On Monday, a story that had been circulating around the Japanese press
re-emerged in the US, with Tim Kurkjian reporting that Chiba Lotte Marines
shortstop Tsuyoshi Nishioka is due to be posted this week. The Japanese
media heavily covered the story when it first broke, but died down during
the Nippon Series, which the Marines won. Now that hot stove season has
kicked into gear there’s more to talk about.
Lotte’s management is understandably not too keen on the idea of posting
Nishioka. Lotte’s management has been has made somewhat inconsistent remarks
in the media. Prior to Kurkjian’s article, team director Akira Ishikawa
commented in Sports Hochi “personally, I want to say no to a posting. I
can’t imagine how our competitiveness would go down in the case that he
isn’t here. It’s just not something I can decide, so I’ll consult with our
president [Ryuzo Setoyama, the guy Bobby Valentine had a bunch of
disagreements with].” Ishikawa was more positive in a Sanspo piece published
on the same day: “we haven’t developed a new shortstop, but I also feel
like I want to make his dream come true. If I hear something that changes
me mind I want to consider it.” The latest is that the posting hasn’t
been agreed to, and the two sides will discuss it on the 10th.
So what kind of player is Nishioka? A pretty good one. Nishioka is coming
off of a phenomenal year, which netted him the distinction of being my pick
for Pacific League MVP. I think the question that I’m likely to be asked is
how he compares to Hiroyuki Nakajima. The simple answer is that I like
Nakajima better, but I wouldn’t call you crazy if you made the case that
Nishioka’s skills are more transferable to MLB.
In the field
Nishioka has two Gold Gloves on his resume, awarded in 2005 (as a second
baseman) and 2007 (as a shortstop). My observation is that he really has
great range, but his arm is a somewhat below average as a shortstop.
Nishioka’s 2010 fielding results illustrate how traditional stats can be
misleading — he lead Pacific League shortstops in errors with 19 and
finished last in fielding percentage at .972, but he also had more assists
(440) and put-outs (222) than anyone else (data taken from this Japanese
blog). The fact that he played every inning in 2010 helps his accumulated
stats, though. Overall though, Nishioka feels more like a second baseman
to me in MLB. And the standard disclaimer about adapting from turf to
natural grass applies.
At the plate
After a career filled with nagging wrist, knee and neck injuries, 2010 was
the first season that Nishioka was healthy enough to play a full, 144-game
schedule, and he responded with a career year. Notably, he lead the Pacific
League in hits with 206, becaming the second Pacific Leaguer to surpass the
200 hit mark (the first was someone you’ve heard of). He posted a career
highs in all three slash categories, at .346/.423/.482 easily eclipsing his
previous bests of .300/.366/.463. Nishioka’s batting average was backed
by a robust .389 BABIP, so regardless of what league he plays in next year,
it will remain to be seen whether his 2010 performance was the result of
luck, a genuine step forward, or good health. My guess is that a little of
each was involved. Nishioka is not much of a home run threat, but has good
speed and will leg out the occasional triple, and swiped 22 bases in 33
attempts last year. Nishioka is a switch hitter, who hit well from both
sides of the plate last year (.387 as a righty, .329 as a lefty).
Posting
If the Marines do post him, he’ll have the benefit of being a part of a
rather weak class of middle infield free agents. At 26 he has some upside
left, but overall I see him as a Ryan Theriot/Chone Figgins type.
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/thoughts-on-nishioka