Is this guy for real?
他是真貨還是假貨？
原文連結：http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/is-this-guy-for-real/
by Sal Baxamusa
July 14, 2008
The All-Star break is upon us, and if they haven't already, teams will be
re-evaluating their position relative to the league. Are they buyers? Are
they sellers?
全明星假期已經到了，每個球團將會（如果他們還沒有開始的話）重新評估球隊內各個位
置相對於聯盟的強弱。他們應該開始兜售球員嗎？還是他們應該藉由交易來補強實力呢？
That decision depends partially on where you are in the standings, but also
on what you think your players will do in the coming months. Dumb teams will
assume that their players will put up similar numbers in the second half as
they did in the first half. But smart teams, of course, won't do that.
這個決定不只跟球隊的戰績有一些關係，也和球隊認為他們的球員在之後幾個月內會表現
的怎樣有關。白痴的球隊會單純得以為他們的球員會表現的跟上半季一樣。而當然了，聰
明的球隊不會這麼做。
Why not? Because what a player has done this year is not his true talent
level. He could be significantly better or worse, or he may be playing up to
his true talent level. But performance data are just a sampling from a
player's true talent, and half a season really isn't enough information to
say Barry Zito is cooked or that Xavier Nady has become a star.
為什麼他們不會這麼做呢？因為一個球員到目前為止的表現並不一定是他真正的實力。他
可能有超水準的驚人表現或是超水準的擺爛演出，也可能只是展現出他真正的實力。但是
這些表現出來的東西只不過是他真正實力的隨機取樣而已，所以這半個球季並不足以證明
Barry Zito 鳥掉了，或者 Xavier Nady 已經成為一個明星球員了。
As usual, a player's true talent level, or what we expect his performance to
be going forward, can be determined by creating a projection utilizing all of
his performance data—this year's, last year's, and even the year before
that. And as I've focused on recently, the easiest way to do that is to run a
simple Marcel projection.
跟其他東西一樣，球員真正的實力（或者可以稱為我們對他未來表現的預測）是可以透過
所有關於他表現的資料（今年的資料，去年的資料，甚至是前年的資料）來進行推算的。
而達成這個目的最簡單的方法（也是我最近在研究的方向）就是使用 Marcel 這個預測系
統。
Today, I'm going to give you the tools to do that for yourself—with a major
assist from Dave Studeman who helped me test and improve the initial
versions. You might use it for your fantasy team or just to see if your
favorite club should stick with a struggling player.
今天，我會把所有的工具都給你，然後你就可以自己來預測球員下半季的表現（我要特別
提一下，Dave Studeman 幫我測試以及修改最初的版本）。你可以用這些東西來該善你的
fantasy 球隊，也可以用它們來看看你喜歡的球隊是不是該繼續相信那個成績跌入谷底的
球員。
You can download a spreadsheet for pitchers here and for hitters here. Using
them is simple. Download and open the spreadsheet and find the "Paste" tab.
Enter your favorite player's name and his date of birth. Then, use our handy
search feature to find his THT player page. Copy the first block of stats
(this works best if you use Internet Explorer), all the way back to 2004
(which is as far as we go) and paste them in the appropriate place in the
"Paste" tab. The next tab, called "Quick-n-dirty Marcel hitting" (or
"Quick-n-dirty Marcel pitching") automatically computes that player's current
projection for the rest of the year and his projected 2008 totals.
你可以在 ftp://ftp.hardballtimes.com/QDMarcel_pitching.xls 下載投手的試算表，而
在 ftp://ftp.hardballtimes.com/QDMarcel_hitting.xls 可以下載打者的。使用方式很
簡單。下載並打開試算表，你可以看到一個叫做「Paste」的分頁。輸入你想預測球員的名
字和出生日期。再用 http://www.hardballtimes.com/thtstats/main/player/index.php
找出那個球員的資料。然後把第一個表格內從 2004 年開始的資料（這是這個程式的限制
）貼到「Paste」分頁內相對應的欄位（建議使用 Internet Explorer）。而同時，另一個
叫做「Quick-n-dirty Marcel hitting」的分頁（或是「Quick-n-dirty Marcel pitching
」）會自動推算出球員下半球季的表現和 2008 球季的整體成績。
Marcel has a lot of caveats. Basically, Marcel only knows three things: a
player's stats, the stats of the rest of the league, and the player's age.
Marcel doesn't know anything about injuries, parks, minor leagues or platoon
splits. But by and large, this simple system isn't a whole lot worse than the
heavy hitters like CHONE or PECOTA or ZiPS. And there's a reason why I call
them "quick-n-dirty." The spreadsheet I made is a pretty simplistic tool. It
doesn't forecast RBI or runs—sorry fantasy gurus—and the estimated playing
time is based purely on extrapolation. But it does do a pretty good job at
most of the other stuff.
Marcel 預測系統有很多要注意的地方。基本上，Marcel 只考慮三件事：這個球員表現出
來的成績，整個聯盟的平均成績，以及球員的年紀。Marcel 完全不考慮傷病，球場，小連
盟成績，或者是左打右打等因素。不過整體而言，這個預測系統比起那些重量級的 CHONE
，PECOTA，和 ZiPS 卻毫不遜色。而我把我的工具叫做「快速而且骯髒」（quick-n-dirty
）是有原因的。這個試算表非常的陽春。它並沒有包含打點以及得分等數據（fantasy 的
玩家，對不起了）而且球員上場的時間完全是由上半季的資料直接推算。不過它在其他方
面應該表現的還算不錯。
How good is this guy?
他到底有多強？
For example, Chipper Jones is currently hitting .373/.473/.613. That's pretty
darn good, but we all know that, good as Chipper is, he can't keep that up.
Pretty much nobody can. That's not a reflection on Jones; it's just the
truth. His projection for the rest of the year is a still-awesome
.316/.409/.553, which would put him at .346/.441/.585 at year's end.
Impressive.
舉例來說，Chipper Jones 現在的打擊三圍是 .373/.473/.613。這是非常嚇人的成績，不
過大家應該都知道，就算像 Chipper 這麼強的一個球員，他也沒有辦法一直維持這樣的成
績。這應該是沒有人可以做到的。我可不是想扁低 Jones，這只是事實。預測系統對他下
半球季的推測仍然是十分棒的 .316/.409/.553，而整個球季的平均會是 .346/.441/.585
。我只有一個字可以形容，強。
What about Jose Vidro? There's a blogospheric debate over how bad he is right
now. Yes, Vidro has hit terribly this year (.214/.261/.311—yeesh!), but we
can't look only at this year's stats. That would be dishonest. His current
projection for the rest of the year is .269/.333/.374. Yeah, that's bad,
especially for a DH. No, he probably couldn't help any team in the league,
unless he could still play second base acceptably. But he's not the stinky
pile of poo that M's fans make him out to be. He's more like a, well, let's
say an odorless pile of poo. Still offensive, though.
那 Jose Vidro 又如何呢？在 blog 界正在爭論著他到底有多爛。沒錯，Vidro 今年的打
擊成績實在是慘不忍睹（.214/.261/.311），不過我們不能只看今年的成績。短期的成績
是會騙人的。預測系統推測他下半季的成績是 .269/.333/.374。嗯，還是很爛，尤其是他
還是個 DH。他應該是沒有辦法幫助任何一支球隊，除非他有還辦法恢復成一個平均水準的
二壘手。但是，他並不是像水手球迷口中所說的一坨噁心的臭大便。該怎麼說呢，他比較
像是一陀沒有什麼臭味的大便。這樣好像還是很酸。
And pitchers? Bay Area whipping boy Zito is sporting a 4.77 FIP. That's not
not what you expect from a $120 million ace. Is he really that bad? Kind of,
yeah. His projected FIP for the balance of the year is a
slightly-better-but-still-not-good 4.49.
那投手呢？灣區的眾矢之的 Zito 有著 4.77 的 FIP。這不應該是一個領 1.2 億的王牌投
手該有的成績。他真的那麼爛嗎？嗯，是真的。他這個球季的整體預測 FIP 是「有點進步
但是還是很差的」4.49。
Cliff Lee has been awesome this year, posting a 2.31 ERA—and that's a legit
mark, given that his FIP is 2.37. But this is coming after years of
mediocre-to-poor performance, including a brutal 5.59 FIP last year. It's not
fair to brush off this year's hot half, but it's not fair to ignore all of
last year either. Marcel sees him posting a 3.64 FIP for the balance of the
year. That's remarkable, considering that his Marcel projection entering the
year had him tabbed for a below-average 4.37 FIP going into the year.
Cliff Lee 今年的表現太棒了，他有著 2.31 的 ERA（而由他 2.37 的 FIP 可以看出這可
不是運氣）。但他前一年的表現不過是在平均水準或以下，而且還有著 5.59 的 FIP。這
雖然不足以完全否認他今年驚人的上半季，但是我們也不能直接忽略他去年的成績。
Marcel 預測他今年整體上會有 3.64 的 FIP。和季初 Marcel 推測他會有低於平均的
4.37 FIP 相比，這可是很棒的表現。
Before I leave you, I'll share with you what Marcel thinks the
end-of-the-year leaderboards will look like (on pace for a minimum 500 PA):
在結束之前，我想告訴你 Marcel 所推測今年球季結束的打擊排行榜會是怎樣（所有列出
的球員都被預測會有超過 500 次 PA）：
Player AVG OBP SLG OPS
Pujols, Albert .337 .451 .596 1.047
Berkman, Lance .322 .424 .604 1.028
Jones, Chipper .346 .443 .584 1.027
Holliday, Matt T .331 .408 .558 .966
Rodriguez, Alex .303 .394 .567 .962
Bradley, Milton .300 .414 .546 .961
Burrell, Pat .270 .399 .538 .938
Ramirez, Hanley .311 .387 .550 .938
Utley, Chase .293 .376 .558 .934
Uggla, Dan C .274 .359 .553 .913
Those stats are a combination of performance already in the bank plus the
Marcel projection for the balance of the year. Here's who Marcel thinks are,
at this very moment, the best hitters in the league.
這個成績包含了上半季的成績以及 Marcel 對下半季的預測。而下面是 Marcel 認為目前
全聯盟最好的打者。
Player AVG OBP SLG OPS
Pujols, Albert .324 .427 .586 1.014
Jones, Chipper .316 .409 .554 .964
Ortiz, David .289 .397 .565 .963
Rodriguez, Alex .297 .396 .560 .956
Holliday, Matt T .322 .391 .556 .948
Berkman, Lance .295 .400 .546 .946
Cabrera, Miguel .317 .397 .543 .941
Howard, Ryan J .272 .376 .560 .936
Braun, Ryan J .304 .355 .571 .927
Wright, David A .307 .396 .523 .919
...and the worst (among guys who'll see significant playing time).
......以及最差的打者（這是從有很多上場機會的球員中選出來的）。
Player AVG OBP SLG OPS
Izturis, Cesar .254 .311 .337 .649
Everett, Adam .236 .288 .353 .642
Berroa, Angel .244 .286 .350 .637
Molina, Jose .236 .281 .349 .631
Bako, Paul .224 .296 .328 .625
Vizquel, Omar .239 .304 .319 .624
Cairo, Miguel .238 .295 .329 .624
Ausmus, Brad .229 .307 .312 .619
McDonald, John .237 .286 .329 .615
Pena, Tony F .239 .273 .336 .610
So go ahead, download, and enjoy!
趕快去下載並好好玩玩我們的工具吧。
References and Resources
參考資料以及資源
PS. Xavier Nady is projected at .282/.342/.467 for the rest of the year.
附註：Xavier Nady 下半季的預測表現是 .282/.342/.467。
The spreadsheets are located at the following URLs:
你可以從下面這些位置下載到文中所提得試算表：
ftp://ftp.hardballtimes.com/QDMarcel_pitching.xls
ftp://ftp.hardballtimes.com/QDMarcel_hitting.xls