作者:
JakeMcGee (Jake McGee)
2012-09-25 09:50:44Mike Trout, Miguel Cabrera, and Measuring Value
http://ppt.cc/9VGu
by Dave Cameron - September 19, 2012
It’s that time of year again – with just a few weeks left in the season,
baseball writers are turning their focus to the postseason awards, and as
usual, the MVP races are the ones that are going to get the most attention.
In the NL, the conversation is mostly about finding ways to make sure that
Ryan Braun doesn’t win his second straight trophy, with Buster Posey
stepping up to provide BBWAA members the out that they so desperately want.
Over in the AL, there hasn’t been as much discussion for most of the summer,
as Mike Trout has been running laps around the rest of the contenders, making
it hard to put together any kind of realistic argument for a non-Trout
candidate.
又到了決戰的時候 一堆棒球作家開始關注季賽獎項 而想當然的MVP是最受注目的
在NL因為Buster Posey優秀的表現 我們大概可以說Ryan Braun不大可能再次獲得MVP
而來看AL 幾乎在整個夏天 沒人能跟Mike Trout競爭
However, Miguel Cabrera is having a monstrous September, hitting
.373/.426/.797 over the last couple of weeks, and now that he’s taken the
lead in both batting average and runs batted, the talk of a potential “
triple crown” has breathed life into his candidacy. Jon Morosi went so far
as to call the decision to give Cabrera the award “a formality” and say
that it’s “obvious” that Cabrera is the right choice. Instead of engaging
in a hyperbole-off, however, let’s actually investigate the actual
differences between them this season and see whether the case for Cabrera
actually stands up to logic and reason.
然而胖卡布怪物般的9月成績(.373/.426/.797) 他現在在打擊率跟打點領先
有機會站上三冠王的頂點
Jon Morosi(FOXSports.com's writer)說胖卡布明顯的是MVP正確的選擇
現在讓我們來看看這兩人這季的差別
Thanks to the custom leaderboards, it’s easy to put Trout and Cabrera’s
season lines right next to each other for easy comparison. So, let’s just go
through and look at the actual differences between what they’ve done this
year, starting with their overall performances at the plate in the basic
counting statistics.
以下是兩人最簡單的出賽以及相關成績
Plate Appearances: Cabrera, +60
Singles: Cabrera, +2
Doubles: Cabrera, +14
Triples: Trout, +6
Home Runs: Cabrera, +13
Walks + Hit By Pitch: Cabrera, +1
Ground Into Double Plays: Cabrera, +21
Total Bases: Cabrera, +64
Outs Made: Cabrera, +54
Because Trout got called up to the Majors at the end of April, Cabrera has
played in 21 additional games, so most of the counting stats go in his favor.
And, Morosi has a legitimate point when he talks about number of games
played, as we can’t simply ignore the fact that Cabrera has played an
additional three weeks worth of games, creating value for his team in the
process.
因為Trout在4月底才被叫上來 所以比胖卡布少出賽21場
所以累積成績當然也的確是胖卡布領先
Morosi提到關鍵的一點就是這三個星期以來胖卡布的精采表現讓老虎繼續保持競爭力
However, that last category is the one that never gets mentioned, but is
perhaps the one that speaks the loudest out of all of them. Cabrera’s
additional playing time has earned him an additional 60 trips to the plate,
but in those 60 extra plate appearances, he’s made 54 extra outs. If we’re
going to depend on counting stats to measure the difference in value from a
quantity standpoint, we cannot ignore the fact that Cabrera’s propensity for
hitting into double plays — he leads the American League with 28 GIDPs —
has had a significant negative impact on the Tigers offense. We cannot
simply count up the number of additional positive benefits that the Tigers
have gotten from Cabrera’s playing time advantage without also accounting
for the negatives.
然後最後一個數據是幾乎不會被注意到的(Outs Made)
胖卡布多60打數卻多製造54個出局數
他打雙殺打是AL最多(28次) 的確是對老虎的進攻產生負面的影響
我們不能只看胖卡布對於球隊有正面的幫助 而忽略負面的
Of course, comparing double plays grounded into between a leadoff hitter and
a clean-up guy isn’t apples for apples, since Cabrera comes up with men on
base far more frequently. Cabrera is first in GIDPs in large part because he’
s second in GIDP opportunities — only Robinson Cano, with 144 chances to hit
into a double play this year, has had more GIDP opps — and Cabrera’s 138
GIDP opportunities is nearly double Trout’s 75, which is a natural byproduct
of their positions in the batting order. We shouldn’t just hold Cabrera’s
extra GIDP outs against him without adjusting for the context of his quantity
of chances.
當然比較第一棒跟三番的雙殺次數並不公平
胖卡布會有AL第一名的雙殺次數是因為他有第二多的雙殺機會(第一多是Cano的144次)
胖卡布雙殺機會有138次 Trout有75次
這跟棒次絕對是有非常大的關係
我們不能只單純看胖卡布的雙殺次數而不做些調整
But, of course, that’s exactly what the argument for Cabrera wants you to do
with RBIs. Ignore context, ignore opportunity, and just focus on the fact
that Cabrera has driven in 52 more runs than Trout has. If you’re going to
quote Cabrera’s RBI advantage, you must also quote his massive disadvantage
in GIDPs – they are the fruit of the same tree. The more intellectually
honest way to measure this value is through looking at both GIDPs and RBIs as
a function of plate appearances where those results were made possible by the
actions of the people batting in front of both players, but if you’re not
going to do that with RBIs, then you have to count the full weight of Cabrera
’s extra outs against him.
但是支持胖卡布的是請叫你看RBI 而忽略內容 忽略機會
只注意胖卡布比Trout多了52個RBI
如果你想要強調胖卡布的RBI優勢 那你就該接受他GIDP次數多的批評
因為GIDP跟RBI是同源的(更多RBI機會也有更多GIDP的機會)
If you’d rather actually adjust for those opportunity differences, however,
we should probably note that Cabrera has had 415 baserunners when he’s
batted this year, compared to just 274 for Trout. Cabrera has driven in 52
additional runs while having an extra 141 guys on base because of where he
hits in the line-up. If we look at runs driven in as a percentage of total
men on base when both men hit, we see that Cabrera has driven in 31% of his
total baserunners, while Trout is at 28% – both way above the league average
of 15%, and a difference much smaller than raw RBI totals would lead you to
believe.
如果要做些調整 我們先記得胖卡布打擊時有415個跑者在壘上
Trout則是274個
在比Trout多141個跑者的情況下 胖卡布多打了52個RBI
如果我們看兩位打者把跑者打回來的機率
胖卡布:31% Trout:28% 聯盟平均則是15%
這樣看來兩者的RBI差距也就沒那麼大了
There’s really two choices here – ignore opportunities and give Cabrera
credit for driving in many more runs while also penalizing him for creating
many more outs, or adjust for opportunity and realize that Cabrera hasn’t
actually been that much better than Trout at bringing his teammates home once
they get on base. And, of course, none of this accounts for anything that
happens after the two of them leave the batters box, or the value of the
extra runs that Trout creates with his legs.
有兩個選項
1.忽略跑者的機會 讓胖卡布有RBI的絕對優勢 但是他也製造更多出局數
2.調整打回跑者的機會 然後瞭解胖卡布與Trout的差距沒那麼大
然而這不包括Trout離開打擊區製造的價值