家的一路上過份看好他.這對他來說是情有可原的.在內布拉斯加大學三年
裡他橫掃對手後.很合理地.讓他在2005年是第一輪的熱門.在2A他打完第一個職業球季繳
出OPS超過1.000的成績.他也很合理的在潛力新秀的名單上
但是他的名字卻讓FB玩家以及皇家球迷痛苦.雖然他早早就在西密蘇里展現他的攻擊火力.
但自從大家幫他鍍金.期待他是George Brett的王位繼承人之後.他似乎在打擊跟守備上有
點掙扎此外也動過屁屁手術
這讓皇家迷想問問棒球之神.Gordon看起來像是個未解之謎
有時候我會懷疑Gordon陷入一種狀況.我稱之為Pat Burrell-伏爾泰效應
這理論是指當球員來到一個對他充滿高度期待的城市.有時候這些當地人的賞識也許會阻
礙它的發展 "完美是夠好的敵人"
我以Pat Burrell為名.是因為我從來沒看過費城人對一個人有這樣的高度期待.而且他又
是一名強力新秀.他在費城人是個好球員.但是大部分的焦點都放在他的缺點.而非他的力
量.他也從來不接受.另一個例子是JD Drew.他被許多城市球迷所討厭.從來不會賞識它的
高上壘率以及好的守備.這是因為他的爆發力一直下滑.甚至幾乎每季有時候會消失.
我擔心就算Gordon發展成Dean Palmer.但fanbase網站還是會堅定他是下一個Brett.這就
會阻礙他們真正的發展
另一個三壘手Josh Fields.缺乏Gordon所擁有的皇家血統.但他是個有趣的空降部隊.這是
他27歲的球季.2個球季前.他在白襪隊100場比賽裡敲出23轟..希望Guillen跟Podsednik能
有自知之明.別妨礙Fields的發展
2. What’s up with the enigmatic pitchers?
Let’s get beyond the fun of having the most sabermetrically friendly pitcher
in the game, and the question of whether Trey Hillman will ruin Gil Meche’s
arm, and the risk/reward involved with employing both Juan Cruz and Robinson
Tejeda.
What I am getting at with the second question deals with a pair of pitchers
that nobody can figure out. Everybody agrees that Hiram Kyle Davies has the
stuff to be a good major league pitcher, but 99 starts in, we still have no
idea whether he will ever figure it out enough to live up to his promise.
Luke Hochevar brought a similar kind of weirdness to the party and cranked it
up to 11 with what has been well documented as one of the stranger seasons in
recent memory. On the other hand both people and projection systems seem
pretty convinced that they know what he is and that what he is happens to be
a decent, but not great mid-rotation, worm-killing innings sponge. That seems
reasonable to me.
In the end, this is probably less important than the first question given
that the organization has a tide of legitimate starting pitching prospects
filtering up through the system, highlighted by Aaron Crow and Michael
Montgomery, both of whom may be knocking on Kauffman Stadium’s door by the
end of the season.
問題2.這些猜不透的投手怎麼了?
讓我們先高興一下擁有數據派代表的投手(Brian Bannister).並且詢問一下Hillman是否
摧殘Meche的手臂.還有繼續使用Juan Cruz和Robinson Tejeda是危機還是轉機呢?
沒有人可以理解我這第二個問題是在說另一對寶吧
大家都同意Kyle Davies有成為優秀大聯盟投手的特質吧..但是給了幾百次機會.我們仍
然不知道他是否會突然開竅實現他的承諾
Hochevar對皇家來說.也相當詭異甚至更嚴重.應該會繳出很好的成績.但卻是個充滿問號
的一季
另一方面這對寶跟預測系統看起來似乎都讓大家知道這他們極限在哪.卻只是個不怎麼好
的中段輪值.吃局數的投手.這或許比較合理
最後.這個重要性次於第一個問題所給的.球隊有一個未來輪值的方向.備受重視的Aaron
Crow以及Michael Montgomery.那麼這兩個人有誰會在季後被踢出皇家球場呢.
3. What’s up with the enigmatic prospects?
Ignoring the inherent dangers involved with having the majority of your farm
system’s best fruit fighting the ever looming threat of TINSTAAPP and the
fact that the system’s best up-the-middle prospect going down with Tommy
John surgery before we were even a third of the way through March, one thing
that bears watching in 2010 on the farm is how a pair of high first rounders
perform in their attempts to rebound from disappointing 2009 seasons.
Mike Moustakas went from being the 13th ranked prospect in the game according
to Baseball America to being fourth in the Royals organization after he
posted a sub-.300 OBP and confirmed the worries of scouts about his body type
and his ability to stay on the left side of the infield.
Eric Hosmer showed a selective eye at the plate, but hit for very little
power and the Royals actually had problems finding him a pair of prescription
glasses.
Still, both players were top 3 picks very recently, and nobody called them
overdrafts at the time. There are plenty of believers.
問題3.這些猜不透的新秀又怎麼了?
忽視內在的危險.包括在享用農場培養出的大物時該考慮到TINSTAAPP的潛在威脅.還有就
目前過完三分之一的三月為止農場前段班到中段班新秀都動過TJ手術
2010年農場裡的觀點就是這一對第一輪高順位的新秀要怎麼從失望的09年觸底反彈
Mike Moustakas
曾經是BA新秀排名第13的新秀.在他只繳出.300上壘率後.目前在皇家農場只名列第四.球
探們都覺得他的體格不適合待在內野左半邊
Eric Hosmer
有選球眼.但力量小.球團確實需要幫他找更符合的眼鏡
他們都是近幾年前3輪的新秀.但是當時卻沒有人說他們順位過高.可見當時大家都瞎了
4. How much difference does a medical staff make?
There was a lot of discussion in 2009 about the competence of the Royals'
medical staff and about management’s ability to make reasonable decisions
regarding the well being of their players. Beyond the issue of Hosmer’s
eyesight, there were multiple examples of decisions that were easily second
guessed by careful observers. Things came to a head with Rany Jazayerli being
deemed persona non grata among the Royals front office.
In the offseason, the medical staff has been rebuilt with new head trainer
Nick Kenney being imported from the Cleveland organization. With the Royals
roster currently being a classic example of the stars and scrubs concept,
injuries to Greinke, Soria and Butler are the kinds of things that keep
Royals fans up at night and could make the already tenuous situation look
even worse.
問題4.組一隻醫龍隊有多大的不同?
在2009年有許多討論有關皇家醫龍隊的能力還有隊球員的決策管理能力.有關Hosmer的視
力議題.當時有許多的例子決策可以讓觀察者容易猜測情狀.(這裡看不太懂 @@)
在休季時.醫龍隊改造新的頭部訓練員.來自克里夫蘭的Nick Kenney.塑造第一流的球星跟
營造思想.Greinke, Soria and Butler受傷時可以保持跟球迷之間的距離.讓他們在無力
的狀態下也能面對
5. What kind of a “process” involves stacking the roster with flotsam like
Jason Kendall, Scott Podsednik, Yuniesky Betancourt, Willie Bloomquist, and
Jose Guillen?
Following the Royals requires a certain amount of blind optimism. Otherwise,
you really do run the risk of searching for a tall bridge to jump off of or
simply turning your attention to the Wizards by June 1. I am as prone to
buying into idiosyncratic ideas as anybody. But it seems that nobody who pays
an even marginal amount of attention to baseball can really understand how
something like this happens. There are good things happening on the farm and
there are some interesting sleepers on the ML roster. But Dayton Moore’s
taste in veteran players stinks.
問題5.收集一堆雞肋(像Jason Kendall,Scott Podsednik,Yuniesky Betancourt,
Willie Bloomquist和Jose Guillen)的目的是?
跟隨皇家隊.你需要無比的樂觀
否則.你就危險了.就像是找做高橋跳下去或是在6月1號時轉移注意力在巫師身上
我傾向購買任何有特色的球員.但.看起來沒有任何注意棒球的人了解.為何這種事會發生
對農場來說是好事.在大聯盟名單裡令人感興趣的人說不定會突然爆走.但重點是Dayton
Moore熱愛老將的臭味