AL MVP Debate: We Did This Two Years Ago
http://ppt.cc/DoV5
by Dave Cameron - September 21, 2012
While I wrote most of what I had to say about the AL MVP discussion a few
days ago, I do have one more question I want to ask – what’s so different
about Cabrera this season compared to 2010?
當我前幾天寫了AL MVP的文章 我想到一個問題
今年跟2010年的MVP競爭有什麼不同?
Most of the case for Cabrera’s candidacy rests upon the idea that he’s
having an historic offensive performance, and that denying him the award
would be some kind of historical injustice. But, if we look at his 2012
season and his 2010 season side by side, can we really make the case that
this year is all that different from what he did two years ago?
大部分支持胖卡布的人說的理由是他有著史詩般的成績
如果不給他MVP獎項 是某種歷史上的不公平
但是 如果我們看他2012年跟2010年的成績 我們真的能說他這兩年有什麼不同?
(譯按:難道穩定也是種錯誤T_T)
Because he has almost identical amounts of plate appearances between the two
seasons, it’s easy enough to just compare raw totals side by side, so we’ll
start there.
因為他現在幾乎跟兩年前的打數一樣 直接比較變得相當容易
Season PA 1B 2B 3B HR BB GDP
2010 648 96 45 1 38 89 17
2012 646 112 38 0 41 63 28
Cabrera has 16 more singles and three more home runs, but he has eight fewer
non-HR extra base hits, so the overall net in total bases is just +11. In
other words, while his batting average is slightly higher, he’s actually
hitting for slightly less power this year than he did two years ago, which
you can see in his seasonal rate statistics.
胖卡布多16隻1B 3隻HR 但是就扣除HR的長打來說 他還少了8隻
所以壘打數來說只增加了11
換句話說 雖然他打擊率增加了 但是他也比2年前降低了一些長打力
Season AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+
2010 0.328 0.420 0.622 0.429 169
2012 0.333 0.398 0.613 0.421 169
A five point increase in average and a nine point decrease in slugging are,
for all intents and purposes, a tie. There’s no real meaningful difference
in those numbers. The one area where there is a meaningful change is in his
walk rate, as Cabrera has drawn 26 fewer walks this year than he did in 2010,
which is the main driver of his 22 point drop in OBP. However, that’s
swallowed up almost entirely by the change in offensive run environments over
the last two years.
打擊率增加0.005 長打率降低0.009 其他的其實差不了太多
只有一個地方是有明顯的改變 "保送"
胖卡布目前比2010年少了26次保送 OBP下降0.022
And, just so you don’t think we’re obscuring the issue by only looking at “
sabermetric” stats like walks, doubles, and double plays grounded into, here
’s a comparison based on his “run production” stats.
然後不讓你認為我們在模糊焦點 只是在看sabermetric的數據(BB,2B,GIDP....)
我們直接看打點的產量
Season Runs RBI
2010 111 126
2012 102 130
In reality, Cabrera’s 2010 and 2012 offensive performances are almost
exactly equal no matter what kinds of metrics you use. In terms of something
more accurate like batting runs above average, Cabrera was at +54.9 in 2010
and is at +54.3 this year. Even if you want to evaluate his performance
strictly by RBIs, there is essentially no difference between this year and
two years ago.
2010年跟2012年的成績幾乎相差不少 不管你用什麼樣的標準來評估
如果用batting runs above average(BRAA) 2010年是+54.9 2012年是+54.3
And yet, in that race, Cabrera finished a distant second in the MVP voting
behind Josh Hamilton. Hamilton, a center fielder who also had a tremendous
season, received 22 of the 28 first place votes that year despite the fact
that he only played in 133 games — 17 fewer than Cabrera — and had inferior
home run and RBI totals to Cabrera. However, voters decided that Hamilton’s
superior defensive value outweighed the extra quantity of playing time for
Cabrera, and gave him the award in a vote that wasn’t even close. And I don’
t recall much in the way of controversy surrounding that pick, as Hamilton
was pretty clearly the AL’s best player that year.
2010年胖卡布在MVP競賽中輸給了Josh Hamilton(在28個選票中獲得22張第一)
雖然Josh Hamilton只出賽了133場(比胖卡布少17場)
然而投票者最後選擇Josh Hamilton(他有非常棒的守備)
我其實不太記得當初爭議的點 但是Josh Hamilton的確是那年美聯最佳的球員
In reality, the only real differences between the 2010 and 2012 races are
Cabrera’s change in position — which WAR gives him credit for, by the way —
and the relative win-loss records of the teams on which the contenders play
for. Cabrera’s case might be billed as being about his amazing offensive
performance, but he had this same offensive performance in 2010, and there
wasn’t a strong push to give him the award then. A case for Cabrera as MVP
this year, but not two years ago, essentially rests on one of these three
arguments:
事實上2010跟2012的競賽 只有"兩點"差異
1.胖卡布換守備位置(WAR在守備位置上有給他補償)
2.老虎球隊的勝敗紀錄
他的確有非常棒的表現 但幾乎跟2010年差不多 2010年他沒得到MVP
如果他今年拿下MVP而不是兩年前 基本上應該是這三個論點之一
1. Cabrera’s defensive value has dramatically increased due to his move to
third base, such that an equivalent offensive performance is now worthy of a
first place vote.
因為胖卡布移防3B 讓他防守的價值急速上升
如此同等的進攻是值得投票員投給他MVP的
2. Cabrera’s individual value has dramatically increased because the Tigers
have a .530 winning percentage as a team this year, as opposed to the .500
winning percentage they had in 2010.
胖卡布個人價值上升是因為讓老虎有.530的勝率 而不是兩年前的.500
3. Trout’s 2012 season has been less valuable than Hamilton’s 2010 season,
so while Cabrera was beat out by a stronger contender two years ago, that
kind of candidate doesn’t exist this year.
Trout今年的表現比2010年Hamilton的表現還差 所以胖卡布可以擊敗Trout
You can’t make a case for Cabrera over Trout without leaning heavily on
several of those as foundational beliefs.
如果不是這三項基本的訴求 胖卡布不可能擊敗Trout
There’s actually some evidence supporting point #1, as Cabrera’s total
fielding rating compared to league average (UZR + Positional Adjustment) this
year is just -8.1 compared to the -17.5 he put up in 2010, so WAR is giving
him credit for an additional win of value with the glove because of the move
to third base and how he’s played there this year. So, that’s an argument
that actually has some teeth, but the problem is that you can’t
simultaneously lean on that piece of data as a pillar of your argument while
dismissing Trout’s value because of the unstable nature of single year
defensive performance. If you go with argument #1 as a pillar of Cabrera’s
foundation, you’re essentially also locking yourself out of #3, because any
consideration of defensive value will elevate Trout’s 2012 season over
Hamilton’s 2010. Point #1 and Point #3 are essentially mutually exclusive –
you can’t argue both at the same time.
如果是以第一點來說
根據UZR+ 胖卡布2010年是-17.5 今年則是-8.1 所以WAR已經調高他的價值
但是如果胖卡布已經調高價值 那你不得不看Trout的防守成績
而如果你採論點一 那麼論點三也是死路
因為任何的防守數據加上 都會讓Trout的2012球季比Hamilton的2010還要有價值
那麼論點一跟論點三都無用了~~
And point #2 is just kind of silly. The Tigers are on pace to finish with 86
wins and miss the playoffs, so it’s hard to see how that’s drastically
better than the 81 wins and no playoffs that they achieved two years ago,
especially considering that it’s easier to make the playoffs this year due
to the addition of the second wild card. In both 2010 and 2012, the Tigers
have the eighth best record in the American League. Basing his MVP case on
team performance just doesn’t really hold up to scrutiny.
關於論點二就有點.... 老虎這季正朝向86勝邁進 也可能不會進季後賽
很難看出跟兩年前有什麼樣的不同
何況今年有兩個外卡的機會 進季後賽比較容易一點
老虎大概在美聯排名第8名
如果MVP是根據隊伍表現 那麼也不太會是他的
Again, as Paul said in his piece a few hours ago, none of this is meant to
disparage Miguel Cabrera. Winning the Triple Crown would be a pretty neat
historical accomplishment, and the fact that Cabrera has had so many seasons
at this level speaks to his amazing consistency. The unfortunate reality for
him, however, is that Josh Hamilton was clearly better in 2010, and Mike
Trout has been clearly better in 2012. Two years ago, Cabrera had this exact
same season, and everyone agreed that the guy doing it in center field was
more valuable. There’s no reason to change our minds two years later.
然而這些說法並不是貶低胖卡布
贏得三冠王是歷史上偉大的成就 而且他已經有數個球季是有如此穩定的產出
但事實是2010年Hamilton比他好 而2012年Trout比他也好
兩年之後胖卡布打出幾乎相同的怪物成績
但大家似乎同意如果是中外野手有這樣的表現是更有價值的