出處 http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/20046509/
By Bob Cook
MSNBC contributor
Updated: 2:30 a.m. ET Aug. 6, 2007
Looking at next wave of 300-game winners
尋找下一波三百勝投手
Oswalt, Buehrle top our list, but they'll have to stay healthy
Oswalt，Buehrle 是最有可能的人選，不過他們得保持健康才行
With his 300th win on Sunday against the Cubs, Mets pitcher Tom Glavine
becomes the ninth pitcher in the last 25 years to reach that milestone. He
also ends an unprecedented era in 300-windom. This golden age of 300-game
winners beats the era of 1888-1913, when eight pitchers reached that
milestone, and when Gaylord Perry started his career, thus allowing him to
grandfather in his spitball so he could kick off the current run of 300-game
winners in 1982.
大蘋果的葛叔叔在星期天對上小熊拿到生涯第300勝，這讓他成為這25年來第九位達
到這個里程碑的投手，同時他也終結了這段空前未見的黃金年代。這一代的投手超越了
1888-1913那一代的人，那個年代總共有八位投手達成生涯300勝的里程碑。這個黃金年代
是從Gaylord Perry開始的，他和他的口水球在1982年開啟了這一段盛世。
Glavine is the 23rd pitcher to reach 300, and there’s not much hope of a
24th coming anytime soon, unless Randy Johnson (284 wins) makes a remarkable
comeback from back surgery next season at age 44, or Mike Mussina (244 wins)
at age 38 overcomes his recent struggles and finds a way to kick in a
late-late-career, Phil Niekro-style surge. Any other pitcher with more than
200 wins is in his 40s or is Pedro Martinez, whose current arm problems make
him no sure shot to get to 300, even with 206 wins at the relatively tender
age of 35.
葛叔叔是史上第23位達到300勝的投手，而短期之內我們應該不會看到第24位的出現，
除非大單位(284勝)能夠在明年以44歲的高齡從背部手術中奇蹟般地恢復，或者是老穆
(244勝)會在過了38歲之後突然爆發，像Phil Niekro一樣，(注：生涯318勝，38歲後
156勝，48歲退休)其他任何有200勝的投手要不是已經超過40歲就是Pedro Martinez，
而偉大的Pedro以35歲，生涯206勝卻很可能因為破碎的手臂而無法達到300勝。
But even though it might be a while before anyone else reaches 300, several
pitchers right now are capable of making it in another, say, 15 or so years.
儘管要好一段時間我們才會看到任何投手向300勝攻頂，不過現在有一些人選在大概
15年以後的確有可能達成。
Winning 300 games is not about greatness (as Don Sutton’s detractors will
tell you), but about being consistently good, and consistently healthy. As
Woody Allen might put it, 95 percent of having a run at 300 wins is showing
up. You have to start young, and pitch when you're old.
300場勝投並不一定就是偉大的代名詞，(比如說Don Sutton，註：生涯324勝)但代表了
穩定並且健康。伍迪艾倫可能會這樣說，95%追尋300勝的機會在於你每天都上工。
你得要很年經就開始，並且一直持續到你老了。
Reaching 40 is almost a requirement for a 300-game winner. Since 1915, around
the time pitchers stopped making about 50 or so starts a year, the only
players to reach 300 before their 40th birthday were Grover Cleveland
Alexander (37), Steve Carlton (38), Greg Maddux (38) and Eddie Plank (39).
能夠在場上投到超過40歲是必要條件，自從1915年以來，(在這之前投手可以一直投到50
歲左右)能夠在40歲之前達到300勝的只有Grover Cleveland Alexander (37)，
Steve Carlton (38)，Greg Maddux (38)，和Eddie Plank (39)。
Today’s five-starter, no-complete-game strategy might seem on the surface to
limit pitchers, who aren’t racking up 25-win seasons like they used to. But
then again, that same strategy also might lessen the chance some of the
pitchers named below will blow themselves out before age 40, as happened to
great pitchers, and sub-300-game-winners, such as Bob Gibson and Jim Palmer.
If you have arm problems, it’s tough to make it to 300: ask Tommy John (288
wins), sitting outside the Hall of Fame and more famous for being a surgery.
現今的五人輪值，以及通常不讓先發投手獨力完成一場比賽的策略，也許限制了投手累積
更多勝投，不過同時也降低了他們在40歲以前手臂爆炸的風險，比如像一些差點300勝的
投手，Bob Gibson(251)，Jim Palmer(268)等。如果你的手臂爆炸了，300勝就不太可能，
可以去問問Tommy John(288)，他進不了名人堂，而且大家都以為這只是一種手術而已。
In honor of today’s starting rotation, here are the five pitchers with the
best chances of making 300 wins. Actually, six — I’ll throw in a spot
starter because in calculating who had the best chance, one name came up that
made me rub my eyes in disbelief. Maybe he’ll be remembered as the Don
Sutton of his generation.
接下來我們要看看五個有可能達到300勝的投手，事實上是六個，其中有一個讓我不敢
相信，也許他會成為他的年代的Don Sutton。
1. ROY OSWALT, Houston
Age: 29 (30 as of Aug. 29)
Age at first win: 23
生涯首勝：23歲
Career record (as of July 30): 108-53
生涯成績：108-53
Average wins per full season (through 2006): 16.3
平均每年勝投：16.3
Estimated season he will reach 300: 2018
預計達到300勝：2018年
Estimated age at win No. 300: 41
預計達到300勝時41歲
Injury history: On the disabled list in 2003 with a groin injury. But no arm
problems
傷痛史：2003年鼠蹊部受傷，但沒有手臂受傷紀錄。
Case for reaching 300: Unrelenting consistency and greatness. He has two
20-win seasons in an era where it’s tough to get one. (And with 19 wins in
2002, he nearly has three such seasons.)
優點：穩定並優秀。有兩季拿到20勝，一季19勝。
Case against reaching 300: The current state of the Astros, which is acting
as an anchor in his numbers (though most pitchers would kill to have a
career-high ERA of 3.63, Oswalt’s present predicament). Houston finished
first or second in its division in Oswalt’s first six seasons, but won’t in
this one. Being stuck on a losing team for a while can be a drag on 300, and
the difference between Hall of Fame induction and Bert Blyleven-land (287
wins).
缺點：以現在太空人的狀況來說，前景堪慮。在Oswalt的前六個球季，太空人還能打進
分區前二，但現在已經不復從前了。待在一個不能贏球的球隊造成的差別可能是名人堂與
Bert Blyleven-land(287-250，3.31)之間這麼大。
2. MARK BUEHRLE, Chicago White Sox
Age: 28
Age at first win: 21
生涯首勝：21歲
Career record (as of July 30): 105-72
生涯成績：105-72
Average wins per full season (through 2006): 15.5
平均每年勝投：15.5
Estimated season he will reach 300: 2019
預計達到300勝：2019年
Estimated age at win No. 300: 40
預計達到300勝時40歲
Injury history: Practically nil.
傷痛史：基本上，沒有。
Case for reaching 300: Buehrle has never pitched fewer than 204 innings in a
season, nor more than 245, and presumably his one big risk of hurting himself
was taken care of when the White Sox brass banned him from sliding on the
tarp during rain delays.
優點：Buehrle 從來沒有在一季當中投超過245局，或少於204局，而他最有可能受傷的
情況是當下雨延賽時Buehrle會在球場防水布上滑來滑去(白襪球團已經禁止他再這樣做)
Case against reaching 300: Current state of the White Sox, who like their
2005 World Series foe, Houston, have seen the bottom drop out in a hurry. But
individually, Buehrle, who relies on finesse more than power, can’t go
through many more seasons like last year, when his breaking pitches didn’t
break, and he ended up a career-worst 12-13 with a 4.99 ERA.
缺點：白襪最近的戰績也不好，跟太空人差不多，而Buehrle他自己也必須避免像上個
球季的情形再度發生，他去年的變化球控球不佳，導致生涯最差的12-13，4.99 ERA。
3. C.C. SABATHIA, Cleveland
Age: 27
Age at first win: 20
生涯首勝：20歲
Career record (as of July 30): 94-62
生涯成績：94-62
Average wins per full season (through 2006): 13.5
平均每年勝投：13.5
Estimated season he will reach 300: 2021
預計達到300勝：2021年
Estimated age at win No. 300: 41
預計達到300勝時41歲
Injury history: Muscle pulls, which put him on the disabled list in 2006.
傷痛史：2006年時因為肌肉拉傷進傷兵名單。
Case for reaching 300: Sabathia, tied for the AL league in wins at 13, is
picking up his game to a pace that might allow him to reach the magic
milestone sooner than his previous seasons’ play might predict. After five
so-so years, he is again fulfilling the promise he showed while going 17-5 as
a rookie in 2001. That could make him the first black pitcher ever to reach
300 — Ferguson Jenkins is first at 284, though among African-Americans —
not African-Canadians — Bob Gibson is first at 251.
優點：本季來到13勝的Sabathia正在加緊趕路，以這個速度也許可以比原先預計的更早
達到300勝，經過了五個不怎麼樣的球季，他終於再次展現出他在菜鳥球季(17-5，2001年)
給予大家高度期望的優異資質。如果他成功達到300勝，將會是史上第一位黑人選手達到
這個里程碑。在此之前只有Ferguson Jenkins(284)，而他是個非裔加人，Bob Gibson(
251)則是非裔美人勝投數最多。
Case against reaching 300: Those five so-so years. His career ERA is 3.91,
and has been higher than 4.00 in four out of his first six seasons, including
his rookie year. Sabathia needs more 17-5s and fewer 11-10s, or else he’ll
be struggling like Mussina to reach 300 by the time he is 38.
缺點：那不怎麼樣的五個球季，他的ERA是3.91，而在他的前六個球季中有四個球季超過
4.00，包括他菜鳥的那一年。Sabathia需要更多的17-5，更少的11-10，不然當他38歲的
時候會發現他碰上跟老穆一樣的困境。
4. JOHAN SANTANA, Minnesota
Age: 28
Age at first win: 21
生涯首勝：21歲
Career record (as of July 30): 89-39
生涯成績：89-39
Average wins per full season (through 2006): 16.8
每年平均勝投：16.8
Estimated season he will reach 300: 2020
預計達到300勝：2020年
Estimated age at win No. 300: 41
預計達到300勝時41歲
Injury history: Had surgery before 2004 season to remove bone chips in his
left (throwing) elbow. But no sign of any long-term arm damage, so say two Cy
Young Awards (2004 and 2006).
傷痛史：2004年手術從左手手肘取出碎骨，不過看起來沒有長期傷害的疑慮。
Case for reaching 300: Santana is the most consistently dominant pitcher in
the major leagues today, especially once the All-Star break is over. He’s
not undefeated from July to September for his career — it just seems like
it. Might get a chance to get even more wins when good, cash-rich team signs
him after his Minnesota contract expires at the end of next season.
優點：山大王是現今大聯盟最穩定也是最具掌控力的投手，尤其是在下半球季。他生涯
從來不曾在七到九月輸球過，明年球季結束後有可能到大市場球隊，有機會拿到更多
勝投(註：美東的邪惡球隊請準備大量現金)。
Case against reaching 300: Santana got a late start toward 300 because he
spent his first four major-league seasons mostly in the bullpen — he’s in
only his fourth season as a full-time starter. But with those Cy Youngs in
his pocket, Santana could get to, say, 250 wins and still make the Hall of
Fame. Dennis Martinez (245) is the current record holder for wins by a
Latin-born pitcher.
缺點：山大王生涯前四個球季待在牛棚，因此他的起步有點晚，今年才是他的第四個完整
球季而已。不過他家裡的那些賽揚獎座有可能讓他以250勝投進入名人堂，史上最多勝的
拉丁球員是Dennis Martinez(245)。
5. CARLOS ZAMBRANO, Chicago Cubs
Age: 26
Age at first win: 20
生涯首勝：20歲
Career record (as of July 30): 78-49
生涯成績：78-49
Average wins per full season (through 2006): 15.2
平均每年勝投：15.2
Estimated season he will reach 300: 2022
預計達成300勝：2022年
Estimated age at No. 300: 41
預計達成300勝時41歲
Injury history: Some strain in his right (throwing) elbow, which got the Cubs
to restrict Zambrano’s Internet use after he claimed the repetitive stress
of e-mailing his brother caused his problems in 2005. If you want to call
whatever you do at the computer “e-mailing your brother” — hey, to each
his own euphemism.
傷痛史：2005年時冉伯牛先生宣稱和他兄弟反覆的電子郵件來往導致了他的右手手肘拉傷
，小熊隊只好限制他使用網際網路的時間。(註：作者似乎認為冉伯牛先生比較可能的是
瀏覽18禁網站)
Case for reaching 300: While all the attention was focused on whether the
constantly on-the-shelf Kerry Wood or Mark Prior would ever come back,
Zambrano emerged as the Cubs’ most consistent starter and staff ace. He
might have won the Cy Young Award last year if his last-place team hadn’t
been so lousy. His career ERA of 3.31 — it’s ranged between
2.75 and 3.66 — shows he’s not counting on his teammates to hit him out of
his jams. Then again, Zambrano went 3-for-4 the other day against Cincinnati
and is one of the best hitting pitchers in baseball, so he’s more than
capable of hitting himself out of his own jams.
優點：儘管大家都擔心當年麵包師傅造成的慘劇會不會再現，(Kerry Wood，Mark Prior)
冉伯年先生的確是現在小熊隊最穩定的Ace。如果小熊不是這麼不濟事的話，他去年就
應該拿到賽揚獎了，他的生涯ERA 3.31(最低2.75最高3.66)表示了他不是靠著隊友幫他
打下勝投的。事實上，冉伯牛先生是全大聯盟打擊最好的投手，他靠著自己來打下勝投。
Case against reaching 300: He’s a Cub. Something tragic will happen the
moment all looks sunny, right? Then again, with his contract situation, he
could be a Met or something else starting next year.
缺點：小熊隊。任何壞事都可能在一切看來光明無比的時候發生在這支球隊身上。而明
年，冉伯牛先生可能會到大蘋果或其他地方去。
6. JON GARLAND, Chicago White Sox
Age: 27
Age at first win: 20
生涯首勝：20歲
Career record (as of July 30): 90-75
生涯成績：90-75
Average wins per full season (through 2006): 14.4
平均每年勝投：14.4
Estimated season he will reach 300: 2020
預計達成300勝：2020年
Estimated age at No. 300: 40
預計達成300勝時：40歲
Injury history: Nil.
傷痛史：沒有。
Case for reaching 300: Jon Garland, a 300-game winner? Jon Garland, a
one-time All-Star, a 300-game winner? Yes, it can happen. He has had two
18-win seasons in a row, and he conceivably could have a third if the White
Sox’s terrible bullpen wasn’t so intent on giving up games. Garland’s
career ERA is a robust 4.41, but it’s been going down after a few rough
early years. Garland could be the slow-and-steady 15-gamewinner who reaches
300, the Craig Biggio of pitching.
優點：Jon Garland，300勝投手？Jon Garland，入選過一次全明星，可能達成300勝？
是的，有可能，他已經連續兩年達到18勝，而如果今年白襪的牛棚能夠像樣一點的話
可能會有連續第三年。Jon Garland 生涯ERA是有點高的4.41，不過看起來正在逐漸降
低。他可能會達到300勝，但慢一點，以每年15勝的速率，就像是投手版的Craig Biggio。
Case against reaching 300: That career ERA might be dropping, but he still
has recorded only one sub-4.00 ERA season in five full seasons as a starter.
Unlike the other starters on this list, Garland seems like a career No. 2 or
so guy, not an ace.
缺點：也許他的ERA在降低，不過在他生涯的五個完整球季之中，只有一個球季低於4，
跟前面的幾位比起來，Jon Garland比較像是個第二號先發，而不是個Ace。
But then again, wasn’t Tom Glavine usually overshadowed by Greg Maddux? You
don’t have to be great to win 300 games. Just good enough, for long enough.
不過，葛叔叔不是也一直都被瘋狗老麥比下去嗎？你不需要很偉大來贏得300勝，你只
需要投得夠好，投得夠久。